Coming from a family that lived in soviet russia (and still partly is), this reminds me of Putin’s 85% approval rating. But if you ask anybody in private, nobody voted for him…
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Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
161–170 of 536 posts
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#162This should remind us that "One Person, One Vote" can all too easily slip into "One Person, One Vote, One Time." For Venezuela that one time was in ~1998.
I guess it might be quite ironic but if people want to vote in a dictatorship, don’t they have the right to under a true democracy?
No, that's a meta-democratic vote, not a democratic vote. Many constitutions disqualify insurgents and revolutionaries from running for office for this reason. At a minimum you'd have to follow the super-majority process for amending the constitution if there is one.
In practice, it's no different from having a revolution. Might as well wear the shoe if it fits. Congrats to the generalissimo dictator!
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#163Earlier quoted context omitted.
The other commenters point at the explanation but don't explain it rigorously IMO. Here's how I'd say it. 60% is a nice, round percentage. In an honest election, this is just as likely to be reported as any nearby percentage, like 59.7% or 60.3%. As you mention, any particular percentage is equally (and extremely) unlikely. SUppose this you estimate the chance of this occurring, given an honest election, is 1/1000. 6…
Yeah, they just forgot to report 59.869280705993% instead of 60%. They would have got away with it too, if it weren't for those cunning statisticians. They just forgot to come up with a random, credible number. Happens to the best of us I guess. To think they could have got away with it if only they hadn't forgotten. That´s what you get when you defer the dirty work to interns on their first day, I guess. Which you a…
> They would have got away with it too
Well, on this case they wouldn't. The smoking gun is their refusal to publish the counting totals, the round ratio is just some extra confirmation.
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#164Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Given Lula's past dedication to (sic) Chavezism Brazil has quasi-presidential system, but it's Chamber of Deputies has the actual power. In the 2000s, Lula's PT was the largest party (usually around 20-25% of the total seats) and could as such strongarm smaller leftist parties into a governing coalition with an absolute majority. Lula won the presidential election in 2022, but his party PT was the 3rd largest, and…
Twitter (Alperovitch / Silverado Policy, someone influential enough to be sanctioned by Russian gov.) and HN is what surfaced the Russian invasion months before it happened. No academic book or Axios or Politico article was there to inform you conclusively that early. Lesswrong and HN were also much earlier (Jan '20) to the Covid epidemic, a major geopol issue, than your sources. I appreciate the recommendations, but…
> Twitter (Alperovitch / Silverado Policy, someone influential enough to be sanctioned by Russian gov.) and HN is what surfaced the Russian invasion months before it happened
The CSIS [0], Atlantic Council [1][2], Politico [3], and the IISS [4] warned about an impending Russian Offensive in violation of the Minsk Agreements months before Feb 2022.
> Alperovitch
Alperovitch had the benefit of having cofounded Crowdstrike and having worked closely with the NSC on multiple issues regarding Cybersecurity Policy, Russia-US relations, and China-US relations for almost 20 years.
He was absolutely synthesizing the same sources as the ones I provided during that time period.
[0] - https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-possible-invasion-ukra...
[1] - https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/is-putin-...
[2] - https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-ne...
[3] - https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/21/baltic-allies-ukrai...
[4] - https://www.iiss.org/en/online-analysis/online-analysis/2021...
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#165To play the devil's advocate: It's possible that the person making the announcement was only given the rounded percentages and the total number of votes, and then "created" the number of votes per candidate to fit to the format of the announcement. That would be sloppy, but not malicious.
The article has been updated to mention this theory > Commenter Ryan points out that you could also explain this data pattern as a result of sloppy post-processing, if votes were counted correctly, then reported to the nearest percentage point, and then some intermediary mistakenly multiplied the (rounded) percentages by the total vote and reported that. I have no idea; you'd want to know where those particular numbe…
I hope you're right. If there's anything more insulting than having an election tampered with, it's having it tampered with... poorly. Like, you couldn't even bother to lie precisely?
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#166I think we are going to have to give up anonymity in the name of democracy. Unless you can confirm that your vote has been correctly counted, how can you ever be certain what they have done with it?
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#167Earlier quoted context omitted.
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I can't find much about the Carter Foundation, but Edison Polling—the organization that released the exit poll that showed the opposition winning— does have a long history of criticism for being US-backed and consistently producing results that favor US interests. Meanwhile, the most respected pollster in the country, Hinterlaces, released an exit poll that estimated right around the actual results (54% vs 51%) https…
All of this seems irrelevant when the official Venezuelan percentages released add up to 109%. They didn't even try to make it look right, even in the most basic ways.
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#168[flagged]
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#169Earlier quoted context omitted.
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I'm not sure I understand this battle-of-experts thing happening here. The Venezuelan authorities released the vote totals. They work out to exactly 51.2% vs 44.2%. That did not happen in the real world. Could not have. We don't need the Carter Foundation to tell us these results are false. They are manifestly false.
That isn't the vote total, it is a provisional count. They're claiming "80% reported" which is already a tell that whoever is putting out the figures isn't treating them especially accurately. It is plausible that the figures are incompetence rather than malice and someone was back-calculating the number of votes from an accurate-enough percentage.
Pretty unlikely though. It isn't that hard to count votes.
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#170Earlier quoted context omitted.
> As someone who worked in the space, stop. It's a waste of time as you're not in a position to make changes We need people in the top 25% of the clued range to speak up. Otherwise the loud morons in the bottom 25% are at risk of being taken seriously by the middle 50%. Arguments don't need to be peer-review-quality every time someone speaks.
People in the top 25% are not wasting their time posting comments to Reddit et al. People who _think_ they are in the top 25%, sure.
r/AskHistorians and Twitter OSINT beg to differ. If you think those aren't the opinions of top 5% thinkers (only most informed out of 20 people, 1/2 are <100 IQ), then I question if you've met 40 average citizens before...