Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro • Hacker News Board

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#21

Post by mrtksn » Thu, Jun 13, 2024, 7:32 PM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #14

mrtksn wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

See, they don't actually block anybody but themselves. The Russians simply get their stuff from others.

> Russians simply get their stuff from others With less variety, slower and at higher cost [1]. And they’re not getting much of the high-tech kit [2]. (The Germans also had blockade runners. Everyone does. That doesn’t make a blockade less onerous.) Russian natural gas sales have also cratered; Beijing is leveraging its position as a monopsony to demand price concessions [3]. [1] https://www.csis.org/analysis/out-sto…

Atta boy for Beijing but Russians don't seem to be having trouble running this war at all. They still get their precision machinery and simply eat M instead of McDonalds.

Stuff getting expensive is no different than the west really. Slightly worse living standards can destroy the western democracies as they shift to extremist politics but has no effect on Russian leadership.

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#22

Post by mg » Thu, Jun 13, 2024, 7:32 PM UTC

Interesting, how different the monetary base over time looks like in China compared to the US and Europe when you click on "max" on these charts:

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/money-supply-m0

USA:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m0

Europe:

https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/money-supply-m0

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#23

Post by astrodust » Thu, Jun 13, 2024, 7:33 PM UTC

mark_l_watson wrote: post #2

As a US taxpayer I don’t particularly like this. We rely on being the world’s reserve currency, and many things get more expensive, e.g., serving government debt. In 2000-2001 we were able to effectively bully three countries that were talking about moving away from the US dollar, but I am not sure if that works now. I have a lot of personal theories how my country can best cope with future geopolitical adjustments.…

"We can have the strongest military in the world and have them largely based in the US."

Sure, if you want a really strong Coast Guard. As soon as you venture out of that little bubble you're going to need ports, air-bases, and other facilities.

China is suffering from a lack of these, they really can't operate anywhere in the world like the US can. The same goes for Russia. In effect, those two are completely boxed in.

By things like US bases all over the world.

You can even argue that historically Britain was disproportionately powerful because of their extensive network of bases and ports. Trade was relatively easy for them, while other European powers never had the same access.

Like it or not, the ability to trade and the strength of your power projection are often deeply inter-linked.

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#24

Post by init2null » Thu, Jun 13, 2024, 7:33 PM UTC

wnevets wrote: post #11

China is gonna keep buying up Russia for pennies on the dollar. I wouldn't be shocked if we start seeing actual territory switch from Russia to China in the next few years.

It will be tough for Russian pride to see their nation sink to the level of North Korea as a dependent of China. Given the brilliance of the USSR's scientific developments, it's a long way down.

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#25

Post by SXX » Thu, Jun 13, 2024, 7:33 PM UTC

lawn wrote: post #4

It's mentioned in the article, but the reaction to the sanctions seem fairly severe? Russian banks went down en masse, the spread of foreign currencies was larger than the official numbers, and people were queuing outside the banks to withdraw money. Of course, the Russian narrative is that this will hurt the west more than it will hurt Russia...

Unfortunately nothing really happened in Russia because the only meaningful exchange rate of RUB / USD pair is not set by some central bank or exchange, but crypto market:

https://www.bestchange.com/sberbank-to-tether-trc20.html

There was drop of like 5-10%, but that's nothing special. You can still go and buy as much USDT as you want for reasonable price. And this is what majority of normal people use to move money out of country.

PS: I am obviously anti-Putin dude, but at this point sanctions make very little difference short term. Giving more weapons to Ukraine is the only way to stop Russia.

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#26

Post by eric-hu » Thu, Jun 13, 2024, 7:35 PM UTC

bryanlarsen wrote: post #16

wnevets wrote: post #11

China is gonna keep buying up Russia for pennies on the dollar. I wouldn't be shocked if we start seeing actual territory switch from Russia to China in the next few years.

Vladivostok was recently required to be called 符拉迪沃斯托克 on Chinese maps. China claiming that territory back one way or another does seem to be likely.

Is that materially different? That’s just a Chinese phonetic representation of Vladivostok.

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#27

Post by mrtksn » Thu, Jun 13, 2024, 7:35 PM UTC

ajuc wrote: post #12

mrtksn wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

See, they don't actually block anybody but themselves. The Russians simply get their stuff from others.

With markup. That slows down the economy and makes everything more expansive. Whcih makes the economy not competetive on the international market. Keep it that way for a few decades and you get North Korea.

A few decades of war isn't helping anybody. Unlike the Russia, western politics shift because everything in the west is also getting expensive. Europe has seen this already.

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#28

Post by canjobear » Thu, Jun 13, 2024, 7:36 PM UTC

bryanlarsen wrote: post #16

wnevets wrote: post #11

China is gonna keep buying up Russia for pennies on the dollar. I wouldn't be shocked if we start seeing actual territory switch from Russia to China in the next few years.

Vladivostok was recently required to be called 符拉迪沃斯托克 on Chinese maps. China claiming that territory back one way or another does seem to be likely.

That’s literally “Vladivostok” in Chinese.

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#29

Post by queuebert » Thu, Jun 13, 2024, 7:37 PM UTC

mg wrote: post #22

Interesting, how different the monetary base over time looks like in China compared to the US and Europe when you click on "max" on these charts: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/money-supply-m0 USA: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m0 Europe: https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/money-supply-m0

What is the purpose of the annual spikes?

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#30

Post by JumpCrisscross » Thu, Jun 13, 2024, 7:37 PM UTC

mrtksn wrote: post #21

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Russians simply get their stuff from others With less variety, slower and at higher cost [1]. And they’re not getting much of the high-tech kit [2]. (The Germans also had blockade runners. Everyone does. That doesn’t make a blockade less onerous.) Russian natural gas sales have also cratered; Beijing is leveraging its position as a monopsony to demand price concessions [3]. [1] https://www.csis.org/analysis/out-sto…

Atta boy for Beijing but Russians don't seem to be having trouble running this war at all. They still get their precision machinery and simply eat M instead of McDonalds. Stuff getting expensive is no different than the west really. Slightly worse living standards can destroy the western democracies as they shift to extremist politics but has no effect on Russian leadership.

> Russians don't seem to be having trouble running this war at all

They’re fighting like a ragtag African army, not a modern combined-arms one. Their latest air-defence systems which they once peddled for half a billion dollars each are being taken out by old American kit. The front lines barely budged while Ukraine was rationing arms; Russia is quite literally liquidating its economy and demography for Pyrrhic gains. We are watching the voluntary disassembly of a regional power.

> Stuff getting expensive is no different than the west

There is a massive difference between eggs becoming more expensive and not being able to access modern chip fabrication.

> Slightly worse living standards can destroy the western democracies as they shift to extremist politics but has no effect on Russian leadership

This was the Nazis’ hypothesis. In the end, Britain was able to shift to a more-extreme war footing earlier and more forcefully.

Putin has made this claim, but goes out of his way to insulate the Moscow elite from the effects of the war. The history of democracies in war is generally that they’re far more resilient than strongmen.