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Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

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Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#601

Post by JohnFen »

standardUser wrote: post #503
gambiting wrote: post #453

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>Unsupervised in what sense? There's internal cameras that are periodically checked. What do you think is more likely to get vandalized - a room with a human sitting in it, or a room with a camera watching it?

They have my credit card and they could ban me from their app. It's not like people constantly trash hotel rooms or rental cars.

> It's not like people constantly trash hotel rooms

I worked as a house attendant in an upscale hotel for years. Let me tell you from experience: a shockingly high percentage of people trash and damage their rooms. Not the majority, but enough to keep staff busy every day.

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#602

Post by Eisenstein »

groby_b wrote: post #600
Eisenstein wrote: post #383

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know what 'deeply understanding tech' has to do with any of that. Plenty of people who 'deeply understand tech' get drunk and puke in places. Honestly, you sound like a Victorian-era petty lord looking down his nose at 'commoners'.

You read the part where I said the understanding constrains the existing user base from antisocial behavior, right? This isn't about "commoners". It's that any large group of people contains assholes, assholes restrain themselves depending on circumstances, and the new users might well lack that understanding. It's fundamentally not about "commoners", but about a knowledge-based restraint falling away. (As for the "c…

The fact that a critique by someone else of what they think you sound like makes you accuse them of 'outrage' is exactly why you sound like a snob.

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#603

Post by zooq_ai »

shkkmo wrote: post #522
zooq_ai wrote: post #385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A fan-boy would never call Musk a narcisstic a*hole. Technology progress is non-linear. Yes, Tesla is at L3 and Waymo at L4. But, you completely missed the point of rate-of-innovation, which was why I made that as first point. My GOOG holdings are 4x than TSLA. But in terms of who will deliver FSD at better margins, it's hands down TSLA. It's simple Math and Elon's obsession about cutting material costs & process to…

> you completely missed the point of rate-of-innovation How is the "rate of innovation" higher but yet they've innovated less and have a less functional product? It's made up metric and was ignored because it adds no value to the conversation unless you have some actual data.

Waymo has spent more money, resources and started earlier than Tesla and yet it is only marginally better than Tesla at this point.

from Fig 1: https://fooledbyrandomness.com/ConvexityScience.pdf

Waymo (and most HNers) : Knowledge Edge

Musk / (Billionaires hated by HNers) : Convexity Bias

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#604

Post by zooq_ai »

ddalex wrote: post #486
zooq_ai wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

as a Alphabet and Tesla shareholder, this is what is important. The rate of innovation at Tesla > Waymo The cost of building Tesla FSD = 1/100 * cost of building Waymo FSD The cost of delivering Tesla FSD = 1/10 * cost of delivering Waymo FSD Tesla has economies of scale. Waymo has all the details figured out. Waymo can never get to the scale of Tesla (it can never buy 5 Million FSD cars, while Tesla is delivering th…

> it can never buy 5 Million FSD cars Why not? They only do the integration, and traditional car and electronics manufacturers have solved the scaling problems long ago.

cost of Waymo FSD hardware add-ons : $50,000

cost of Tesla FSD hardware add-ons : $5,000

Tesla benefits from vertical integration, which is super important in the innovation phase.

I'm still coming to this from an unbiased perspective. Personally, I'd be a lot richer if Waymo wins the FSD race.

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#605

Post by TulliusCicero »

Zenzero wrote: post #584
TulliusCicero wrote: post #352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla definitely has lower costs, but what they don't have is a car that can drive itself. They only have a car that can drive with a human partner behind the wheel who's ready at any second to take over and prevent it from crashing.

> They only have a car that can drive with a human partner behind the wheel who's ready at any second to take over and prevent it from crashing. Even that is a faulty system. I really don't understand how people can think Tesla and Waymo are anywhere close to each other. Making a car drive itself is a much harder problem to solve than scaling production. If you look at what Tesla has, today, it is a vehicle that can…

Scaling production isn't the issue for Waymo, it's scaling and maintaining operational capabilities within cities at a cost that still lets them be profitable.

I think it's possible, but it's definitely less trivial than scaling production of more self driving cars.

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#606

Post by miohtama »

rwmj wrote: post #28
miohtama wrote: post #4

Does this mean the self-driving cars are finally here? Where next?

London hopefully. Maybe one day soon I can get rid of my car.

It will take forever before any regulator in Europe allowes anything like this. Hopefully during our life time.

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#607

Post by ddalex »

zooq_ai wrote: post #599
ddalex wrote: post #595

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know where you live, but here in Europe, the driver would lose the driving licence for 1 month for this little stunt. Specifically, changing lanes near the intersection over the solid line, and cutting those waiting in line. What you call first-principle-thinkers, the rest of the world calls dicks. Everybody sees that manoeuvre, it doesn't require a genius. Most of the people don't do it because they are afra…

By giving an European example, you are actually proving my point. Just read this https://fooledbyrandomness.com/ConvexityScience.pdf From fig (1) Waymo/ HNers : Knowledge Edge Musk : Convexity Bias That's why Musk's approach will win. Waymo will no doubt provide a safe, rule-following driving experience, but Tesla will have frontier breakthroughs and provide more human-like, adapting and sufficiently aggressive drivi…

The problem with Tesla's approach is that it learns from humans. Specifically, it learns the mediocrity of humans. That's why it made that idiotic manoeuvre, it learned it from the typical people that drive other Teslas.

So Tesla will necessarily converge to the performance of your average driver, because that's where the data leads it.

Waymo's is developing a new type of understanding and modelling of the world. It perceives and tracks items above the capability of humans to track and understand. Therefore its limits are outside of the bounds of the most capable human drivers.

Your own argument highlights exactly why Tesla's approach is a dead end (exactly in the same manners that LLMs will lead to the dead internet), while Waymo's approach will likely generate super-intelligence.

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#608

Post by ddalex »

zooq_ai wrote: post #598
ddalex wrote: post #487

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who wishes to have created the car that gets stuck when it rains?

The kind of founders who knows the risk of launching products? The kind of founders who knows shipping > waiting-for-perfection?

lmao auto founders that never heard of recalls :)

move fast and break things may be ok for social networks, but never ok for endangering the safety of others

to launch a 6th model of a marque, so well established, theoretically knowing a lot about cars, a model that dies when it gets wet, it's just embarrassing

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#609

Post by zooq_ai »

ddalex wrote: post #608
zooq_ai wrote: post #598

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The kind of founders who knows the risk of launching products? The kind of founders who knows shipping > waiting-for-perfection?

lmao auto founders that never heard of recalls :) move fast and break things may be ok for social networks, but never ok for endangering the safety of others to launch a 6th model of a marque, so well established, theoretically knowing a lot about cars, a model that dies when it gets wet, it's just embarrassing

https://www.iihs.org/ratings/vehicle/Tesla/model-3-4-door-se...

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#610

Post by lmm »

sulam wrote: post #509
lmm wrote: post #406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They may be trying to, but when has Google ever successfully positioned something as a premium product and defended that?

Pixel phones? Nest? The Bayview hotel rooms are pretty nice. Hell even Gmail feels pretty premium to me, but I guess this word might be considered subjective. Also, Waymo isn't even Google. You might accuse me of overstating this, but truthfully they operate as a different company.

Pixel phones have less of a brand than Samsung, much less Apple (not talking about actual product quality, just brand positioning). Nest doesn't stand out, although I don't think any of the smart home things are really established enough to know which are good or bad. I've never heard of the Bayview hotel rooms. Gmail is good but it's not a "premium" feel.
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