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Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

washingtonpost.com

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Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#91

Post by tim333 »

skhunted wrote: post #38
mdorazio wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The obvious counterpoint to this argument is what happened in Hong Kong. A diplomatic resolution seems unlikely to have a net-positive outcome for Taiwan under the current CCP regime.

I do not understand Xi’s abandonment of Deng’s wise policies. The One China, Two Systems approach was working and had it gone well may have induced Taiwan to similarly integrate with the PRC. Now, I doubt that will ever happen.

Xi seems your standard dictator who wants to control everything - HK, Taiwan, south china sea, overseas critics and so on. It's a shame we don't still have Deng.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#92

Post by tim333 »

kkfx wrote: post #85

Just to clear some facts: - China (Popular Republic of) have NO NEED to invade Taiwan (or Republic of China, that's what they call themselves) because an aero-maritime blockade would suffice to starve Taiwan to death; - they do not do so simply because they want Taiwan semiconductor industry, witch is still ahead of their own domestic one, otherwise Taiwan is damn easy to erase; - being a small HYPER-dense island Tai…

China would have problems with an aero-maritime blockade if the US opposed it.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#93

Post by tim333 »

I'm not sure fighting a ground war would make much sense for Taiwan. If they can stop a Chinese invasion it would be by taking out approaching ships and aircraft with missiles. If China can land troops they'd probably be better off surrendering and being another Hong Kong.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#94

Post by stogot »

maxglute wrote: post #51
wahern wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan did have secret nuclear weapons program in the 70s or 80s, with cover from their nascent nuclear power facilities. When the US caught wind they forced Taiwan to shut the program down. I'm not sure if China knew about it at the time, but I imagine these days it would be impossible to keep it secret from China--too many spies.

Yes PRC knew, hence TW nuclearizing is non starter. TW/ROC was/is still thoroughly infiltrated by PRC intelligence, if there's credible hint they're moving from nuclear latency/threshold to actual nuclearization (PRC redline), the relevant facilities would be destroyed - no need for PLA boots on ground or telescoped build up, every inch of TW is within 10 minute strike of mainland based ordnances. TW nuclear turnkey…

Is there a good book on this history?

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#95

Post by ethbr1 »

littlecosmic wrote: post #35
ethbr1 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US could also secretly transport tactical nuclear weapons to Taiwanese airbases, then announce that Taiwan was now protected under a similar nuclear guarantee to Europe. Any invasion triggers release of the devices into Taiwanese operational control.

This plan worked out so well last time it was tried in Cuba :)

US nuclear MRBMs were withdrawn from Italy and Turkey, and the US publicly committed to not invading Cuba.

That's a decent deal.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#96

Post by stogot »

godelmachine wrote: post #74
maxglute wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes PRC knew, hence TW nuclearizing is non starter. TW/ROC was/is still thoroughly infiltrated by PRC intelligence, if there's credible hint they're moving from nuclear latency/threshold to actual nuclearization (PRC redline), the relevant facilities would be destroyed - no need for PLA boots on ground or telescoped build up, every inch of TW is within 10 minute strike of mainland based ordnances. TW nuclear turnkey…

I totally disagree with the last paragraph. Shedding blood != waging war. China has never dared until now, and will never dare in the future, to engage in a heads-on conflict against the USA. It has skirmishes and conflicts with almost every neighbour. The PRC defence forces do not have the worldwide fighting experience which the US has. Nuclear deterrence acts strongly against the PRC, and they won’t do anything stu…

They did in Korea

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#97

Post by ganeshkrishnan »

dang wrote: post #75
ganeshkrishnan wrote: post #2

[flagged]

Could you please stop posting unsubstantive comments and flamebait? You've unfortunately been doing it repeatedly. It's not what this site is for, and destroys what it is for. If you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and taking the intended spirit of the site more to heart, we'd be grateful. I suppose I should add that this is not a response to your political views, whatever the…

The whole post is low quality simping for war in one more geography pushed by the thin veneer of drum beats of the US military media.

It's the same "Iraq has wmd" Bs all over again pushed by these trash rags.

Of course it will be "low quality and flamebait" for y'all

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#98

Post by stogot »

kkfx wrote: post #84
hartator wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe dragged their feet in both ww as well. No one wants war.

Actually UK (where a civil war seems just started) ruling class desperate need a war to remain in power, USA are in a far better position, but their ruling class still need a war to avoid a civil one. Israel ruling class desperately need to keep the war up or they'll go to jail so... At least three powers desperately look for war. Of course, the people do not want wars, but so far most people in the world have forgot…

Which UK civil war?

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#99

Post by jmclnx »

worstspotgain wrote: post #25
mdorazio wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The obvious counterpoint to this argument is what happened in Hong Kong. A diplomatic resolution seems unlikely to have a net-positive outcome for Taiwan under the current CCP regime.

Taiwan has obviously been watching the Hong Kong integration closely. Had it gone much better, Taiwan would have probably agreed to something similar. Frankly I think they were actually expecting much worse. An EU-style arrangement seems ideal in the medium term. It lets Taiwan have a positive long-term influence on Chinese politics, while preventing HK-style crackdowns in the other direction.

No it won't, China will eventually impose its policies on Taiwan. It is just a matter of time.

What China did to HK was blatantly breaking a treaty with the UK. Do you think for the minute Taiwan does this EU thing the same will not eventually happen ?

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#100

Post by gedy »

stogot wrote: post #98
kkfx wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually UK (where a civil war seems just started) ruling class desperate need a war to remain in power, USA are in a far better position, but their ruling class still need a war to avoid a civil one. Israel ruling class desperately need to keep the war up or they'll go to jail so... At least three powers desperately look for war. Of course, the people do not want wars, but so far most people in the world have forgot…

Which UK civil war?

Likely talking about Southport riots: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_riots
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