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NASA's SLS rocket's Mobile Launcher-2 increase from $383M to $2.7B

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Re: NASA's SLS rocket's Mobile Launcher-2 increase from $383M to $2.7B

#31

How is it that government contractors can't build this thing on even a 9-year engineering schedule (July 2019–September 2028) when SpaceX is iterating almost exactly the same thing, on a timescale of months? They've already launched 4 SLS-sized vehicles, and have very visibly been redesigning the ground-support equipment each time around. The next launch for instance (next month!) debuts mechanical arms attached to t…

all space projects are R and D projects....how do I know? jet engine technology took 50 years before we could go years without a test fighter pilot dying.... fun fact...its part of the legal boilerplate astronauts sign...

Sure, but the amount of R&D varies.

It's frequently called the "Shuttle Launch System" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shuttle-derived_vehicle) because "it uses existing Shuttle tech!" was one of the big selling points.

Re: NASA's SLS rocket's Mobile Launcher-2 increase from $383M to $2.7B

#32

How is it that government contractors can't build this thing on even a 9-year engineering schedule (July 2019–September 2028) when SpaceX is iterating almost exactly the same thing, on a timescale of months? They've already launched 4 SLS-sized vehicles, and have very visibly been redesigning the ground-support equipment each time around. The next launch for instance (next month!) debuts mechanical arms attached to t…

This is just my opinion, but I think a lot of it has to do with requirements.

NASA is first and foremost about prestige (even above science IMO. This is also - again my opinion - why NASA hasn't been back to the moon in 50 years. There's little prestige to be gained for an expensive operation). With prestige as the backdrop, it makes them very risk adverse. There are layers and layers of requirements made to reduce risk. To their credit, SpaceX is willing to fail more than NASA and it allows them to iterate much faster.

This is also my opinion part of the reasons why NASA wanted the CCP to begin with: it allows them to skirt many of the requirements. The somewhat ironic part is that NASA pathways to alleviate those requirements, but it's somewhat common that project/programs want to go through the waiver process and formerly accept that risk.

There is a fairly well-known dynamic in govt contracting where a contractor low-bids to get the contract and then makes money on change-orders. If they were to accurately bid on all the NASA requirements, they risk their bid being so high they would never be awarded the contract. This is a similar dynamic to the traditional cost-plus contracting paradigm.

There is also some irony in that SpaceX may be the victims of the same dynamic. As failure occur, they may layer on more requirements that ultimately slow the process down (see the supplier quality issues related to an F9 strut failure). Given enough time, there is a risk that added requirements turn them into the dinosaurs they are replacing.

Also, as others have brought up, NASA has additional requirements they must manage (e.g., political risk) that SpaceX has less exposure to.

Re: NASA's SLS rocket's Mobile Launcher-2 increase from $383M to $2.7B

#33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Falcon Heavy, fully expendable, can send about 15,190kg to TLI (Trans Lunar Injection). The Saturn V sent about 48,600kg to TLI. The current SLS can send about 27,000kg to TLI, and block 2 is expected to send between 43,000kg and 47,000kg to TLI. Could the Falcon Heavy be used on a multi-part moon mission? No doubt, but it's not in the same weight class as SLS.

The Falcon Heavy can ship can ship 16.8k kg to Mars [1] and that's at a higher delta V distance/cost than TLI. In general the SLS can carry around 50% more than a Falcon Heavy, but the Falcon Heavy (fully expended) costs 5-10% as much. [1] - https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-heavy/

I’m honestly shocked more “assemble in orbit” type mission structures haven’t been proposed. Falcon Heavy is just so convenient yet ignored.

Re: NASA's SLS rocket's Mobile Launcher-2 increase from $383M to $2.7B

#34
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's tower on a large steel platform but it also includes significant GSE (ground support equipment) - cabling and cryogenic plumbing to connect to the rocket to let it be fueled and readied for launch, all connected via mechanical arms to pull the quick disconnects away from the rocket, in some cases into armored boxes to protect against the rocket exhaust. Plus a crew access arm to let astronauts board, elevators s…

What, this isn't even an new crawler/transporter? It's just the gantry and plumbing?

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Re: NASA's SLS rocket's Mobile Launcher-2 increase from $383M to $2.7B

#35

How is it that government contractors can't build this thing on even a 9-year engineering schedule (July 2019–September 2028) when SpaceX is iterating almost exactly the same thing, on a timescale of months? They've already launched 4 SLS-sized vehicles, and have very visibly been redesigning the ground-support equipment each time around. The next launch for instance (next month!) debuts mechanical arms attached to t…

NASA is a political jobs program from a funding perspective. There isn't any way around that. This creates uncertainties, distractions and perverse incentives all around: 0. Everything is dramatically complicated by the artificial divisions of work across states needed to get enough political support. Grossly inefficient from the start, and inflexible into perpetuity. 1. Initial schedules are incentivized to be unrea…

>NASA is a political jobs program

This is the truth, and while you could frame it as a negative, I see it as a huge positive.

Because NASA has been subsidizing space for decades the US has a tremendous among of trained workers for aero-space. It was exactly that workforce that venture-capital based space industry was able to source talent from. I doubt spaceX would have been possible without NASA dumping billions into boondoggles. Now it is self-reinforcing. NASA trained talent for/funds industry, industry now trains talent for/supplies NASA. Space economy the easy way, just costs a few hundred billion bootstrap it.

Re: NASA's SLS rocket's Mobile Launcher-2 increase from $383M to $2.7B

#36
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's tower on a large steel platform but it also includes significant GSE (ground support equipment) - cabling and cryogenic plumbing to connect to the rocket to let it be fueled and readied for launch, all connected via mechanical arms to pull the quick disconnects away from the rocket, in some cases into armored boxes to protect against the rocket exhaust. Plus a crew access arm to let astronauts board, elevators s…

What, this isn't even an new crawler/transporter? It's just the gantry and plumbing?

No need for a new one; the two they built for the Apollo program still work just fine.

Note that the crawler-transporter doesn't hang around at the pad during the launch - after setting the mobile launcher down at the pad, it drives away back towards the VAB until it's needed next.

During the Apollo era, it also transported the Mobile Service Structure - a tower with work platforms that allowed access to much of the spacecraft on top of the rocket.

Re: NASA's SLS rocket's Mobile Launcher-2 increase from $383M to $2.7B

#37

How is it that government contractors can't build this thing on even a 9-year engineering schedule (July 2019–September 2028) when SpaceX is iterating almost exactly the same thing, on a timescale of months? They've already launched 4 SLS-sized vehicles, and have very visibly been redesigning the ground-support equipment each time around. The next launch for instance (next month!) debuts mechanical arms attached to t…

Keep in mind that Starship has never made it to orbit.

Re: NASA's SLS rocket's Mobile Launcher-2 increase from $383M to $2.7B

#38
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Musk wasn't going crazy, it would make sense to kill the SLS.

Do you think Musk's antics are having a notable negative effect on SpaceX? There's no doubt that's the case with Tesla.

This is why Shotwell mostly runs the show at SpaceX. Unlike Tesla, SpaceX runs like well oiled machine and is kicking butt.

Re: NASA's SLS rocket's Mobile Launcher-2 increase from $383M to $2.7B

#39
post #6

OAG report on Launcher 2: https://www.oversight.gov/report/NASA/NASA%E2%80%99s-Managem... The contractor is Bechtel. Note, the Senate Launch System is already a huge success: money was transferred from the taxpayer to the contractors as a "jobs program". It doesn't matter if anything flies.

That't s a good link, thank you.

> NASA intends to keep Bechtel accountable to the cost and schedule agreed to in December 2023.

It's mind boggling how they heck is Bechtel qualified to handle this project? Bechtel is at the center of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cochabamba_Water_War / https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/bechtel-battles-against-.... Talk about an agency that supposedly cares to look progressive and caring for the environment. Then they pick Bechtel as their contractor for the SLS.

> We also found that Bechtel’s performance drove the significant cost increases and schedule delays to the design and development of the ML-2. The current contract value of $1.1 billion includes $594 million of Bechtel overruns

Shouldn't somebody there fire Bechtel. I guess that significantly reduces your chance of retiring at Bechtel after leaving your NASA job...

Re: NASA's SLS rocket's Mobile Launcher-2 increase from $383M to $2.7B

#40

How is it that government contractors can't build this thing on even a 9-year engineering schedule (July 2019–September 2028) when SpaceX is iterating almost exactly the same thing, on a timescale of months? They've already launched 4 SLS-sized vehicles, and have very visibly been redesigning the ground-support equipment each time around. The next launch for instance (next month!) debuts mechanical arms attached to t…

NASA is a political jobs program from a funding perspective. There isn't any way around that. This creates uncertainties, distractions and perverse incentives all around: 0. Everything is dramatically complicated by the artificial divisions of work across states needed to get enough political support. Grossly inefficient from the start, and inflexible into perpetuity. 1. Initial schedules are incentivized to be unrea…

> They were never cheap, but they did operate with incredible speed at that time.

Actually, they were good, fast, and pretty cheap. The Saturn V cost per kg was much something around $5000/kg (compared to Delta IV Heavy at around $12000 kg), and could send a ton more into orbit than anything until Starship. If we'd continued down that development line instead of the insanity of the Shuttle, we'd really be somewhere today.

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