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Does generative AI facilitate investor trading? Evidence from ChatGPT outages

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Re: Does generative AI facilitate investor trading? Evidence from ChatGPT outages

#51

Post by [deleted] »

kjkjadksj wrote: post #48
ProllyInfamous wrote: post #26

Background: I am personally a long-term value investor ( a la Sir Templeton or Buffet †), but annually breakfast with a retired "numbers guy" (who's currently building his short-term trading strategy). For decades he worked finance for among the largest accounting firms in the world... Since 2016, our mutual friend and I have been adamently suggesting he look into "this bitcoin thing" — his response was typically [di…

Time in the markets beats timing the market if you actually have capital to throw around to gleam a decent 5% yearly return. If you don't have much capital, you have to time the market like hell to build up your capital to a level where 5% yoy actually is a decent amount of money.

[deleted]

Re: Does generative AI facilitate investor trading? Evidence from ChatGPT outages

#52

Post by theanti9 »

dorkwood wrote: post #38
ProllyInfamous wrote: post #26

Background: I am personally a long-term value investor ( a la Sir Templeton or Buffet †), but annually breakfast with a retired "numbers guy" (who's currently building his short-term trading strategy). For decades he worked finance for among the largest accounting firms in the world... Since 2016, our mutual friend and I have been adamently suggesting he look into "this bitcoin thing" — his response was typically [di…

> His response was simply "I never got embarrassed asking the computer any finance questions, even stupid/simple ones; I've always been the finance guy with answers so I forgot how to be humble in unexplored topics." I think I'm the opposite. My feeling is that anything I type into ChatGPT gets stored in a database, ready to be leaked at some future date, or read by prying eyes without my knowledge. I'm more careful…

https://rabbitu.de/articles/security-disclosure-1

Doesn't it count as paranoia if it already happened?

Re: Does generative AI facilitate investor trading? Evidence from ChatGPT outages

#53

Post by chant4747 »

snapcaster wrote: post #44
christianqchung wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Media narratives and conspiracies are often used interchangeably, I can't read your mind so I included both. Also in your original comment you brought up the media, it's right there, so...

dude the comment i responded to is from you saying "cryptocurrency proponents out there who have somehow ignored all the negative press it has received."

In fairness, that was actually me. May want to double check the usernames. Both start with ch - easy mistake to make.

I would have participated more in the discussion but HN is telling me I’m posting too fast so I’m guessing a moderator didn’t like some of my harsh tone.

Re: Does generative AI facilitate investor trading? Evidence from ChatGPT outages

#54

Post by jazzyjackson »

sitkack wrote: post #11
jazzyjackson wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

chatgpt has never stood up for itself, if you express doubt it will defer and say it must by mistaken even when it's correct

That is because they turned the sycophancy up to 11. You have to turn it down, if you are a serious LLM user and you don't have your own system prompt, you are using it wrong.

I havent found any serious LLMs to use :)

Re: Does generative AI facilitate investor trading? Evidence from ChatGPT outages

#55

Post by malcolmgreaves »

theanti9 wrote: post #52
dorkwood wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> His response was simply "I never got embarrassed asking the computer any finance questions, even stupid/simple ones; I've always been the finance guy with answers so I forgot how to be humble in unexplored topics." I think I'm the opposite. My feeling is that anything I type into ChatGPT gets stored in a database, ready to be leaked at some future date, or read by prying eyes without my knowledge. I'm more careful…

https://rabbitu.de/articles/security-disclosure-1 Doesn't it count as paranoia if it already happened?

Wow! Great disclosure! I find it hard to read though, since the text doesn't properly capitalize the start of sentences. Messes up with the natural language parser I have in my head :)

Re: Does generative AI facilitate investor trading? Evidence from ChatGPT outages

#56

Post by staplers »

AlexandrB wrote: post #49
codetrotter wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a self evident train of scams and security incidents Because a bunch of bad people jumped on the bandwagon to exploit others. Bitcoin != “crypto” Bitcoin was the original and it’s still here. And it will continue to be here. The goal of bitcoin is not to “make money”. Bitcoin is money. A new kind of money. One that no central entity can control. One of which there will only ever be 21,000,000. No one can print more…

> Bitcoin can not be controlled. > The world's top Bitcoin mining pools mainly come from China, with five pools being responsible for more than half of the cryptocurrency's total hash. https://www.statista.com/statistics/731416/market-share-of-m...

They dont control anything. If they left the network would readjust difficulty after 10 minutes and continue on the same way.

Seriously educate yourself. You're being the guy in the op comment.

Re: Does generative AI facilitate investor trading? Evidence from ChatGPT outages

#57

Post by huijzer »

kjkjadksj wrote: post #48
ProllyInfamous wrote: post #26

Background: I am personally a long-term value investor ( a la Sir Templeton or Buffet †), but annually breakfast with a retired "numbers guy" (who's currently building his short-term trading strategy). For decades he worked finance for among the largest accounting firms in the world... Since 2016, our mutual friend and I have been adamently suggesting he look into "this bitcoin thing" — his response was typically [di…

Time in the markets beats timing the market if you actually have capital to throw around to gleam a decent 5% yearly return. If you don't have much capital, you have to time the market like hell to build up your capital to a level where 5% yoy actually is a decent amount of money.

5% is decent? The index made about 10% on average, Peter Lynch about 30%, and Buffett in the ‘60s was at 40-50%.

Re: Does generative AI facilitate investor trading? Evidence from ChatGPT outages

#58

Post by amerkhalid »

simonw wrote: post #10
joering2 wrote: post #8

I think lately results of chat went downhill. I got used to asking "are you sure about that" after each chat answer to my question, and to most of the time the answer is "you are right, here is how I was wrong".

That's not a recent thing - most of the LLMs I've tried have an annoying tendency to agree with you if you question them, even if they weren't actually wrong. The term for it is "sycophancy", I think there are a few papers that talk about it.

This reminds me of some communications training where they were saying that the most things are not worth disagreeing on and just agree with whatever.

And I think I read in some parenting books too that it is not worth correcting kids over things that don't matter like if they say dinosaurs and mammoth were alive during same time. Over-correcting hurts their confidence.

Maybe LLM been trained on these ideas or maybe it is start of science fiction nightmare and AI really think that it is not worth arguing with mere humans.

Re: Does generative AI facilitate investor trading? Evidence from ChatGPT outages

#59

Post by staplers »

rafaelmn wrote: post #43
svara wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HN just loves novelty, once crypto made mainstream news HN fell out of love. The pattern has applied to Tesla/Musk, cryptocurrency, language models and probably much more I'm not aware of.

I don't think it's about novelty - heck people here will praise Unix and C regularly. It's more that crypto initially had potential, at this point it's been tried and failed to deliver - at least from the value perspective of people here.

  at this point it's been tried and failed to deliver
A trillion dollars of value suggests otherwise.

Re: Does generative AI facilitate investor trading? Evidence from ChatGPT outages

#60

Post by astrange »

codetrotter wrote: post #41
christianqchung wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By dominant media narratives you mean a self evident train of scams and security incidents? There's no conspiracy or undue effort to make crypto look bad, that happened in a decentralized manner.

> a self evident train of scams and security incidents Because a bunch of bad people jumped on the bandwagon to exploit others. Bitcoin != “crypto” Bitcoin was the original and it’s still here. And it will continue to be here. The goal of bitcoin is not to “make money”. Bitcoin is money. A new kind of money. One that no central entity can control. One of which there will only ever be 21,000,000. No one can print more…

> One of which there will only ever be 21,000,000.

This is a good property of something you want to be scarce, but it's a terrible property for money, whose purpose is to exist in the correct amount to keep stable money velocity in a growing economy. (Or a shrinking one.)

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