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Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

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Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#61

Post by ffsm8 »

illiac786 wrote: post #60
ffsm8 wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You might notice that these quotes talk about the future. That's literally the point. They see a development and realize that they'll have a problem if the status quo is kept the same. It won't, which is why the actual issue mostly fails to realize as projected.

>it won’t That’s the core disagreement. It’s like when a car is driving with 200mph toward a brick wall and you say “I don’t understand why they panic, the car will stop doing that before hitting the wall”. Sure, that’s a possibility. But I understand projecting a current trajectory in trying to prepare for the future.

> It’s like when a car is driving with 200mph toward a brick wall and you say “I don’t understand why they panic, the car will stop doing that before hitting the wall”.

I disagree, it's more like you're in a tank and have been running over every obstacle in the way, with someone on the side constantly shouting "new next one is going to destroy your tank". It's obviously possible, but considering how little we're already valuing labor and have been in a phase of adding even more entirely pointless jobs because the labor is cheap and available - I honestly do believe that I'd be a very healthy thing for our societies to downsize (numerically) again. At least to pre world war 1 levels.

It's obviously not going to be easy, but this whole system is going to go bust anyway once the millennials get too old to work, immigration at best postpones this issue for a few years while introducing a shitton of new ones to the equation.

There is no perfect solution, but immigration is one of the worst for this particular problem

Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#62

Post by illiac786 »

ffsm8 wrote: post #61
illiac786 wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>it won’t That’s the core disagreement. It’s like when a car is driving with 200mph toward a brick wall and you say “I don’t understand why they panic, the car will stop doing that before hitting the wall”. Sure, that’s a possibility. But I understand projecting a current trajectory in trying to prepare for the future.

> It’s like when a car is driving with 200mph toward a brick wall and you say “I don’t understand why they panic, the car will stop doing that before hitting the wall”. I disagree, it's more like you're in a tank and have been running over every obstacle in the way, with someone on the side constantly shouting "new next one is going to destroy your tank". It's obviously possible, but considering how little we're alre…

I don’t think any of the past obstacles compare with what’s to come.

The asteroid impact 60M years ago could be compared but there wasn’t any society at the time.

What past “obstacle” has humanity overcome would compare to what’s coming in your view?

Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#63

Post by incomingpain »

Gigachad wrote: post #52
incomingpain wrote: post #42

>The next six years, until the 2030s, will be “the last chance for us to possibly reverse the trend,” he said. I feel like this is set in stone at this point. Virtually no chance these will change in the next 6 years. >“Simple economic measures such as increase of subsidies are not going to resolve the serious problem of declining births,” This is going to be shockingly bad for Japan. They are about 15 years too late…

Maybe I’m under thinking it, but this problem seems relatively simple to solve. Just make raising kids free. You get free childcare, and get paid a wage to raise your kids.

>Maybe I’m under thinking it, but this problem seems relatively simple to solve. Just make raising kids free. You get free childcare, and get paid a wage to raise your kids.

Way too simple. This is the case already. Here in Canada you literally get paid ~$2000/kid/year. straight up cash. This is true elsewhere as well, and each place has the same aging population and low fertility.

This isn't a matter of what can fix the problem. The actual cause of the problem is government essentially legislated this to be the case. This problem largely speaking is the root cause of political polarization.

Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#64

Post by acdha »

incomingpain wrote: post #63
Gigachad wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe I’m under thinking it, but this problem seems relatively simple to solve. Just make raising kids free. You get free childcare, and get paid a wage to raise your kids.

>Maybe I’m under thinking it, but this problem seems relatively simple to solve. Just make raising kids free. You get free childcare, and get paid a wage to raise your kids. Way too simple. This is the case already. Here in Canada you literally get paid ~$2000/kid/year. straight up cash. This is true elsewhere as well, and each place has the same aging population and low fertility. This isn't a matter of what can fix…

$2k/year is nowhere near even the direct costs of raising a child. Think about how much an extra bedroom and food would cost even before you get to things like childcare, education, increased travel costs, etc.

Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#65

Post by Gigachad »

incomingpain wrote: post #63
Gigachad wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe I’m under thinking it, but this problem seems relatively simple to solve. Just make raising kids free. You get free childcare, and get paid a wage to raise your kids.

>Maybe I’m under thinking it, but this problem seems relatively simple to solve. Just make raising kids free. You get free childcare, and get paid a wage to raise your kids. Way too simple. This is the case already. Here in Canada you literally get paid ~$2000/kid/year. straight up cash. This is true elsewhere as well, and each place has the same aging population and low fertility. This isn't a matter of what can fix…

$2k would hardly cover anything. I'm talking about free schooling and supplies, free childcare, free gear for raising kids, and a payment to cover the rest.

Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#66

Post by speff »

sam_goody wrote: post #39

I read on HN a pretty convincing essay that if a car-seat was only required while under a year, and a booster while under 2, there would be something like 10% more births in the U.S. every year. There are always those families (especially among the religious) that would have larger families, with not obvious things that limit them. Knowing nothing about Japan, but living in the U.S. where birthrates are also falling,…

Was interested in the stat you mentioned. Here[1] it is for anyone else who wants to read up on it

[1]: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c4daDbQD398BmW5k5/on-car-sea...

Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#67

Post by ffsm8 »

illiac786 wrote: post #62
ffsm8 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It’s like when a car is driving with 200mph toward a brick wall and you say “I don’t understand why they panic, the car will stop doing that before hitting the wall”. I disagree, it's more like you're in a tank and have been running over every obstacle in the way, with someone on the side constantly shouting "new next one is going to destroy your tank". It's obviously possible, but considering how little we're alre…

I don’t think any of the past obstacles compare with what’s to come. The asteroid impact 60M years ago could be compared but there wasn’t any society at the time. What past “obstacle” has humanity overcome would compare to what’s coming in your view?

I was specifically and only talking about what amounts to a labor shortage. This whole discussion is centered around the issue that our societies are getting older, which is why we supposedly need immigration to offset the low birth rate. this issue in particular has been raised and solved through automation repeatedly since the industrial revolution.

Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#68

Post by marcusverus »

RestlessMind wrote: post #54
marcusverus wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'd obliterate your culture and deprive your children of an ethnic homeland... just to avoid making prudent updates to the welfare state? The distain you people have for culture would make a Conoco executive blush.

> just to avoid making prudent updates to the welfare state? Japan's population pyramid in 1980: https://www.populationpyramid.net/japan/1980/ In 2024: https://www.populationpyramid.net/japan/2022/ When the ratio of "workers" / "dependents" shrink dramatically as those 2 graphs attest, we cannot have "prudent" updates. There will either be "painful" updates, or need to sacrifice something else (like getting immigrant…

No cut is so painful as to make cultural suicide a preferable alternative.

BTW, needing more workers doesn't necessitate immigration--it necessitates more workers. Why do you guys always jump straight to permanent immigration? What's wrong with a temporary work visa?

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