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Does generative AI facilitate investor trading? Evidence from ChatGPT outages

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Re: Does generative AI facilitate investor trading? Evidence from ChatGPT outages

#101

Post by ProllyInfamous »

01HNNWZ0MV43FF wrote: post #61
dorkwood wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> His response was simply "I never got embarrassed asking the computer any finance questions, even stupid/simple ones; I've always been the finance guy with answers so I forgot how to be humble in unexplored topics." I think I'm the opposite. My feeling is that anything I type into ChatGPT gets stored in a database, ready to be leaked at some future date, or read by prying eyes without my knowledge. I'm more careful…

That's true, although the pain of giving up privacy is less sharp than the pain of social embarrassment. Sorta like not wearing a helmet on a motorcycle. Or not using condoms. Or not getting vaccinated.

On my newest Toyota, they finally made it so you cannot disable the seatbelt chime.

As a decades-long seatbelt-FORGETTER (I'm not anti-seatbelt, literally forgot!), not being able to change the vehicle's behavior actually led to a change in mine [I always "buckle up" before even unparking]..!

Re: Does generative AI facilitate investor trading? Evidence from ChatGPT outages

#102

Post by ProllyInfamous »

zorked wrote: post #96
ProllyInfamous wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Majority of verification nodes are not in China. No single jurisdiction approaches anywhere close to majority, with #1)USA@21% † †: https://bitnodes.io/

The "verification" nodes don't do anything to prevent censorship by miners. The threshold isn't quite 50%+. If one of the 49% nodes mines a block with a would-be censored transaction, the censoring notes have to make an economic decision to try to mine a replacement block and then a second block on top of that to rewrite the chain. At 100% this is easy, but at just 51% it's a costly gamble that will frequently fail a…

>The "verification" nodes don't do anything to prevent censorship by miners.

Absolutely agreed; however, eventually some non-hostile miner will randomly generate an acceptable `nonce` [entire point of hashing/energy-usage] which DOES include the censored-by-some transaction.

An additional function of the node-verification network (which uses essentially no energy, relative to mining) it to maintain the entirety of `mempool`, which is where unaccepted transaction-attempts live until mined into a block [which is then "accepted/denied" by same node-pool].

tl;dr: as far a probabilities go, unless you own exactly 100% of mining pool, it is impossible to censor a tx from the node's mempool; all you can do with <100% is DELAY transactions.

Re: Does generative AI facilitate investor trading? Evidence from ChatGPT outages

#103

Post by ProllyInfamous »

tiku wrote: post #75
astrange wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> One of which there will only ever be 21,000,000. This is a good property of something you want to be scarce, but it's a terrible property for money, whose purpose is to exist in the correct amount to keep stable money velocity in a growing economy. (Or a shrinking one.)

We can divide bitcoin into smaller pieces,

All it takes is 100% node concensus (e.g. a hard-fork for any non-agree-ers).

Hell, with Entirety-Approval, we could also increase the 20.99999999 limit (it's just a concensus-node rule; all that's needed is agreement).

As the operator of a node for over a decade, now, I do foresee a day when 1 Satoshi [i.e. 0.00000001 BTC] is no longer the smallest divisible unit... one day, perhaps beyond my lifetime, there may be mille- and eventually even nano- Satoshis.

One can continue Dreaming™

Re: Does generative AI facilitate investor trading? Evidence from ChatGPT outages

#104

Post by ProllyInfamous »

BoorishBears wrote: post #66
staplers wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

at this point it's been tried and failed to deliver A trillion dollars of value suggests otherwise.

Imagine if dollar bills appreciated in value thousands of times over by hiding them under your pillow.

Some people do more than just imagine =P

I turn 40 this year, and somehow have managed to entirely not touch my meager HODLings since 2018... it's the only reason I still earn USD (i.e. to not cash out any bitcoin).

I'm not rich, yet... but it's been a WILD. fucking. ride. (even just so far). Personally, I cashed out my entire 401(k) in 2016 and invested half of it into Bitcoin... which helps to not spend anything, viewing it as "my retirement, hit-or-miss..!"

Re: Does generative AI facilitate investor trading? Evidence from ChatGPT outages

#105

Post by 01HNNWZ0MV43FF »

kjkjadksj wrote: post #78
01HNNWZ0MV43FF wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If timing the market works at a small scale, why stop? If it worked, wouldn't everyone do it?

It does work at small scale and people don't stop, make careers and billions out of it, see high frequency trading. You can play market timer yourself just by using some game theory and keeping up with the chart.

I don't feel like competing with hft though lol

Re: Does generative AI facilitate investor trading? Evidence from ChatGPT outages

#106

Post by 01HNNWZ0MV43FF »

wongarsu wrote: post #67
01HNNWZ0MV43FF wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If timing the market works at a small scale, why stop? If it worked, wouldn't everyone do it?

Your risk tolerance changes. If you are living on $4000/month and have $500 to invest, you may as well bet those $500 on black. If you have a sizable investment that you hope will pay for your retirement you might want to go for the solid 10% yoy. Similarly if you manage other people's money they might be unhappy with you making 50/50 bets with that money. It's the same logic that causes people to buy lottery tickets…

Time scale yeah. I may do a bond tent when I get closer to retiring. But given the same amount of time and different amounts of money, if my cost of living is covered either way, why use a different strategy?

Re: Does generative AI facilitate investor trading? Evidence from ChatGPT outages

#107

Post by aradox66 »

snapcaster wrote: post #70
aradox66 wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OTOH, Bitcoin can be subject to liquidity crises which no entity could intervene to resolve.

Is that true? I don't doubt it but can you describe what that would look like in practice?

Sure, any currency can experience a liquidity crunch. This is a macroeconomic phenomenon. The main purpose of a central bank's massive currency reserves are to provide liquidity in the event of a liquidity crunch.

For simplicity imagine that there are just a few institutions that hold the majority of Bitcoin. Now imagine all of them are incredibly over leveraged on risky financial assets that suddenly all go to zero. Each of these institutions needs to suddenly pay off massive debts that they can't afford, and they start to spend their full Bitcoin reserves to pay. Investors notice the institutions are going belly up and simultaneously try and withdraw all their bitcoin deposits. There simply aren't enough Bitcoins to go around and the financial institutions holding bitcoin collapse.

When this happens in normal currency markets, the Federal Reserve steps in and provides a bail out of temporary liquidity to cover some of the debts involved for long enough to calm down investors so that everyone isn't simultaneously trying to cover massive debts with the same insufficient supply of currency. This is an absolutely critical part of modern macroeconomic stability. Every liquidity crisis that has happened would have been massively worse if not for this "monetary stimulus."

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