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Intel Honesty

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Re: Intel Honesty

#101

Post by geodel »

amluto wrote: post #65
closeparen wrote: post #50

>Their pay in the Bay Area is double tsmc in taiwan for equivalent roles in raw dollar terms but the ppp differences means your better off working for tsmc in Taiwan than intel in the Bay Area. That’s not a joke. Intel are literally incapable of attracting talent from Taiwan right now. There's some whiplash in hearing constantly how the US is a corporate-dominated oligarchy, and then also seeing trillion-dollar indus…

Some of the issues are way downstream of those NIMBYs: Non-housing costs are quite low in Taiwan. Food and childcare, in particular, are so much cheaper than California that it’s hard to believe. But the NIMBYs aren’t totally in the clear. Rental housing with 3+ bedrooms (for families) is severely lacking in much of the US. Maybe fire codes are to blame. Taiwan is full of very nice new high-rise development that cont…

All true. The question still remains how many US folks can /want to go live in Taiwan vs How many Taiwanese can / want to live in US suburban dystopia. And I say this as immigrant to US increasingly disenchanted by suburbia.

From what I read housing price to income ratio has increased ~2.5 times from 6.5 to 15.8 in last two decades in Taiwan. And it seems to be worse in new developments in city like Taipei.

At a top echelon of Taiwan society or as a tourist it must be nice live, roam around in pleasant urban environments compare to US suburbia but I am not sure average Taiwanese are finding life great with stagnating wages and unaffordable housing.

Re: Intel Honesty

#102

Post by sodality2 »

wing-_-nuts wrote: post #96
sodality2 wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Efficient market hypothesis dictates the price accurately reflects valuations. So if a stock price is down relatively, it's because the wealth of information available on it indicates its decline.

I too, used to be a dyed in the wool boglehead that believed in efficient markets. The missing small cap value / international premium over the past twenty years has me convinced otherwise today.

You raise a valid objection:

    To put the US equity outperformance of the last 15 years in perspective, US equities historically have outperformed non-US equities by 2.3 percentage points annualized since 1926 and by 2.7 percentage points in the post-WWII period. In our strategic asset allocation models for clients, we assume one percentage point of outperformance annualized [0]
Not sure this really breaks the idea of small cap vs large cap (since there's been swings and reversals in that in just the past 15 years IIRC), just the international equity differences.

Also, just going to note that 20 years is really not that long and it's reasonable for valuation swings to take that long to reverse.

[0]: https://privatewealth.goldmansachs.com/outlook/2024-isg-outl...

Re: Intel Honesty

#103

Post by wmf »

scrlk wrote: post #10

> in the late 2010’s Intel got stuck trying to move to 10nm, thanks in part to their reluctance to embrace the vastly more expensive EUV lithography process TBH, it's easy to say this with the benefit of hindsight. Throughout most of the 2010s, EUV lithography was like the "year of the Linux desktop" - i.e., this year will be the year where EUV was suitable for high volume manufacturing. I don't really blame Intel fo…

Nobody used EUV for 10 nm though. Even 7 nm doesn't need EUV. This kind of error calls the rest into question.

Re: Intel Honesty

#104

Post by ghaff »

davidw wrote: post #35
SoftTalker wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd say Linux desktops have been good enough for a long time, but never broke into the mainstream for the reasons you cite. ChromeOS is the closest thing I guess, but outside of schools and a few other institutional uses, Chromebooks are not very popular.

They're pretty incredible machines for the price. I bought one a year and a half ago in an emergency, as the networking on my laptop died over the course of a few days and I needed something for browsing and email. I got the Linux dev environment set up on the Chromebook and I actually kept it instead of getting a new expensive laptop.

They are. The problem is that they are for the educational market. Especially with Google's exit from hardware, they're basically mostly cheap devices for kids. And, if you do build a nice one, you could probably get a lower-end MacBook Air for about the same price which would be almost as low-maintenance to use if you wanted it to be.

Re: Intel Honesty

#105

Post by wmf »

jhallenworld wrote: post #90

The Altera merger pain is maybe enlightening. Altera 10-series FPGAs were massively delayed due to Intel's 10 nm fab problems. But I speculate that there was also a big difference in toolchains, does anyone know for sure? I mean Altera was using TSMC previously, and I presume were using industry standard tools: Cadance / Synopsis. But I would guess Intel was running their fab on home-grown tools... what is the status…

Historically Intel did use non-standard EDA tools which is one reason they had trouble getting outside customers onto 10 nm (besides the fact that 10 nm didn't work). Some Intel acquisitions like Fulcrum and Barefoot never used Intel fabs.

I think they're supporting a more standard toolchain starting with 18A.

Re: Intel Honesty

#106

Post by kilotaras »

amluto wrote: post #65
closeparen wrote: post #50

>Their pay in the Bay Area is double tsmc in taiwan for equivalent roles in raw dollar terms but the ppp differences means your better off working for tsmc in Taiwan than intel in the Bay Area. That’s not a joke. Intel are literally incapable of attracting talent from Taiwan right now. There's some whiplash in hearing constantly how the US is a corporate-dominated oligarchy, and then also seeing trillion-dollar indus…

Some of the issues are way downstream of those NIMBYs: Non-housing costs are quite low in Taiwan. Food and childcare, in particular, are so much cheaper than California that it’s hard to believe. But the NIMBYs aren’t totally in the clear. Rental housing with 3+ bedrooms (for families) is severely lacking in much of the US. Maybe fire codes are to blame. Taiwan is full of very nice new high-rise development that cont…

> Non-housing costs are quite low in Taiwan. Food and childcare, in particular, are so much cheaper than California that it’s hard to believe.

Those are downstream of housing restrictions to a large extent. From "Housing theory of everything" [0]:

Consider a cleaner living in Alabama. In 1960 they could move to NYC and earn wages 84% higher, and still end up with 70% higher income after rent. In 2010, they could move to New York City and become 28% more productive, and earn a wage 28% higher – and reduce the surplus of workers back home, letting them demand higher pay. But since housing costs are so much higher, the net earnings and living standards of someone like this would fall if they moved today, and wouldn’t be worth it. The same would be true for plumbers, receptionists and other professions that allow other people to specialise at what they’re best at and minimise the time they spend on things like DIY and answering the phone. By contrast, top lawyers get wage boosts that are still sufficiently higher to justify a move in both 1960 and 2010, even after the higher rents they’ll have to pay.

[0] https://worksinprogress.co/issue/the-housing-theory-of-every...

Re: Intel Honesty

#107

Post by ryandrake »

reducesuffering wrote: post #88
ryandrake wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It isn't required for success, either. If Elon Musk was never born, it is likely we'd still have SpaceX and Tesla equivalents, but with a better human being at the helm. A parallel universe also exists where Microsoft, Apple, and Oracle were not founded by raging assholes. The fact that these companies are all run by jerks is a terrible coincidence, but it does not necessarily need to be so.

> If Elon Musk was never born, it is likely we'd still have SpaceX and Tesla equivalents I'm perturbed by Elon's politics and hypocrisy, but this is absolutely not true in anywhere near the same timeframe.

So, out of the seven billion people on the planet, only Elon Musk could have made these companies what they are? No other person on Earth (given access to equivalent capital) could do it?

Re: Intel Honesty

#108

Post by phonon »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #46
nightski wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not saying you are wrong but personally I'd view the stock as an attractive perk right now since it is so low. Whereas if I were joining a company such as Nvidia I'd honestly be kind of worried. Historical performance isn't really a great indicator here.

By what metric do you consider INTC to be low? I took a look because I'd be happy picking up some cheap INTC, but it still looks expensive to me.

It's trading significantly below book? $120 B vs $82 B.

Downside is that most of their assets are their fabs...

Re: Intel Honesty

#109

Post by encom »

scrlk wrote: post #10

> in the late 2010’s Intel got stuck trying to move to 10nm, thanks in part to their reluctance to embrace the vastly more expensive EUV lithography process TBH, it's easy to say this with the benefit of hindsight. Throughout most of the 2010s, EUV lithography was like the "year of the Linux desktop" - i.e., this year will be the year where EUV was suitable for high volume manufacturing. I don't really blame Intel fo…

>year of the Linux desktop

A tangent, and I realise this phrase is a meme, but it has always bothered me. Nobody has ever defined what year of the Linux desktop actually means, so it's a phrase without any real meaning.

Re: Intel Honesty

#110

Post by structural »

ghaff wrote: post #94
lotsofpulp wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Part of the equation must be the simple fact that the US is big and has the option to give many people the 0.1+ acre detached single family home with a yard and 2+ car driveway/garage lifestyle (and schools with more exclusive student populations). In smaller places, that simply isn’t an option, so there exists greater demand for family living in high rises.

Yeah, very few people who want and can afford 3-bedroom homes want to be renting apartments. I assume that even in New York City, the number of 3-bedroom condos is pretty minimal as a percentage because most people who want that kind of space just move to West Chester or Connecticut.

This is not universally true, and it's pretty common to hear people who moved out to the suburbs hate it, but they needed the third or even second bedroom! Slightly larger condos simply didn't exist on the market, or were priced at astronomic rates (double the $/sqft compared to a 1bd unit).

Looked at a dozen midrise buildings this year across DC/Phila/NYC markets, some new/recent construction, some office conversions. Most buildings had zero 3bd units except for maybe a single penthouse, a 2bd unit every other floor, and the entire rest of the building evenly divided between studios and 1bd units in the 400-600sqft range. The competition for the 2bd units was unreal, in several cases people were offering the entire year's lease upfront, in cash, to secure an apartment.

It really is that competitive and the demand is there, the supply is not.

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