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The Resurrection of Intel Will Take More Than Three Days

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Re: The Resurrection of Intel Will Take More Than Three Days

#11
Lets see what Lunar Lake (low power, mobile SoC) delivers in next 2 months

If it will deliver and match Apples Mx designs in terms of energy eff and perf, then ARMs expansion on the client side will slow down, I guess.

No point in porting stuff for marginal gains since ISA does not matter as much as ppl think

https://chipsandcheese.com/2021/07/13/arm-or-x86-isa-doesnt-...

Theres also talk about their shift to GPU, maybe Battle Mage will deliver in this year

Re: The Resurrection of Intel Will Take More Than Three Days

#12
post #3

Intel seems 100% tied to its outcomes as a foundry now. If there is any disruption in chip prodution from Taiwan for example, I can see its stock doubling in price.

Devils Advocate: If there is no disruption in Taiwan, and TSMC continues to execute as it has, and Intel continues to execute as is has (not), then Intel might go to $0 or survive only because of government subsidies and military contracts.

NVIDIA, AMD, Apple and other companies seeking cutting edge performance will choose the most advanced node to stay competitive. Being the second best foundry has historically not been good business.

This is an extreme scenario, of course.

Re: The Resurrection of Intel Will Take More Than Three Days

#13

Lets see what Lunar Lake (low power, mobile SoC) delivers in next 2 months If it will deliver and match Apples Mx designs in terms of energy eff and perf, then ARMs expansion on the client side will slow down, I guess. No point in porting stuff for marginal gains since ISA does not matter as much as ppl think https://chipsandcheese.com/2021/07/13/arm-or-x86-isa-doesnt-... Theres also talk about their shift to GPU, ma…

>Theres also talk about their shift to GPU, maybe Battle Mage will deliver in this year

Considering the stock tanking and the announced layoffs, I fear Battle Mage will be unfortunate collateral damage along the line.

Really unfortunate timing as that was the only competition we could hope for to the Nvidia and AMD GPU duopoly who jacked up their prices, and Intel was actually committed to the new GPUs constantly pushing updates and fixes.

There's no point in rooting for Intel's downfall here as some people seem to take pleasure in, as then AMD will just jack up their prices as they've done in the past, since they're a business not a charity, and only acted nice to consumers while they were the underdog but will not hesitate to milk us dry the moment they own the market like Intel and Nvidia did.

Re: The Resurrection of Intel Will Take More Than Three Days

#14
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m putting money on this. Despite these setbacks, AMD aren’t cutting it in the OEM market. The fabs will be used even if it’s boring shit.

>The fabs will be used even if it’s boring shit. This is what a lot of people who have no idea about the semi industry miss because they get all their education from news headlines. Which is what I assume leads to Intel's massive stock drop. People voting on FUD, kind of like the opposite of the hype that pushed Nvidia to the moon, but when you asked investors who bought Nvidia, what Nvidia actually makes, most are c…

> To put this into perspective, the new TSMC fab being built in Germany will tape out 28/22nm nodes

Add to that those older processes are more mature, having been refined for decades, get higher yields, and are far cheaper as well.

Re: The Resurrection of Intel Will Take More Than Three Days

#15
post #9
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I’m putting money on this. I would not. There is nothing to indicate Intel leadership is capable of executing. Bean counters are not the kind of leadership you need in a changing environment.

They’re not run by bean counters. This particular issue will be QA’ed out and Intel’s big customers know that.

I have not seen any indication of Intel being a well run company in the past 15 years. Mostly a series if missteps and lost opportunities.

Re: The Resurrection of Intel Will Take More Than Three Days

#16
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m putting money on this. Despite these setbacks, AMD aren’t cutting it in the OEM market. The fabs will be used even if it’s boring shit.

>The fabs will be used even if it’s boring shit. This is what a lot of people who have no idea about the semi industry miss because they get all their education from news headlines. Which is what I assume leads to Intel's massive stock drop. People voting on FUD, kind of like the opposite of the hype that pushed Nvidia to the moon, but when you asked investors who bought Nvidia, what Nvidia actually makes, most are c…

Yh, 28+16 is basically pretty much all you need for industrial semis. The other key part I think is basically going to be military, I've watched an interview with one of the big wigs at Baikal and he claimed that the Russian miltech industry would be fully self-sustaining if there was domestic 28nm capacity.

Re: The Resurrection of Intel Will Take More Than Three Days

#17
post #9
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I’m putting money on this. I would not. There is nothing to indicate Intel leadership is capable of executing. Bean counters are not the kind of leadership you need in a changing environment.

They’re not run by bean counters. This particular issue will be QA’ed out and Intel’s big customers know that.

Isn't the whole problem that it wasn't QA'd out precisely because Intel no longer know how to ship good products? Sure Intel have the resources to make their customers whole on this screw up but the concern is that Intel have had a pattern of poor execution in the fast 10-15 years and this is just the most recent example.

Re: The Resurrection of Intel Will Take More Than Three Days

#19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The fabs will be used even if it’s boring shit. This is what a lot of people who have no idea about the semi industry miss because they get all their education from news headlines. Which is what I assume leads to Intel's massive stock drop. People voting on FUD, kind of like the opposite of the hype that pushed Nvidia to the moon, but when you asked investors who bought Nvidia, what Nvidia actually makes, most are c…

Yh, 28+16 is basically pretty much all you need for industrial semis. The other key part I think is basically going to be military, I've watched an interview with one of the big wigs at Baikal and he claimed that the Russian miltech industry would be fully self-sustaining if there was domestic 28nm capacity.

I remember one comment from during covid when the supply chain was messed up (possibly from Intel) saying productivity could be improved a lot for non-leading edge chips by getting designs off relative ancient processes to relatively recent, which would let the industry modernize old fabrication plants. It requires work for that new design though, and moving away from thoroughly tried and tested

Re: The Resurrection of Intel Will Take More Than Three Days

#20

Lets see what Lunar Lake (low power, mobile SoC) delivers in next 2 months If it will deliver and match Apples Mx designs in terms of energy eff and perf, then ARMs expansion on the client side will slow down, I guess. No point in porting stuff for marginal gains since ISA does not matter as much as ppl think https://chipsandcheese.com/2021/07/13/arm-or-x86-isa-doesnt-... Theres also talk about their shift to GPU, ma…

>Theres also talk about their shift to GPU, maybe Battle Mage will deliver in this year Considering the stock tanking and the announced layoffs, I fear Battle Mage will be unfortunate collateral damage along the line. Really unfortunate timing as that was the only competition we could hope for to the Nvidia and AMD GPU duopoly who jacked up their prices, and Intel was actually committed to the new GPUs constantly pus…

On the other hand, if Intel is still committed to the AI business, it all hinges on the GPUs at the moment.
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