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Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

washingtonpost.com

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Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#61

Post by worstspotgain »

bobthepanda wrote: post #47
worstspotgain wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It makes sense because it functions as a bridge to eventual reunification. And the EU includes e.g. Luxembourg and Germany. The arrangement transfers some matters to unified control while retaining country sovereignty.

The thing is that in EU they are two of 27. Being 1 of 4 is not so good, particularly when 1 is so big and the other two (Macau, HK) are defanged, and a federal devolution to the provinces of China is not in the cards.

Well no one is doubting that the federal portion of the framework would be mainland-dominated, just like Germany has way more seats in the EU parliament than Luxembourg. But Taiwanese democracy (and military control) would be unaffected.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#63

Post by maxglute »

worstspotgain wrote: post #25
mdorazio wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The obvious counterpoint to this argument is what happened in Hong Kong. A diplomatic resolution seems unlikely to have a net-positive outcome for Taiwan under the current CCP regime.

Taiwan has obviously been watching the Hong Kong integration closely. Had it gone much better, Taiwan would have probably agreed to something similar. Frankly I think they were actually expecting much worse. An EU-style arrangement seems ideal in the medium term. It lets Taiwan have a positive long-term influence on Chinese politics, while preventing HK-style crackdowns in the other direction.

From PRC perspective, HK integration went poorly for PRC interests because HK failed to implement national security law on their own (which btw they were suppose to pre 50 year handover) - they simply never took the One Country part of One Country Two Systems seriously. And TBH neither will TW with how much culture diverged over generations, hence the sweeter 1C2S deal PRC offered TW where they got to keep political system and even their own military got taken off the table a few years ago. Political reality is PRC T1 is pretty comfy now, mainlanders don't see TW/HK as "betters" like in 80s/90s, there's no appetite for PRC domestic audience to give concessions to TW or HK to have disproportionate influence over mainland with less than 1% of the population, especially when their system isn't viewed as particularly functional. Apart from baizuos, the amount of PRC who looks at TW politics and think "I want that" is smaller than than most democracygud crowd thinks.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#64

Post by skhunted »

SllX wrote: post #43
skhunted wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have thousands of years of examples of two “blood kin” groups attacking each other. In addition to this is the fact that not all peoples with roots in present day PRC are Chinese. Tibet is a region of PRC that is not Chinese, for example.

Party leadership is Han Chinese and everyone else is a subject of the Party-owned and operated State within PRC jurisdiction.

Yes. I was referring to the comment about “blood kin”. Not all peoples native to present day PRC borders are “blood kin” and certainly not all people from Taiwan are Han.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#65

Post by worstspotgain »

maxglute wrote: post #63
worstspotgain wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan has obviously been watching the Hong Kong integration closely. Had it gone much better, Taiwan would have probably agreed to something similar. Frankly I think they were actually expecting much worse. An EU-style arrangement seems ideal in the medium term. It lets Taiwan have a positive long-term influence on Chinese politics, while preventing HK-style crackdowns in the other direction.

From PRC perspective, HK integration went poorly for PRC interests because HK failed to implement national security law on their own (which btw they were suppose to pre 50 year handover) - they simply never took the One Country part of One Country Two Systems seriously. And TBH neither will TW with how much culture diverged over generations, hence the sweeter 1C2S deal PRC offered TW where they got to keep political…

I don't think this has to be necessarily sold as the PRC giving concessions to TW. It's basically a linear combination, where alpha is being ramped from 0 to 1:

   current_state = alpha * one_country + (1 - alpha) * two_countries
Neither the PRC nor TW benefits from war if it can be avoided. This is a much better alternative.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#66

Post by maxglute »

worstspotgain wrote: post #65
maxglute wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From PRC perspective, HK integration went poorly for PRC interests because HK failed to implement national security law on their own (which btw they were suppose to pre 50 year handover) - they simply never took the One Country part of One Country Two Systems seriously. And TBH neither will TW with how much culture diverged over generations, hence the sweeter 1C2S deal PRC offered TW where they got to keep political…

I don't think this has to be necessarily sold as the PRC giving concessions to TW. It's basically a linear combination, where alpha is being ramped from 0 to 1: current_state = alpha * one_country + (1 - alpha) * two_countries Neither the PRC nor TW benefits from war if it can be avoided. This is a much better alternative.

That's potentially something for next gen TWers to decide, too much anti PRC sentiment on TW right now. Need a multiple more election cycles before TW get jaded with (still relatively nascent) democracy, already seeing that this election cycle. But will ultimately take next gen, assuming there's enough numbers with TWs bad demographics for new voting cohorts going through TW economic stagnation (assuming it continues) and look at next gen HKers who are basically fine post NSL, and doing well integrating with mainland, and see perhaps option not so bad to war. Even then it's a stretch, and that's decades out, with soft 2049 deadline.

The problem is as PRC military modernizes and regional force balances shift more in PRC favour, I see them benefitting massively from war, especially broader one with US+co. PRC can live with taking TW (by whichever means), but what PRC really wants is US out of backyard, and TW is prime casus belli for participating in one, or rather not avoiding one if US intervenes. Longer US tries to contain, dance away from strategic ambiguity, the more perverse PRC incentives get.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#67

Post by ianburrell »

Mountain_Skies wrote: post #5
ganeshkrishnan wrote: post #2

[flagged]

Depleted stores from fighting in Ukraine plus a hot war in the Middle East probably would make the defense of Taiwan impossible. If I'm Taiwan, I really don't want things in the Middle East to get out of control.

The weapons need for Ukraine and Taiwan are mostly different. For the US, Ukraine is mostly ground combat and strike. Taiwan would be all naval and warplanes. There are a few overlaps, like anti-tank missiles and Patriot missiles.

The money is different with Taiwan being able to buy or build weapons. Taiwan does need to increase their defense spending. They should license build weapons, and then sell the excess to Ukraine.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#68

Post by ganeshkrishnan »

nashashmi wrote: post #62
encoderer wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We were never at war with Eurasia. We’ve always been at war with east asia.

We were always at war with those who dont align with us. Russia. China. Middle east nationalism.

you forgot to add Latin America, Africa, South East Asia. Basically 90% of the world.

One of the geographical trick question is "Which country has the US NOT bombed?" and not many people can answer this.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#69

Post by worstspotgain »

maxglute wrote: post #66
worstspotgain wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think this has to be necessarily sold as the PRC giving concessions to TW. It's basically a linear combination, where alpha is being ramped from 0 to 1: current_state = alpha * one_country + (1 - alpha) * two_countries Neither the PRC nor TW benefits from war if it can be avoided. This is a much better alternative.

That's potentially something for next gen TWers to decide, too much anti PRC sentiment on TW right now. Need a multiple more election cycles before TW get jaded with (still relatively nascent) democracy, already seeing that this election cycle. But will ultimately take next gen, assuming there's enough numbers with TWs bad demographics for new voting cohorts going through TW economic stagnation (assuming it continues…

Nothing would do more to get the US out of the PRC's backyard than if the TW crisis is resolved amicably with an EU-style arrangement.

I think the PRC is aware that if there is a PRC-TW war, there is nothing that will stop Japan from ramping up their military and acquiring a nuclear deterrent. The situation on the Korean peninsula is even easier to destabilize.

I'm reassured by the fact that the PRC has not taken steps to convert its economy to internal demand. It's still in export-led growth mode (not coincidentally the same industrialization model used by TW and HK.)

Except for TW, no one would lose more economically than the PRC if there is war.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#70

Post by siffin »

worstspotgain wrote: post #17

If there ever was a major conflict with a diplomatic alternative, this is it. China's attitude towards Taiwan is mostly petty and dates back to the drunken bar fight with Chiang Kai-shek, who's been dead for 50 years. The key to peace is the general understanding that the two countries will be reunited at some unspecified future point. Historically, this has been the keystone that let the doves carry the day. In the…

I know nothing of the history, but I always imagined part of this was wanting control over the chip factories.

If I were China, I'd be infuriated watching all the best tech get made just offshore and having it all under pretty much western control.

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