[flagged]
Which propaganda is being spread here?
Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
11–20 of 536 posts
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#12[flagged]
It's even more surprising that you can't argue with chavistas since there aren't any.
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#13God, I love mathematicians!
There’s also the really powerful Benford’s Law which has been admitted in criminal court cases!
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#14Forgive me if this is a dumb question, but isn't every vote total extremely unlikely if you make it precise to the exact number of votes? Like the chances of getting n+1, n+2... votes is roughly the same probability. For example the probability of getting [1,2,3,4,5,6] as the winning numbers in the lottery is the same as any random set of numbers.
That’s not what this article is about. Read the article.
FWIW, statistics is hard.
Having read the article, I came away with similar questions and I appreciate the sibling comments clarifying.
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#15[flagged]
They have data. You have the claim that it's propaganda, but you don't refute the data (or even the argument). That's not an effective rebuttal; it's just an attempted deflection. In fact, it shouldn't persuade anyone, even someone who is born and brought up in Venezuela.
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#16[flagged]
If the results are legitimate, how come independent polls were giving 30 percentage points less to Maduro than he obtained? Why were international entities not allowed to observe? And what about the multiple instances of harassment of opposition candidates?
I'm not a fan of US imperialism, but that doesn't mean you need to support any thug whose rethoric opposes the US, going so far as to deny evident reality.
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#17More on this. The Carter Foundation, the only impartial observers who were in Venezuela for the election, and who previously defended Venezuela's election system following Chavez's 2004 win, has called on Maduro's government to release local vote tallies, which apparently it is never going to do: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/31/world/americas/venezuela-...
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#18Forgive me if this is a dumb question, but isn't every vote total extremely unlikely if you make it precise to the exact number of votes? Like the chances of getting n+1, n+2... votes is roughly the same probability. For example the probability of getting [1,2,3,4,5,6] as the winning numbers in the lottery is the same as any random set of numbers.
The second half of the article answers this very question.
Here's an example – if I generate 10 random numbers between 1 and 100, what is more likely: all ten are multiples of 10, or at least one is not a multiple of 10?
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#19[dead]
Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election
#20[flagged]
If it was just 2 candidates, it would be slightly more believable, a 1 in 10,000 chance instead of 1 in 100 million chance.