Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Intel Honesty

stratechery.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

181–190 of 426 posts

Re: Intel Honesty

#181

Post by _DeadFred_ »

cogman10 wrote: post #131
closeparen wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While there are a number of technical issues with respect to the limited trickle of multifamily permits that are given, the fundamental dynamic is that engaged voters don't want to see significantly more people living in the region, and therefore it doesn't happen.

Yeah, it has a lot to do with selfishness. More housing means more people means you have a lower property value for you home in the area. Further, it means your vote becomes less powerful as the poors that live in the high rise have the same voting power as you do in your single family home.

Is it selfish to have national parks when there are people that are homeless and the government could give them literally free land?

Long ago the people that lived in the area realized that they liked where they lived and how it was, and voted to put in place rules to keep it that way. It sucks now, I and all my friends the grew up there were forced to move somewhere affordable, but it's not pure selfishness. They didn't take something away from someone else, no one else ever had it. And to expand it does inherently change the nature of what 'it' is and opens a genie that can NEVER be put back.

Re: Intel Honesty

#182

Post by flo123456 »

fluoridation wrote: post #119
encom wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>year of the Linux desktop A tangent, and I realise this phrase is a meme, but it has always bothered me. Nobody has ever defined what year of the Linux desktop actually means, so it's a phrase without any real meaning.

Roughly speaking, that running Linux as a desktop OS would be easy enough that even non-technical users would be able to do it with difficulties comparable to, say, Windows XP.

Whichever for me was in 2010 when I set up Ubuntu for my grandma and put a Firefox shortcut on her desktop and she never had any issues with her computer again. Very simple use-case but it was a lot better served than by Windows Vista at the time. These days it’s even better served by an iPad though.

Re: Intel Honesty

#183

Post by benreesman »

I’ve heard the theory that Intel is physically incapable of doing the lithography transition they need to do without missing at least one full release cycle. Which should be bad news but shouldn’t be existential.

The theory goes that any CEO who does the necessary thing will be fired, so either they won’t do it, or the board will replace them with someone who won’t do it.

That kind of market failure can destroy arbitrary value.

Re: Intel Honesty

#184

Post by ak217 »

amluto wrote: post #65
closeparen wrote: post #50

>Their pay in the Bay Area is double tsmc in taiwan for equivalent roles in raw dollar terms but the ppp differences means your better off working for tsmc in Taiwan than intel in the Bay Area. That’s not a joke. Intel are literally incapable of attracting talent from Taiwan right now. There's some whiplash in hearing constantly how the US is a corporate-dominated oligarchy, and then also seeing trillion-dollar indus…

Some of the issues are way downstream of those NIMBYs: Non-housing costs are quite low in Taiwan. Food and childcare, in particular, are so much cheaper than California that it’s hard to believe. But the NIMBYs aren’t totally in the clear. Rental housing with 3+ bedrooms (for families) is severely lacking in much of the US. Maybe fire codes are to blame. Taiwan is full of very nice new high-rise development that cont…

Absolutely true. Also I find it strange that the companies in question could easily resolve their workforce issues by forming a fund to build better/faster public transit to link up their offices with less NIMBY-dominated cities, but choose not to do so.

Re: Intel Honesty

#185

Post by SSLy »

scrlk wrote: post #120
mrsilencedogood wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So did the year of the EUV lithography happen? What year was it? (Genuinely asking, I don't know anything about chips - I'm the kind of programmer who is profoundly comforted by pretending like my CPU is like a really fast version of the thing I did in CompE 201, as opposed to reality which i gather is a bit more like a demonically possessed stone that glues together a bunch of barely understood physics that kind of…

2019, when TSMC N7+ entered high volume manufacturing.

OK, and in Intel's fabs? They're still not on EUV, right?

Re: Intel Honesty

#186

Post by angelaguilera »

madmask wrote: post #179
schmidtleonard wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The purpose of capitalism is to establish, reinforce, and perpetuate a class hierarchy where the people on the bottom must constantly pay to exist while the people on top constantly get paid to exist. This shit isn't a side effect, it's the entire point of the exercise.

Capitalism gives you opportunities to climb the ladder

Capitalism also continuously adds steps to that ladder

Re: Intel Honesty

#187

Post by closeparen »

ak217 wrote: post #184
amluto wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some of the issues are way downstream of those NIMBYs: Non-housing costs are quite low in Taiwan. Food and childcare, in particular, are so much cheaper than California that it’s hard to believe. But the NIMBYs aren’t totally in the clear. Rental housing with 3+ bedrooms (for families) is severely lacking in much of the US. Maybe fire codes are to blame. Taiwan is full of very nice new high-rise development that cont…

Absolutely true. Also I find it strange that the companies in question could easily resolve their workforce issues by forming a fund to build better/faster public transit to link up their offices with less NIMBY-dominated cities, but choose not to do so.

Transportation rights-of-way invoke all the same NIMBY problems, only worse because an individual holdout parcel sinks the whole thing.

What they can do is run buses on existing public roads. And they do that. It's still like 1.5+ hours from the Tri-Valley to SF.

Re: Intel Honesty

#188

Post by ak217 »

pchristensen wrote: post #145
amluto wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some of the issues are way downstream of those NIMBYs: Non-housing costs are quite low in Taiwan. Food and childcare, in particular, are so much cheaper than California that it’s hard to believe. But the NIMBYs aren’t totally in the clear. Rental housing with 3+ bedrooms (for families) is severely lacking in much of the US. Maybe fire codes are to blame. Taiwan is full of very nice new high-rise development that cont…

The primary problem for getting 3+ bedroom apartments built in America is school funding. School districts are mostly locally funded (sometimes with a portion funded by the state government) and almost entirely from property taxes. At a very high level, schools are funded by the acre and their expenses scale with the 2nd-5th bedrooms in their district. A 4 bedroom apartment or condo and a 4 bedroom house will usually…

I don't think your analysis is valid in California. Public high schools in California receive most of their funding on a per-pupil, attendance-weighted basis from the state on a redistributive basis (all property taxes from across the state are pooled and redistributed).

Re: Intel Honesty

#189

Post by cbanek »

Sidequest:

“I’m going to do Windows and then I’m going to do Windows Mobile and I’m going to do Windows embedded.” (all on intel x86)

As someone who worked on Windows Mobile and Windows Embedded, it's funny because that's what management was hoping, but it was so different. I don't think any of the phones had an x86 chip in them, although that was our debugging setup so we could use vastly more powerful desktop machines as devkits (although we still had devices to). Having to port parts of Windows to ARM and even MIPS was a giant PITA.

Windows Embedded is closer since it was based on XP, but also a completely different branch from what I remember from Win Mobile.

A lot of people think it's easy to port things, and hard to write things. With really, really complicated software, it's still really hard just to port things.

Re: Intel Honesty

#190

Post by 015a »

pphysch wrote: post #175
015a wrote: post #75

I'm not sure if I buy the thesis entirely (that thesis most aptly being: "Gelsinger does have one fatal flaw: he still believes in Intel, and I no longer do.") The biggest reason is geopolitics: If escalated confrontation happens with China, Intel becomes one of the most valuable companies on the planet, period. TSMC will finish western fabs eventually, but the delta-t on when they become competitive (tech, capacity…

> The biggest reason is geopolitics: If escalated confrontation happens with China If escalated confrontation happens with China, and that is massive IF that is dependent on insanely belligerent action from the West like giving nukes to Taiwan, then new semiconductor manufacturing will be the least of our worries. A Chinese blockade on Chinese and East Asian exports to US would result in total economic collapse in US…

There are a thousand different ways that "escalated confrontation" with China can fall short of "direct conflict" while still negatively impacting TSMC's ability to allocate production to the west. That's why I said "escalated confrontation". If the only ways you can think of it happening is what Zeihan says, then that's simply a failure of your own creativity.

One moderately realistic one: Taiwan experiences something similar to what happened in Hong Kong, during a time when US leadership is not motivated to aid in its defense. This isn't a situation where China and the US are at war; we're still trading with China; and broadly speaking the economies of both countries are fine. But, Taiwan isn't, and whether it surfaces as key TSMC talent/tech leaving the country, military action, or just PRC subtly shifting TSMC's allocation priorities toward the homeland: western chip manufacturers could benefit. This isn't seemingly likely to happen in the next four years given the stated priorities of both sides of the political isle; but the right is shifting more-and-more isolationist every year, and no one arguing in good faith would speak with such certainty as you have on what happens 2028 and onward.

Post reply on HN