Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

191–200 of 536 posts

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#191

Post by riku_iki »

culi wrote: post #146
suzzer99 wrote: post #17

More on this. The Carter Foundation, the only impartial observers who were in Venezuela for the election, and who previously defended Venezuela's election system following Chavez's 2004 win, has called on Maduro's government to release local vote tallies, which apparently it is never going to do: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/31/world/americas/venezuela-...

[flagged]

> The National Lawyers Guild was also an observer

they sent 5 observers only per https://truthout.org/articles/maduro-wins-reelection-for-thi...

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#193

Post by nikolay »

marcosdumay wrote: post #151
nikolay wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not necessarily. If the person announcing was given the number of votes and rounded percentages, then this could explain it. For example, in my country, they always report only turnout as a percentage with a single decimal and the share of each candidate/party with up to 2 decimals, never the number of votes - who cares about the absolute numbers anyway?

That's a really bad thing and a reason not to trust the entire system. They should report the absolute number of votes at each counting station.

I am talking about publicizing on media - the raw data of Bulgarian elections is available for download in real time during the counting and afterward [0], including the scanned protocols of each polling station and the video recording, which is now required. Even if the voting is electronic in particular (well, most) stations, there's still a paper protocol signed by the members of the section's committee.

A tweet, an article, or a chart on TV doesn't prove anything, as they are not official documents.

[0]: https://results.cik.bg/

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#196

Post by knowaveragejoe »

sam36 wrote: post #183
notjoemama wrote: post #84

I recall having read about elections in Africa and the troubles they faced. I can't find it now, but there was one particular website offering a very detailed but rigorous approach to determining the legitimacy of elections. I'll offer this article from the BBC as a stand in for the criteria (from 2016): https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-37243190 Vote rigging: How to spot the tell-tale signs 1. Too many voters 2.…

[flagged]

We're still clinging to this in 2024? Wow.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#197

Post by drexlspivey »

worstspotgain wrote: post #190
oceanplexian wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In this case the question would be, do citizens in a democracy have the right to dissolve their government peaceably, provided they meet whatever threshold is required in that system (Could be a super majority, for the sake of argument)? I’d argue it must be or it’s not really a democracy.

They have the "right" to have a revolution too - many countries treasure the revolutions they had. They can amend the constitution and make another democracy. They can also amend the constitution and make a dictatorship. Or just have a dictatorship without bothering. Those do not need constitutions at all. To have a vote that turns a democracy into a non-democracy is a meta-democratic vote, not a democratic vote. Abu…

A dictator is just someone with absolute power. How he got the power is orthogonal. He doesn’t have to gain power through insurrection or a revolution, he can gain it inside a democratic system. In fact in Ancient Rome, where the term comes from, the Dictator was appointed by congress in times of crisis.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#198

Post by bandyaboot »

culi wrote: post #146
suzzer99 wrote: post #17

More on this. The Carter Foundation, the only impartial observers who were in Venezuela for the election, and who previously defended Venezuela's election system following Chavez's 2004 win, has called on Maduro's government to release local vote tallies, which apparently it is never going to do: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/31/world/americas/venezuela-...

[flagged]

This is a strangely belligerent statement from an organization tasked with being impartial observers. I don’t know what to make of it, but it seems very odd.

edit: The use of the term “opposition” seems like a bit of a tell.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#199

Post by avsteele »

culi wrote: post #146
suzzer99 wrote: post #17

More on this. The Carter Foundation, the only impartial observers who were in Venezuela for the election, and who previously defended Venezuela's election system following Chavez's 2004 win, has called on Maduro's government to release local vote tallies, which apparently it is never going to do: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/31/world/americas/venezuela-...

[flagged]

The National Lawyers Guild twitter profile reads:

"Human rights over property interests since 1937. Fighting for liberation, organizing in solidarity with radical movement leaders."

https://x.com/NLGnews

They are certainly not impartial.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#200

Post by dkarl »

forgetfulness wrote: post #133
a0123 wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Chilean intelligence being the black hand behind the protestors rising up against a stolen election is pretty far fetched, South American countries haven't meddled to that level in one another since the XIX century, which was more of a diplomatic free for all in much of the world, so you also saw secret treaties, sponsored coups, puppet Governments, and all that. Maduro had promised to let international observers in,…

I'd love to have election observers here, but it would be political suicide for any politician to suggest it. Most Americans detest the idea that any influence from outside could improve anything here.
Post reply on HN