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Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

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Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#251

Post by culi »

knodi123 wrote: post #212
avsteele wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The National Lawyers Guild twitter profile reads: "Human rights over property interests since 1937. Fighting for liberation, organizing in solidarity with radical movement leaders." https://x.com/NLGnews They are certainly not impartial.

Yeah, and Hitler said he was a national socialist. We don't need to judge truth based on the words found in random twitter bios. We can judge Maduro based on his actions- disappearing the opposition leader and permanently hiding local election tallies are not the actions of someone who trusts vindication by a fair and open system.

Each local voting location prints out its own ballot results. These are available to any local who wants to see them. Independent analyzers are putting together photos of these print-outs right now to try to confirm or challenge the results as we speak. As in the US, independent citizens volunteer to run and oversee these ballot locations. It would be impossible for Maduro to "permanently [hide] local election tallies"

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#252

Post by olalonde »

culi wrote: post #130
worstspotgain wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's technically possible that that was not their weed and their meth in their pants because those were not their pants. However when they have a mile-long rap sheet for selling drugs, it weakens their argument a bit.

What's the mile long rap sheet though? The group that's alleging fraud (AltaVista) is using images of printed receipts from different voting places as a sample to estimate the final vote. That group also said it's same technique resulted in election outcomes that are within 2 points or less of the announced outcome for 2021, 2018, and 2015. This seems like a new and unique accusation for Venezuela Source: https://www…

It seems Maduro was way behind in the polls.

https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-venezuelas-2024...

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#253

Post by wil421 »

culi wrote: post #184
stateofinquiry wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd never heard of the National Lawyer's Guild. According to Wikipedia: "The National Lawyers Guild (NLG) is a progressive public interest association of lawyers, law students, paralegals, jailhouse lawyers, law collective members, and other activist legal workers, in the United States." "Activists" not generally compatible with "impartial". Some coverage of the situation I found very helpful is available here: https…

> I'd never heard of the National Lawyer's Guild This is surprising! I certainly have. Have you heard of the Carter Center? I hadn't till now. > "Activists" not generally compatible with "impartial". Hmmm I don't think I agree with this logic. Or, imo, if you took it seriously, you'd have to excuse the Carter Center just as well. Regardless, I don't see how your link supports this statement. It just seems to be an AI…

How can you be creating a voting app and never heard of the Carter Center? They’ve observed elections in 40 counties since 1989.[1] they’ve even been critical of US elections.

[1]https://www.cartercenter.org/peace/democracy/observed.html

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#254

Post by culi »

kergonath wrote: post #136
pydry wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> Gee I wonder why he might be paranoid about foreign operatives trying to violently oust him Because he’s an unpopular dictator who knows fairly well for having seen it in the recent past that you can go very quickly from getting 99% of the vote in an election to dead in a ditch? In his position you’re either paranoid or dead. This does not make him a better person.

You can have that personal belief, but independent analyses of past election results have upheld their validity. If he's a dictator, he's one that's earned the popular vote of Venezuela multiple times. Perhaps this time it's different

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#255

Post by fortran77 »

avsteele wrote: post #199
culi wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

The National Lawyers Guild twitter profile reads: "Human rights over property interests since 1937. Fighting for liberation, organizing in solidarity with radical movement leaders." https://x.com/NLGnews They are certainly not impartial.

The "National Lawyers Guild" is certainly not impartial, but you can't honestly say that "The Carter Foundation" is either. They pick sides all the time.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#257

Post by foobarqux »

tptacek wrote: post #152
culi wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

I'm not sure I understand this battle-of-experts thing happening here. The Venezuelan authorities released the vote totals. They work out to exactly 51.2% vs 44.2%. That did not happen in the real world. Could not have. We don't need the Carter Foundation to tell us these results are false. They are manifestly false.

If you read the addendum to the article they provide a perfectly plausible explanation: namely that (only) rounded percentages were provided to an intermediary and from there they back-calculated the counts.

Given that the US has claimed vote rigging in the past in Venezuela without evidence contrary to the determination of international observers (and has and is trying to overthrow the government to install a US-backed one) claims of vote rigging should be viewed with an enormous amount of skepticism.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#258

Post by user3939382 »

mihaaly wrote: post #87
user3939382 wrote: post #36

[flagged]

Thinking that the US state department controls math - and the Venezuelan vote system's integrity is above mathematics - is a new low. A joke comes to mind: Children are giggling and misbehaving in class so the math teacher storms out: - If you do not pay attention then 80% of the class will fail the tests! Someone from back row: - Bollocks! We aren't that many in the class! Was that you from the back row?

I didn't say "US state department controls math" that's a nice strawman. I said there's a reasonable explanation for the anomaly but the real reason you're seeing this is because of the State Dept's dissatisfaction with the election. I'd hope at least the crowd on HN would be smart enough not to be duped by the establishment but I guess not.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#259

Post by diegoholiveira »

alephnerd wrote: post #175
marcosdumay wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but it's Chamber of Deputies has the actual power Just to point for anybody reading this and trying to understand Brazil, that this is a huge simplification that may not hold for other events.

Agreed! Brazil has a very complex federal quasi-presidential system! Please please please read academic books about the political history of Brazil or contemporary politics in Brazil instead of listening to a rando like me on the internet! I'd recommend reading "Modern Brazil: A Social History", "The Brazilian Constitution of 1988: a comparative appraisal", "Constitutional Engineering in Brazil: The Politics of Feder…

> Please please please read academic books about the political history of Brazil or contemporary politics in Brazil instead of listening to a rando like me on the internet!

LOL

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#260

Post by lazyeye »

AI_beffr wrote: post #250

[flagged]

Not sure if related but also a book on this as well:-

https://www.amazon.com/Stealing-Your-Vote-Inside-Election/dp...

Whether or not there was election fraud I don't know. All I know is I cannot trust anything the mainstream media has to say on the topic (or any other topic for that matter).

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