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Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

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Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#31

Post by psunavy03 »

mark_l_watson wrote: post #15
lolinder wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If I were in charge, the first thing I would do would be to close most foreign military bases. We can have the strongest military in the world and have them largely based in the US. The strategy behind the foreign military bases isn't just about having the strongest military in the world. They serve two purposes: First, we want to preserve the credible threat of boots on the ground anywhere in the world within just…

I don’t argue with your main points except to question if it is worth the money now. I was in the defense industry for 25 years, and my comments above are just my opinions on what is in the best interests of the US taxpayer today in 2024. I am questioning the value of having 800 military bases in foreign countries in 2024. What was once a good idea may not be worth the money and resources now. What does the US give u…

If you really were in the defense industry for 25 years and you're making takes like that, I can only imagine you never worked on anything of consequence. This is like saying you worked in tech for 25 years and don't get what the big deal is about version control or CI/CD.

Or at least that you have no idea how your business makes money or what your users want your code for. Explainable for a new hire, but for a 25-year vet, such a lack of understanding and perspective is really inexcusable.

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#32

Post by JumpCrisscross »

SXX wrote: post #25
lawn wrote: post #4

It's mentioned in the article, but the reaction to the sanctions seem fairly severe? Russian banks went down en masse, the spread of foreign currencies was larger than the official numbers, and people were queuing outside the banks to withdraw money. Of course, the Russian narrative is that this will hurt the west more than it will hurt Russia...

Unfortunately nothing really happened in Russia because the only meaningful exchange rate of RUB / USD pair is not set by some central bank or exchange, but crypto market: https://www.bestchange.com/sberbank-to-tether-trc20.html There was drop of like 5-10%, but that's nothing special. You can still go and buy as much USDT as you want for reasonable price. And this is what majority of normal people use to move money…

> sanctions make very little difference short term. Giving more weapons to Ukraine is the only way to stop Russia

Correct. Long term, the effects of a materially-high real interest rate, capital controls and the demographic and technological degradation of sanctions and the war directly are starting to show their teeth.

Sanctions won’t stop this war. But they’ll facilitate degrading Russia so it is in no position to launch the next. (Weapons will stop this war.)

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#33

Post by bobbiechen »

queuebert wrote: post #29
mg wrote: post #22

Interesting, how different the monetary base over time looks like in China compared to the US and Europe when you click on "max" on these charts: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/money-supply-m0 USA: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m0 Europe: https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/money-supply-m0

What is the purpose of the annual spikes?

I suspect it's related to Chinese New Year, as the peaks in the graph change from January to February depending on which month Chinese New Year falls into.

Edit: ah, M0 is cash. It is traditional to give cash in red envelopes at Chinese New Year, which could be related. I'm surprised the spikes are so large though.

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#34

Post by lawn »

mrtksn wrote: post #21
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Russians simply get their stuff from others With less variety, slower and at higher cost [1]. And they’re not getting much of the high-tech kit [2]. (The Germans also had blockade runners. Everyone does. That doesn’t make a blockade less onerous.) Russian natural gas sales have also cratered; Beijing is leveraging its position as a monopsony to demand price concessions [3]. [1] https://www.csis.org/analysis/out-sto…

Atta boy for Beijing but Russians don't seem to be having trouble running this war at all. They still get their precision machinery and simply eat M instead of McDonalds. Stuff getting expensive is no different than the west really. Slightly worse living standards can destroy the western democracies as they shift to extremist politics but has no effect on Russian leadership.

> Atta boy for Beijing but Russians don't seem to be having trouble running this war at all.

You're really not looking closely.

In the beginning they were invading with tanks. Now they send Chinese golf carts and mopeds to the front to power the meat grinder.

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#35

Post by MangoCoffee »

mark_l_watson wrote: post #2

As a US taxpayer I don’t particularly like this. We rely on being the world’s reserve currency, and many things get more expensive, e.g., serving government debt. In 2000-2001 we were able to effectively bully three countries that were talking about moving away from the US dollar, but I am not sure if that works now. I have a lot of personal theories how my country can best cope with future geopolitical adjustments.…

>We rely on being the world’s reserve currency,

"Saudi Arabia ends 80-year petrodollar deal with US for multi-currency sales"

https://www.indiatoday.in/business/story/saudi-arabia-ends-8...

"No empire lasts forever, no dynasty continues unbroken"

edit:

Since the U.S.'s war on terrorism, the U.S. has said that every trade done in dollars is de facto done on U.S. soil and thus subject to U.S. laws. I'm surprised that more countries have not tried to cut ties with the U.S. dollar.

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#36

Post by throw-the-towel »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #16
wnevets wrote: post #11

China is gonna keep buying up Russia for pennies on the dollar. I wouldn't be shocked if we start seeing actual territory switch from Russia to China in the next few years.

Vladivostok was recently required to be called 符拉迪沃斯托克 on Chinese maps. China claiming that territory back one way or another does seem to be likely.

You're probably thinking of 海参崴.

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#37

Post by mark_l_watson »

audunw wrote: post #17
mark_l_watson wrote: post #2

As a US taxpayer I don’t particularly like this. We rely on being the world’s reserve currency, and many things get more expensive, e.g., serving government debt. In 2000-2001 we were able to effectively bully three countries that were talking about moving away from the US dollar, but I am not sure if that works now. I have a lot of personal theories how my country can best cope with future geopolitical adjustments.…

Are you really worried about the dollar being threatened? What is the alternative? There isn’t any at the moment is there? Some countries may try to move away from the dollar to some degree but it’s not like the Yuan or Ruble is remotely close to replacing it. It’s not even clear that China or Russia would even want them to. China would have to give up capital control which doesn’t seem likely. They’re too afraid of…

Good question. I don’t worry so much about any other single currency taking over as the reserve currency. Rather, I think individual pair-ups of trading partners will more frequently trade with each other in their own currencies. It is the dilution of the use of dollars that concerns me.

I share some of your lack of enthusiasm for crypto currencies. Rather, as individual countries trade between themselves it may often be advantageous for them to use their own currencies, especially if they don’t have to hold other countries’ currencies for long periods of time.

Non-US countries pay quite a penalty for holding lots of dollars. I expect every country to do what is in their own best interests, just as I hope my country makes good long term economic and geopolitical decisions.

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#38

Post by JumpCrisscross »

psunavy03 wrote: post #31
mark_l_watson wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t argue with your main points except to question if it is worth the money now. I was in the defense industry for 25 years, and my comments above are just my opinions on what is in the best interests of the US taxpayer today in 2024. I am questioning the value of having 800 military bases in foreign countries in 2024. What was once a good idea may not be worth the money and resources now. What does the US give u…

If you really were in the defense industry for 25 years and you're making takes like that, I can only imagine you never worked on anything of consequence. This is like saying you worked in tech for 25 years and don't get what the big deal is about version control or CI/CD. Or at least that you have no idea how your business makes money or what your users want your code for. Explainable for a new hire, but for a 25-ye…

> can only imagine you never worked on anything of consequence

“Amateurs talk about tactics, but professionals talk about logistics,” Robert Barrow, former Commandant of the Marine Corps, echoing Eisenhower, echoing Cæsar.

In all likelihood, the person you’re responding to had no strategic remit.

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#39

Post by mrtksn »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #30
mrtksn wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Atta boy for Beijing but Russians don't seem to be having trouble running this war at all. They still get their precision machinery and simply eat M instead of McDonalds. Stuff getting expensive is no different than the west really. Slightly worse living standards can destroy the western democracies as they shift to extremist politics but has no effect on Russian leadership.

> Russians don't seem to be having trouble running this war at all They’re fighting like a ragtag African army, not a modern combined-arms one. Their latest air-defence systems which they once peddled for half a billion dollars each are being taken out by old American kit. The front lines barely budged while Ukraine was rationing arms; Russia is quite literally liquidating its economy and demography for Pyrrhic gains…

I like your optimism but this time around "the West" is a de-industrialized society and if China stops selling tiny electric motors the drone warfare will be lost as the west can't produce this stuff.

Everything is made in China, the factories are there even if the west holds rights and patents etc. The west is services heavy but there's little this expertise can do anything about blowing up people and vehicles.

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#40

Post by psunavy03 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #20
mark_l_watson wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t argue with your main points except to question if it is worth the money now. I was in the defense industry for 25 years, and my comments above are just my opinions on what is in the best interests of the US taxpayer today in 2024. I am questioning the value of having 800 military bases in foreign countries in 2024. What was once a good idea may not be worth the money and resources now. What does the US give u…

> What does the US give up not protecting the rest of the world? The number of lives we’d lose in the next world war. The end of Pax Americana won’t be sweet. That said, I agree there should be more thought as to the marginal benefit of the 800th base.

The marginal benefit of the so-called 800th base is giving planners and operations officers options in a crisis. The more places you either have your own infrastructure or access agreements or leases with a host country, the more you can a) disperse your force and complicate targeting when on the defensive and b) have multiple avenues of approach when on the offensive.

If the enemy knows all your forces have to flow into theater via airlift landing at Krablakistan Air Base in Elbonia, they're going to make war plans involving targeting your transports and pounding the living shit out of Krablakistan Air Base with air strikes and/or ballistic missiles. And beforehand, they'll do their level best to sow discord between your government and the Elbonians to the point they reconsider your access to their base in a crisis.

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