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Europe's new heavy-lift rocket, Ariane 6, made its inaugural flight

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Re: Europe's new heavy-lift rocket, Ariane 6, made its inaugural flight

#31

Post by christkv »

nabla9 wrote: post #2

Ariane 6 exists so that European countries can get independent access to space between now and 2030s. The launch cost is almost 2x the cost of Falcon 9. Both platforms can lift 22t to LEO. 6-10 years from now Ariane Next/SALTO will aims replicate Falcon 9 efficiency and the design will be very similar: reusable, RP-1/LOX, Prometheus engine is similar reusable open cycle engine as Merlin with lots of 3D printed parts.

The main genius of SpaceX is the mass production. Hopefully they can replicate that in the future.

Re: Europe's new heavy-lift rocket, Ariane 6, made its inaugural flight

#32

Post by JumpCrisscross »

pmontra wrote: post #25
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 6-10 years from now Ariane Next/SALTO will aims replicate Falcon 9 efficiency and the design will be very similar …at which point it will be competing with Starship.

It will still be building that knowledge inside Europe. Rocketry in general is deemed to be strategic so it's OK for any country to invest money in that, keep scientists and engineers on the subject, keep the industries alive, etc. It's not only about access to space, it's also about defense.

> will still be building that knowledge inside Europe

Ariane 6 cannibalises Europe’s chance at being more than an also-ran in space:

“An Arianespace manager pushing his company as the only solution to Europe’s launch challenges isn’t that noteworthy. However, the fact [Arianespace’s CEO] urges the need for a ‘reusable heavy launcher’ is notable, considering his previous noncommittal remarks about rocket reusability. The certainty of his statement leaves no ambiguity–Ariane 6 just won’t be able to compete in the global market. It will take a (single and expensive) reusable heavy launcher (manufactured by Arianespace) and (funded by) a unified Europe to compete (with SpaceX).

While [Arianespace’s CEO’s] admission of reusability’s future in Europe is surprising, his constancy in his attempts to keep European space activities hostage to Arianespace is not. To be clear, he wants European taxpayers to fund reusability development and manufacturing only through Arianespace. He believes Europe can’t afford more than one reusable heavy launcher and that if Europe were to pay for a reusable rocket, then Arianespace must manufacture it.”

https://www.illdefined.space/arianespace-the-only-fish-in-th...

Re: Europe's new heavy-lift rocket, Ariane 6, made its inaugural flight

#33

Post by contrarian1234 »

nabla9 wrote: post #2

Ariane 6 exists so that European countries can get independent access to space between now and 2030s. The launch cost is almost 2x the cost of Falcon 9. Both platforms can lift 22t to LEO. 6-10 years from now Ariane Next/SALTO will aims replicate Falcon 9 efficiency and the design will be very similar: reusable, RP-1/LOX, Prometheus engine is similar reusable open cycle engine as Merlin with lots of 3D printed parts.

Are the Europeans wworried that "between now and 2030s" the US will cut off their access to space?

I understand things can go wrong and it's good to have a backup plan in the long term... But that's not that many years out. You can go without access for a few years .. It seems like a tiny risk

Re: Europe's new heavy-lift rocket, Ariane 6, made its inaugural flight

#34

Post by speedgoose »

ur-whale wrote: post #17
crest wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So because an incumbent exists ESA should give up, let their production and development pipeline rot away and "enjoy" the monopoly until it's too late to change something?

> So because an incumbent exists ESA should give up No. But they should learn their lesson and try to run instead of plodding along at a glacial pace. Oh but wait, they're govt funded with no success incentives other than some sort of vague sense of pride for a job well done. My money is on they're not going to come out ahead in the race.

I would rather work for the government than working to make someone so rich even more rich. To each their own.

Re: Europe's new heavy-lift rocket, Ariane 6, made its inaugural flight

#35

Post by Beretta_Vexee »

ur-whale wrote: post #17
crest wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So because an incumbent exists ESA should give up, let their production and development pipeline rot away and "enjoy" the monopoly until it's too late to change something?

> So because an incumbent exists ESA should give up No. But they should learn their lesson and try to run instead of plodding along at a glacial pace. Oh but wait, they're govt funded with no success incentives other than some sort of vague sense of pride for a job well done. My money is on they're not going to come out ahead in the race.

ESA and Ariane Group are two very different things. Ariane Group's main investor is the French state (61%). The French state wants a high-powered solid rocket booster for its ICBMs, and a sovereign and reliable means of launching large intelligence satellites. It couldn't care less about reusability. ESA is the equivalent of NASA and has no commercial activity, but subsidizes part of the Ariane program. Ariane group would rather be like a state own Lockheed Martin Space. Private investors interested in profitability and civil activities are in the minority at Ariane Group

There is no race between ESA, NASA and Roscomos. The Russians and the French are not going to abandon their rockets and entrust their nuclear deterrent and early warning system to SpaceX.

Re: Europe's new heavy-lift rocket, Ariane 6, made its inaugural flight

#36

Post by JumpCrisscross »

flohofwoe wrote: post #30
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 6-10 years from now Ariane Next/SALTO will aims replicate Falcon 9 efficiency and the design will be very similar …at which point it will be competing with Starship.

Unless Europe wants to build a moon base or new ISS, won't a Starship competitor be a bit overkill for most payloads?

> won't a Starship competitor be a bit overkill for most payloads?

No, for the same reason trucks aren’t overkill for horses in logistics. Unit costs, lead time, orbital flexibility: there isn’t a market for Ariane 6 left.

Even ArianeSpace’s CEO admits Ariane 6 is obsolete and that Europe needs “a reusable heavy launcher” [1].

[1] https://www.illdefined.space/arianespace-the-only-fish-in-th...

Re: Europe's new heavy-lift rocket, Ariane 6, made its inaugural flight

#37

Post by cubefox »

nabla9 wrote: post #2

Ariane 6 exists so that European countries can get independent access to space between now and 2030s. The launch cost is almost 2x the cost of Falcon 9. Both platforms can lift 22t to LEO. 6-10 years from now Ariane Next/SALTO will aims replicate Falcon 9 efficiency and the design will be very similar: reusable, RP-1/LOX, Prometheus engine is similar reusable open cycle engine as Merlin with lots of 3D printed parts.

I think it would be, in the long term, more cost effective for ESA to contract two or three private European rocket start-ups, like RFA, to build such reusable launch vehicles. To create some competition in price and development speed. Arianespace (ArianeGroup) seems to be "old space" by now, similar to ULA or Boeing in the US.

Re: Europe's new heavy-lift rocket, Ariane 6, made its inaugural flight

#38

Post by JumpCrisscross »

threeseed wrote: post #18
Kuinox wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By then, startship would have lowered cost even further.

Starship has a payload 10x-15x larger than the smaller Ariane 6 variant. It seems like for the cost to be lower you would be wanting to fit as much as possible thus impacting how often it is being launched. So not sure if the two have the same requirements.

> seems like for the cost to be lower you would be wanting to fit as much as possible thus impacting how often it is being launched

Starlink alone will fill Starship’s most-ambitious deployment schedules for years. That gives plenty of piggyback capacity to swamp the market with.

Re: Europe's new heavy-lift rocket, Ariane 6, made its inaugural flight

#39

Post by dhedberg »

threeseed wrote: post #18
Kuinox wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By then, startship would have lowered cost even further.

Starship has a payload 10x-15x larger than the smaller Ariane 6 variant. It seems like for the cost to be lower you would be wanting to fit as much as possible thus impacting how often it is being launched. So not sure if the two have the same requirements.

I suspect that you don't really need to fill all the seats of a reusable 737 before it's cheaper to fly than a single-use Cessna.

Re: Europe's new heavy-lift rocket, Ariane 6, made its inaugural flight

#40

Post by PedroBatista »

contrarian1234 wrote: post #33
nabla9 wrote: post #2

Ariane 6 exists so that European countries can get independent access to space between now and 2030s. The launch cost is almost 2x the cost of Falcon 9. Both platforms can lift 22t to LEO. 6-10 years from now Ariane Next/SALTO will aims replicate Falcon 9 efficiency and the design will be very similar: reusable, RP-1/LOX, Prometheus engine is similar reusable open cycle engine as Merlin with lots of 3D printed parts.

Are the Europeans wworried that "between now and 2030s" the US will cut off their access to space? I understand things can go wrong and it's good to have a backup plan in the long term... But that's not that many years out. You can go without access for a few years .. It seems like a tiny risk

Looking at the geopolitical situation both next door and across the pond the answer is a yes.

Also keeping the expertise and the people is a critical factor.

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