Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

waymo.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

521–530 of 651 posts

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#521

Post by EcommerceFlow »

Comments are really underestimating Tesla FSD in here. As an owner and user of FSD, it's scary how quickly their new Neural Net version is improving. There's a reason Elon and other internal Tesla engineers are so bullish on it, they've seen the data on 12.5 and beyond. Once their 100,000 GPU cluster is complete this year, how many iterations until FSD is comparable to Waymo? One year? Maybe 3 years?

The reason Waymo should be worried is because once FSD hits that "crossing", a flick of a switch at Tesla and 3-8 million robo taxis could hit the market all at once. For comparison, Waymo has around 1,000 cars.

It's cool what Waymo's doing, but as an actual FSD user it's plainly obvious "vision only" will work, which does not bode well for all the other car companies + waymo.

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#522

Post by shkkmo »

zooq_ai wrote: post #385
shkkmo wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is still stuck at Level 3 while Waymo has been operating at level 4 for years. If Tesla does manag to jump straight from level 3 to level 5, they have a chance to compete, but that seems unlikely. They also might move to level 4 and be able to expand level 4 coverage faster, but that still remains to be seen. Waymo has years of experience with the other hard part of self driving taxis: actually picking up and d…

A fan-boy would never call Musk a narcisstic a*hole. Technology progress is non-linear. Yes, Tesla is at L3 and Waymo at L4. But, you completely missed the point of rate-of-innovation, which was why I made that as first point. My GOOG holdings are 4x than TSLA. But in terms of who will deliver FSD at better margins, it's hands down TSLA. It's simple Math and Elon's obsession about cutting material costs & process to…

> you completely missed the point of rate-of-innovation

How is the "rate of innovation" higher but yet they've innovated less and have a less functional product? It's made up metric and was ignored because it adds no value to the conversation unless you have some actual data.

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#523

Post by splwjs »

shoubidouwah wrote: post #489
itsoktocry wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I love how we've gone from "Taxis are gross and dirty, that's why I love Uber!" to "Ubers are gross and dirty, that's why I love Waymo!" in the span of 5 years. What do you think comes next? These cars are literally unsupervised.

You have ID of who was in the car and when, and a 'report' button in the app for the next passenger. Easy enough, if something is reported you have the choice to wait for the next one while the trashed car goes to be cleaned or ride anyway at a discount if you solve it yourself - e.g: put the trash in a bag in the boot of the car. After N reports attributed to you, you get banned.

open car door

trash car (or don't)

report trashed car

ride for discount

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#524

Post by flippyhead »

EcommerceFlow wrote: post #521

Comments are really underestimating Tesla FSD in here. As an owner and user of FSD, it's scary how quickly their new Neural Net version is improving. There's a reason Elon and other internal Tesla engineers are so bullish on it, they've seen the data on 12.5 and beyond. Once their 100,000 GPU cluster is complete this year, how many iterations until FSD is comparable to Waymo? One year? Maybe 3 years? The reason Waymo…

Not to mention that Tesla's hardware costs are considerably less -- they're doing it with "just" a few cameras.

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#525

Post by ModernMech »

x-complexity wrote: post #460
ModernMech wrote: post #377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So do hotels, I guess that’s why no hotel room has ever been trashed.

> So do hotels, I guess that’s why no hotel room has ever been trashed. The point is when there's damage, it can be billed to the malicious actor in question.

No, the point was that billing the damage to the malicious actor in question will prevent damage.

But for some people, a fine is just the cost of doing the thing. And for every bad actor you ban, there's another bad actor willing to take their place.

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#526

Post by anonymousab »

EcommerceFlow wrote: post #521

Comments are really underestimating Tesla FSD in here. As an owner and user of FSD, it's scary how quickly their new Neural Net version is improving. There's a reason Elon and other internal Tesla engineers are so bullish on it, they've seen the data on 12.5 and beyond. Once their 100,000 GPU cluster is complete this year, how many iterations until FSD is comparable to Waymo? One year? Maybe 3 years? The reason Waymo…

> a flick of a switch at Tesla and 3-8 million robo taxis could hit the market all at once

Assuming this is a feature that car owners (and presumably, states/provinces/countries) have to opt into, what does the insurance and liabilities look like for this?

I can't believe that Tesla wouldn't shove all of it onto the end car owner, even if (or rather, when) they take a sizeable cut.

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#527

Post by dilap »

xnx wrote: post #18
skyyler wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ubers don't smell bad until someone shits or pukes in one. I can't imagine these will be any different...

About half the Ubers I get in have overpowering air "fresheners" (perfumes). I'll always roll down a window unless the driver has disabled it (which is one more thing not to like about Ubers).

I hate those -- they instantly make me nauseous.

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#528

Post by bryant »

EcommerceFlow wrote: post #521

Comments are really underestimating Tesla FSD in here. As an owner and user of FSD, it's scary how quickly their new Neural Net version is improving. There's a reason Elon and other internal Tesla engineers are so bullish on it, they've seen the data on 12.5 and beyond. Once their 100,000 GPU cluster is complete this year, how many iterations until FSD is comparable to Waymo? One year? Maybe 3 years? The reason Waymo…

Is it gonna be good enough for Tesla to own and insure-for liability?

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#529

Post by claaams »

EcommerceFlow wrote: post #521

Comments are really underestimating Tesla FSD in here. As an owner and user of FSD, it's scary how quickly their new Neural Net version is improving. There's a reason Elon and other internal Tesla engineers are so bullish on it, they've seen the data on 12.5 and beyond. Once their 100,000 GPU cluster is complete this year, how many iterations until FSD is comparable to Waymo? One year? Maybe 3 years? The reason Waymo…

With Elon, these types of massive changes are always just a year or two away and somehow never come or are not delivered as promised. They're bullish because it makes the stock price go up.

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#530

Post by SeanAnderson »

EcommerceFlow wrote: post #521

Comments are really underestimating Tesla FSD in here. As an owner and user of FSD, it's scary how quickly their new Neural Net version is improving. There's a reason Elon and other internal Tesla engineers are so bullish on it, they've seen the data on 12.5 and beyond. Once their 100,000 GPU cluster is complete this year, how many iterations until FSD is comparable to Waymo? One year? Maybe 3 years? The reason Waymo…

I think there's still significant regulatory hurdles to overcome before it's just a flick of the switch.

I haven't ridden in a Tesla FSD. Have you ridden in a Waymo? It seems tough to compare where they're "at" without having experienced both.

I also wonder how much Waymo will have improved in the next 1-3 years. This whole field seems like the sort of thing where improvements come more rapidly as more data is acquired and data is acquired more rapidly the more vehicles come online. I could easily see a situation where Waymo masters their process and expands to hundreds of thousands of vehicles in a short period of time.

Also, while I think I do believe in the ability to do FSD well with just cameras, I wonder if there will be fringe safety benefits to using accompanying lidar that will end up winning over public perception. People seem very interested in the ability for cars to do driving more safely than humans. I feel like this conflicts, mildly, with the desire to do FSD with pure vision on the premise that humans do it with pure vision. It's a true premise, but I'm not sure it's especially marketable.

Post reply on HN