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Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

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Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#201
post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of this seems irrelevant when the official Venezuelan percentages released add up to 109%. They didn't even try to make it look right, even in the most basic ways.

Where are you getting 109% from?

Journalist on Twitter debunked that. Not it's making the rounds.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#203
post #146

More on this. The Carter Foundation, the only impartial observers who were in Venezuela for the election, and who previously defended Venezuela's election system following Chavez's 2004 win, has called on Maduro's government to release local vote tallies, which apparently it is never going to do: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/31/world/americas/venezuela-...

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The numerical problem does not hinge on the reputability of any particular observer organization, though. You can just verify it on a calculator yourself!

Similarly, the call for local vote tallies is not unreasonable. Venezuelan law dictates they should have been made available by the government, and they were not. Though a lot of people took cell phone photos of the voting machine printouts locally; see e.g. the thread at https://x.com/DavidRomro/status/1817782928279007350 .

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#204
post #146

More on this. The Carter Foundation, the only impartial observers who were in Venezuela for the election, and who previously defended Venezuela's election system following Chavez's 2004 win, has called on Maduro's government to release local vote tallies, which apparently it is never going to do: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/31/world/americas/venezuela-...

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So much the worse for the National Lawyers Guild then! The numbers are undeniably fake.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#205
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the results are legitimate, how come independent polls were giving 30 percentage points less to Maduro than he obtained? Why were international entities not allowed to observe? And what about the multiple instances of harassment of opposition candidates? I'm not a fan of US imperialism, but that doesn't mean you need to support any thug whose rethoric opposes the US, going so far as to deny evident reality.

Maybe you should look up who funded the "independent polls".

Maybe Maduro isn't as popular as you think, and you don't need to invoke a conspiracy to explain his ouster.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#206
post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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The National Lawyers Guild twitter profile reads: "Human rights over property interests since 1937. Fighting for liberation, organizing in solidarity with radical movement leaders." https://x.com/NLGnews They are certainly not impartial.

They are impartial if you consider relentlessly pushing radical communist agendas and disregarding information that hurts your political allies to be impartial. More uncomfortable facts: Maduro has killed tens of thousands of political dissidents nearly 8 million Venezuelans have fled the country under his regime [0]. And exit polls overwhelmingly favored the opposition [1].

0. https://www.unrefugees.org/emergencies/venezuela/#:~:text=Mo....

1. https://www.edisonresearch.com/edison-research-conducts-exit...

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have the "right" to have a revolution too - many countries treasure the revolutions they had. They can amend the constitution and make another democracy. They can also amend the constitution and make a dictatorship. Or just have a dictatorship without bothering. Those do not need constitutions at all. To have a vote that turns a democracy into a non-democracy is a meta-democratic vote, not a democratic vote. Abu…

A dictator is just someone with absolute power. How he got the power is orthogonal. He doesn’t have to gain power through insurrection or a revolution, he can gain it inside a democratic system. In fact in Ancient Rome, where the term comes from, the Dictator was appointed by congress in times of crisis.

Indeed, dictators are dictators, including all those in your examples. In the cases I brought up, an elected leader can turn into a dictator by not leaving when they lose an election, canceling regular elections, faking the vote totals, etc. One Person, One Vote, One Time.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#208
post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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The National Lawyers Guild twitter profile reads: "Human rights over property interests since 1937. Fighting for liberation, organizing in solidarity with radical movement leaders." https://x.com/NLGnews They are certainly not impartial.

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Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a really bad thing and a reason not to trust the entire system. They should report the absolute number of votes at each counting station.

I am talking about publicizing on media - the raw data of Bulgarian elections is available for download in real time during the counting and afterward [0], including the scanned protocols of each polling station and the video recording, which is now required. Even if the voting is electronic in particular (well, most) stations, there's still a paper protocol signed by the members of the section's committee. A tweet,…

Well, nobody else is talking about the headline numbers. That was the miscommunication.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#210
post #146

More on this. The Carter Foundation, the only impartial observers who were in Venezuela for the election, and who previously defended Venezuela's election system following Chavez's 2004 win, has called on Maduro's government to release local vote tallies, which apparently it is never going to do: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/31/world/americas/venezuela-...

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If you want to claim to be impartial, you need to make a case that you are not biased. The NLG is far from that.
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