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The Resurrection of Intel Will Take More Than Three Days

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Re: The Resurrection of Intel Will Take More Than Three Days

#21

Post by Rinzler89 »

skocznymroczny wrote: post #20
Rinzler89 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Theres also talk about their shift to GPU, maybe Battle Mage will deliver in this year Considering the stock tanking and the announced layoffs, I fear Battle Mage will be unfortunate collateral damage along the line. Really unfortunate timing as that was the only competition we could hope for to the Nvidia and AMD GPU duopoly who jacked up their prices, and Intel was actually committed to the new GPUs constantly pus…

On the other hand, if Intel is still committed to the AI business, it all hinges on the GPUs at the moment.

The AI bubble could pop by that time leaving them broke with overpriced doorstops in stocks. That's like building Bitcoin miners before it popped.

Too risky to go all in on AI now when Nvidia already has a stronghold monopoly that even AMD can't break.

Re: The Resurrection of Intel Will Take More Than Three Days

#22

Post by moffkalast »

high_na_euv wrote: post #11

Lets see what Lunar Lake (low power, mobile SoC) delivers in next 2 months If it will deliver and match Apples Mx designs in terms of energy eff and perf, then ARMs expansion on the client side will slow down, I guess. No point in porting stuff for marginal gains since ISA does not matter as much as ppl think https://chipsandcheese.com/2021/07/13/arm-or-x86-isa-doesnt-... Theres also talk about their shift to GPU, ma…

Would be great to see something that rivals the Strix Halo and the Z1 at apologetic prices :)

Right now everyone's still busy shoving the not-very-efficient N100 into every possible product that exists and making up some new ones too, while half of them end up underperforming from improper cooling.

Re: The Resurrection of Intel Will Take More Than Three Days

#23

Post by minkles »

__alexs wrote: post #17
minkles wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They’re not run by bean counters. This particular issue will be QA’ed out and Intel’s big customers know that.

Isn't the whole problem that it wasn't QA'd out precisely because Intel no longer know how to ship good products? Sure Intel have the resources to make their customers whole on this screw up but the concern is that Intel have had a pattern of poor execution in the fast 10-15 years and this is just the most recent example.

There are few absolutes so stop trying to reduce the problem to one such as "Intel bad" because that's disingenuous.

It's really hard to reason about things until you hit large quantities of hardware in production, separate statistical failures from non-statistical failures, separate end user idiocy from real issues and do the analysis, then reproduce it conclusively. This is not helped by the target end of the market demand being interested in running things close to the line on boards kicked out by the lowest bidder. On top of that you have large vendors like Dell and Lenovo who take forever to feed information back on warranty claims because their end user support is fucking awful.

Basically it's very hard to reason about this pre-production despite every effort and QA step in the book being followed.

Re: The Resurrection of Intel Will Take More Than Three Days

#24

Post by Rinzler89 »

keyringlight wrote: post #19
mamonster wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yh, 28+16 is basically pretty much all you need for industrial semis. The other key part I think is basically going to be military, I've watched an interview with one of the big wigs at Baikal and he claimed that the Russian miltech industry would be fully self-sustaining if there was domestic 28nm capacity.

I remember one comment from during covid when the supply chain was messed up (possibly from Intel) saying productivity could be improved a lot for non-leading edge chips by getting designs off relative ancient processes to relatively recent, which would let the industry modernize old fabrication plants. It requires work for that new design though, and moving away from thoroughly tried and tested

How could it come from Intel when Intel wasn't a fab for hire back then? It was most likely TSMC who said that not Intel.

Re: The Resurrection of Intel Will Take More Than Three Days

#25

Post by minkles »

keyringlight wrote: post #19
mamonster wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yh, 28+16 is basically pretty much all you need for industrial semis. The other key part I think is basically going to be military, I've watched an interview with one of the big wigs at Baikal and he claimed that the Russian miltech industry would be fully self-sustaining if there was domestic 28nm capacity.

I remember one comment from during covid when the supply chain was messed up (possibly from Intel) saying productivity could be improved a lot for non-leading edge chips by getting designs off relative ancient processes to relatively recent, which would let the industry modernize old fabrication plants. It requires work for that new design though, and moving away from thoroughly tried and tested

That was quite naive. The problem is there is little motivation to do that. The designs can't just be scaled down, they need to be recompiled from scratch with the target process' standard cells and verification. That work is expensive as fuck. Then there's packaging and managing the supply chain and data around it. Why bother when demand causes prices to go up? Just pocket the money and wait. If you spend that on more capacity and reengineering you just burn the money.

Re: The Resurrection of Intel Will Take More Than Three Days

#26

Post by ulfw »

Rinzler89 wrote: post #10
minkles wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m putting money on this. Despite these setbacks, AMD aren’t cutting it in the OEM market. The fabs will be used even if it’s boring shit.

>The fabs will be used even if it’s boring shit. This is what a lot of people who have no idea about the semi industry miss because they get all their education from news headlines. Which is what I assume leads to Intel's massive stock drop. People voting on FUD, kind of like the opposite of the hype that pushed Nvidia to the moon, but when you asked investors who bought Nvidia, what Nvidia actually makes, most are c…

Uhuh.

I guess intel lays off another 15% of people because of ... 'FUD' and 'people who have no idea about the semi industry'

Yea.

Re: The Resurrection of Intel Will Take More Than Three Days

#27

Post by minkles »

ulfw wrote: post #26
Rinzler89 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The fabs will be used even if it’s boring shit. This is what a lot of people who have no idea about the semi industry miss because they get all their education from news headlines. Which is what I assume leads to Intel's massive stock drop. People voting on FUD, kind of like the opposite of the hype that pushed Nvidia to the moon, but when you asked investors who bought Nvidia, what Nvidia actually makes, most are c…

Uhuh. I guess intel lays off another 15% of people because of ... 'FUD' and 'people who have no idea about the semi industry' Yea.

It's just lay off season. Wait until all the other companies go "oh hey us too" in a few weeks.

Also look at the market tank. What's the usual reaction to that? Trim costs to improve shareholder appearance.

Re: The Resurrection of Intel Will Take More Than Three Days

#28

Post by xattt »

Rinzler89 wrote: post #21
skocznymroczny wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, if Intel is still committed to the AI business, it all hinges on the GPUs at the moment.

The AI bubble could pop by that time leaving them broke with overpriced doorstops in stocks. That's like building Bitcoin miners before it popped. Too risky to go all in on AI now when Nvidia already has a stronghold monopoly that even AMD can't break.

Intel has cranked up its dev support and market cornering machine in the past. Let’s see if it can do that again without a near-monopoly market status.

Re: The Resurrection of Intel Will Take More Than Three Days

#29

Post by AnimalMuppet »

minkles wrote: post #7
epups wrote: post #3

Intel seems 100% tied to its outcomes as a foundry now. If there is any disruption in chip prodution from Taiwan for example, I can see its stock doubling in price.

I’m putting money on this. Despite these setbacks, AMD aren’t cutting it in the OEM market. The fabs will be used even if it’s boring shit.

But boring stuff has low margins. Intel has been living in a high-margin world at least since the 8086. They currently don't know how to survive on low margins. I'm not sure they can learn.

Re: The Resurrection of Intel Will Take More Than Three Days

#30

Post by Cthulhu_ »

Rinzler89 wrote: post #21
skocznymroczny wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, if Intel is still committed to the AI business, it all hinges on the GPUs at the moment.

The AI bubble could pop by that time leaving them broke with overpriced doorstops in stocks. That's like building Bitcoin miners before it popped. Too risky to go all in on AI now when Nvidia already has a stronghold monopoly that even AMD can't break.

And AI will pop soon, there's reports that the AI companies and their suppliers have dumped billions in R&D and investments but are slow to start earning that back.
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