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Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

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Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#51

Post by yongjik »

ffsm8 wrote: post #40
pupppet wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The need to preserve culture goes out the window when there's no young person to change your bed pan.

Considering that Japan and Korea do just fine is proof that youre arguing with a straw man. Same with European nations that didn't just invite everyone and their grandma to immigrate such as Switzerland. The technological advances / robots will outpace the need for immigration, and has for the last decades too. Its just profitable for the capital as immigrants are a source of cheap labor which can be used to surpress…

> Considering that Japan and Korea do just fine is proof that youre arguing with a straw man.

Not sure about Japan, but anybody who thinks Korea is doing "just fine" has not been following Korean news. Daycares are closing left and right because there aren't enough kids. Now it's moving up to secondary schools. Soon it will be cafes and restaurants as there aren't enough customers. Then the whole economy will crumble down.

Technology doesn't help when there aren't enough people buying your product and services.

Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#52

Post by Gigachad »

incomingpain wrote: post #42

>The next six years, until the 2030s, will be “the last chance for us to possibly reverse the trend,” he said. I feel like this is set in stone at this point. Virtually no chance these will change in the next 6 years. >“Simple economic measures such as increase of subsidies are not going to resolve the serious problem of declining births,” This is going to be shockingly bad for Japan. They are about 15 years too late…

Maybe I’m under thinking it, but this problem seems relatively simple to solve. Just make raising kids free. You get free childcare, and get paid a wage to raise your kids.

Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#53

Post by RestlessMind »

ffsm8 wrote: post #40
pupppet wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The need to preserve culture goes out the window when there's no young person to change your bed pan.

Considering that Japan and Korea do just fine is proof that youre arguing with a straw man. Same with European nations that didn't just invite everyone and their grandma to immigrate such as Switzerland. The technological advances / robots will outpace the need for immigration, and has for the last decades too. Its just profitable for the capital as immigrants are a source of cheap labor which can be used to surpress…

> Considering that Japan and Korea do just fine

Citation needed. If they were doing "just fine", then this wouldn't have happened (from TFA):

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi told reporters that it's "a critical situation.” The next six years, until the 2030s, will be “the last chance for us to possibly reverse the trend,” he said.

> The technological advances / robots will outpace the need for immigration

I will believe it when I see it. Or to refer to GP's point - where is the robot that will change bed pan?

Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#54

Post by RestlessMind »

marcusverus wrote: post #44
pupppet wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The need to preserve culture goes out the window when there's no young person to change your bed pan.

You'd obliterate your culture and deprive your children of an ethnic homeland... just to avoid making prudent updates to the welfare state? The distain you people have for culture would make a Conoco executive blush.

> just to avoid making prudent updates to the welfare state?

Japan's population pyramid in 1980: https://www.populationpyramid.net/japan/1980/

In 2024: https://www.populationpyramid.net/japan/2022/

When the ratio of "workers" / "dependents" shrink dramatically as those 2 graphs attest, we cannot have "prudent" updates. There will either be "painful" updates, or need to sacrifice something else (like getting immigrants).

Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#55

Post by RestlessMind »

PeterHolzwarth wrote: post #34

It's good that we all prepare for this trend which has been ongoing all over the place for decades: wealth drops birthrates. Recall that in the 1970s, it was assumed that growth rates would continue unabated - this is why the 70s had so much apocalypse pop media about overpop like Soylent Green etc. The green revolution that was going on at the time hadn't yet registered with demographers. This apparently inexorable…

> but it does still give one a shiver to envision what we'll have to master to navigate this process down to the projected population equilibrium.

Easier said than done. This is where I see the most of hand waving. Robots haven't materialized yet, neither any political will to shrink the safety net.

Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#56

Post by skeledrew »

rainsford wrote: post #10

What's most interesting to me about this trend around the developed world is that nobody has put together a truly compelling theory as to the root cause. There's lots of obviously politically motivated theories, like liberals saying it's because of soul crushing capitalism run amok or conservatives saying it's because women aren't kept barefoot and pregnant in the kitchen, but for as consequential as the whole thing…

It's a bit of both, though the former to a larger extent. Pretty logical and inevitable that if people don't have enough time or are too tired (physically or mentally) to make babies, then they won't be made. Women choosing career over housemaking only exacerbates the issue, but also this choice is forced by still-immature social expectations combined with a brutal economic model. End of the day, Capitalism drives extinction.

Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#57

Post by alx_the_new_guy »

RestlessMind wrote: post #55
PeterHolzwarth wrote: post #34

It's good that we all prepare for this trend which has been ongoing all over the place for decades: wealth drops birthrates. Recall that in the 1970s, it was assumed that growth rates would continue unabated - this is why the 70s had so much apocalypse pop media about overpop like Soylent Green etc. The green revolution that was going on at the time hadn't yet registered with demographers. This apparently inexorable…

> but it does still give one a shiver to envision what we'll have to master to navigate this process down to the projected population equilibrium. Easier said than done. This is where I see the most of hand waving. Robots haven't materialized yet, neither any political will to shrink the safety net.

>Robots haven't materialized yet, neither any political will to shrink the safety net.

Human-like general-purpose robots - yes. Except, by definition, a robot, essentially a programmable mechanism, not something human-like.

Stuff like warehouses is getting increasingly automated, planes basically can fly and land themselves without human in the loop, autonomous cars are not here, but are coming in the next decade probably.

Personally, I haven't bought a cup of coffe a human made in at least a decade. That's some poor barista's salary not getting paid.

Not that I would know the difference between a 5/10 coffe from a machine and a theoretically 10/10 coffe a professional would make. And a machine makes one for a whole lot cheaper.

Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#58

Post by ffsm8 »

RestlessMind wrote: post #53
ffsm8 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Considering that Japan and Korea do just fine is proof that youre arguing with a straw man. Same with European nations that didn't just invite everyone and their grandma to immigrate such as Switzerland. The technological advances / robots will outpace the need for immigration, and has for the last decades too. Its just profitable for the capital as immigrants are a source of cheap labor which can be used to surpress…

> Considering that Japan and Korea do just fine Citation needed. If they were doing "just fine", then this wouldn't have happened (from TFA): Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi told reporters that it's "a critical situation.” The next six years, until the 2030s, will be “the last chance for us to possibly reverse the trend,” he said. > The technological advances / robots will outpace the need for immigration I…

You might notice that these quotes talk about the future. That's literally the point. They see a development and realize that they'll have a problem if the status quo is kept the same.

It won't, which is why the actual issue mostly fails to realize as projected.

Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#59

Post by ffsm8 »

yongjik wrote: post #51
ffsm8 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Considering that Japan and Korea do just fine is proof that youre arguing with a straw man. Same with European nations that didn't just invite everyone and their grandma to immigrate such as Switzerland. The technological advances / robots will outpace the need for immigration, and has for the last decades too. Its just profitable for the capital as immigrants are a source of cheap labor which can be used to surpress…

> Considering that Japan and Korea do just fine is proof that youre arguing with a straw man. Not sure about Japan, but anybody who thinks Korea is doing "just fine" has not been following Korean news. Daycares are closing left and right because there aren't enough kids. Now it's moving up to secondary schools. Soon it will be cafes and restaurants as there aren't enough customers. Then the whole economy will crumble…

You're projecting current developments into the future, ignoring that things change on the way there.

If your expectation is that everything has to stay the same: then yes, alarm bells should be going of. For 40+ years already considering pollution, climate change etc.

But labor has gotten less important with every step since the industrial revolution, objectively speaking the shrinking nations will have a lot less issues medium/long term then the ones "restocking" via immigration

Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#60

Post by illiac786 »

ffsm8 wrote: post #58
RestlessMind wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Considering that Japan and Korea do just fine Citation needed. If they were doing "just fine", then this wouldn't have happened (from TFA): Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi told reporters that it's "a critical situation.” The next six years, until the 2030s, will be “the last chance for us to possibly reverse the trend,” he said. > The technological advances / robots will outpace the need for immigration I…

You might notice that these quotes talk about the future. That's literally the point. They see a development and realize that they'll have a problem if the status quo is kept the same. It won't, which is why the actual issue mostly fails to realize as projected.

>it won’t

That’s the core disagreement. It’s like when a car is driving with 200mph toward a brick wall and you say “I don’t understand why they panic, the car will stop doing that before hitting the wall”.

Sure, that’s a possibility. But I understand projecting a current trajectory in trying to prepare for the future.

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