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Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

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Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#31

Post by lazide »

jiggawatts wrote: post #28
lazide wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is all post-facto rationalization to avoid a more glaring truth. Women aren’t having kids - because they can avoid having kids. While still having sex and having societal benefits, including retirement. That is a very, very new and unusual situation when looking at the span of human history. Birth control is a pretty new invention (mid 60’s approximately), and societies globally have been steadily rolling it out…

You're looking at the trees but missing the forest. Birth control is available in countries where women are having over 5 kids on average each despite that. Similarly, legalisation or the illegality of abortion has no significant effect on child birth rates. Availability of birth control (or abortion) alone doesn't explain the "big picture", it just alters it a little bit. These are Catholic and conservative talking…

Not confused at all - both have to work because both can work. Supply increases, so ‘price’ decreases per person. Forest wise.

Previously, women (unless celibate or okay having abortions a lot) had no choice but to spend time at home, which forced the market in that direction.

And I’m also not confused about birth control availability. You’re confusing ‘theoretically available’ vs ‘socially acceptable available’, which those societies haven’t hit yet. Ideologically, they’re very resistant - but changing.

Just like the changes in the US (starting to be possible in the 60’s) didn’t become the norm until the 80’s to 90’s or later. American Catholics have been okay with birth control since then (roughly), where South American Catholics are still against it.

Which, notably, is when the US started to become more heavily two-income household dependent. And when wages stopped keeping up with growth.

Without birth control being possible, none of it matters - which is why it being possible is actually important. And why we’ve been seeing steady change in societies since it has become possible.

Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#32

Post by __warlord__ »

Barrin92 wrote: post #20

Genuine question, why instead of going down this evidently ineffective route of trying to dial back family structures and social relations we don't just go in the opposite direction? Fire up a Manhattan project for longevity and age related disease. Not even talking about reversing aging, but if we could give the average person 100 healthy and productive years and minimize the cost of aging we've at the very least go…

I think this will backfire sooner than later, Imagine a dictator living "100 healthy and productive years" or a billionaire amazing more and more wealth for longer whereas poor people are kept working for longer with poorer and poorer conditions.

Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#33

Post by lazide »

dalyons wrote: post #30
cue_the_strings wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're in a situation where even discussing or proposing any realistic solution to this is considered too radical (how dare you propose controlling other peoples' lives). Yet societies will collapse because of it, or come close to collapse. The only "allowed" solution is importing people from poor countries into richer ones, but disguised as something humanitarian, taking in refugees of war or whatnot.

If your realistic solution is some form of forced natalism, then yeah, we shouldn’t be talking about that. It’s ethically wrong and unpalatable to the vast majority of people in developed societies, it’s not a thing that we should be entertaining.

One way or another, most likely ideological, things will change. Probably in the ‘over correct once it’s too late, in some terribly traumatic fashion’ as is the norm.

Eventually, likely in the direction of gun control - birth control being licensed or the like. Or being religious being a requirement again to be a ‘respected member of society’.

Unlikely to be popular of course, but eventually society will change to protect its interests - or die.

Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#34

Post by PeterHolzwarth »

It's good that we all prepare for this trend which has been ongoing all over the place for decades: wealth drops birthrates.

Recall that in the 1970s, it was assumed that growth rates would continue unabated - this is why the 70s had so much apocalypse pop media about overpop like Soylent Green etc. The green revolution that was going on at the time hadn't yet registered with demographers.

This apparently inexorable process of growth leading to lower birthrate means that mankind's impact on the planet has at least a partial limit (number of humans screwing the pooch will peak and recede, even if the impact per human may keep growing), so we can take some degree of consolation in that.

But that leaves the remaining question of how we deal with the fact that the number of economic participants peaks and then recedes (negative growth ain't a pretty process). We can look at recessions as a starting guide to this process, but it does still give one a shiver to envision what we'll have to master to navigate this process down to the projected population equilibrium.

It's all the above that explains the nods that countries like the U.S. get from economists: when there is a global trend of dropping birthrates which can impact econ growth, countries that specialize in immigration can buck that trend for a bit.

Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#35

Post by pupppet »

marcusverus wrote: post #29
pupppet wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s not replacing the native population, it’s replacing the births that never took place.

The Mexicans who lived in Texas in the early 19th century saw a relentless stream of Anglo settlers from the USA and beyond. Within a couple of decades, Texas demographics changed radically, and society changed along with it. The previous (Mexican) inhabitants' children went on to grow up in a society with a radically different culture with a different language. Imagine a Mexican child coming home from a visit to a w…

The need to preserve culture goes out the window when there's no young person to change your bed pan.

Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#36

Post by tivert »

lazide wrote: post #21
reducesuffering wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> including retirement I think social safety nets are an under-reported cause of this. 80 years ago, children were your retirement plan. Long term stable value pensions and 401ks, along with government ensured healthcare and social security, weren't a thing. If you got to 70 without kids, you would eventually not be able to work and probably die poor. Now, almost everyone thinks not having kids could be an option, be…

The issue of course being that when there is a population crunch, there is no ‘rest of societies labor’ free, like there would be with a normal population age curve. If the crunch is big enough, anyway. Same with the tax base used to fund gov’t healthcare and similar programs. That said, Japan has… problems. But they aren’t apocalyptic. At least not yet.

> The issue of course being that when there is a population crunch, there is no ‘rest of societies labor’ free, like there would be with a normal population age curve.

Yeah. For that reason, old age pensions should be tied to how many kids you've had, not how much money you paid into the system during your working years. If you have no kids, you get no pension. If you want to support in old age, you need to contribute to the next generation's labor pool to provide that support. Otherwise, you need to work to support yourself.

Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#37

Post by xeornet »

pupppet wrote: post #27
xeornet wrote: post #26

At least they won’t open up to mass immigration to replace the native population - something being looked at as a solution in the West. https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.deve...

That’s not replacing the native population, it’s replacing the births that never took place.

They are one and the same. Maybe constant population growth should not be our blind goal. It leads to cultures with higher birth rates taking over.

Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#38

Post by thefz »

reducesuffering wrote: post #5

In 80 years, societies are going from 2 children supporting each adult, to each child supporting 2 adults. That's a 4x elderly burden that I don't think is significantly ameliorated by lack of kids. Socialized medical care for the elderly around the developed world is already barely able to manage. Elderly countries like Japan, Greece, Italy, and Portgual are already at debt-to-GDP burdens of 261%, 177%, 145%, and 11…

Our bad, we should not have built a society based on debt and now we are going to take the brunt of it, there needs to be an inflection point to turn things around, though.

Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#39

Post by sam_goody »

I read on HN a pretty convincing essay that if a car-seat was only required while under a year, and a booster while under 2, there would be something like 10% more births in the U.S. every year.

There are always those families (especially among the religious) that would have larger families, with not obvious things that limit them. Knowing nothing about Japan, but living in the U.S. where birthrates are also falling, I would think state effort should be put into this.

Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#40

Post by ffsm8 »

pupppet wrote: post #35
marcusverus wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Mexicans who lived in Texas in the early 19th century saw a relentless stream of Anglo settlers from the USA and beyond. Within a couple of decades, Texas demographics changed radically, and society changed along with it. The previous (Mexican) inhabitants' children went on to grow up in a society with a radically different culture with a different language. Imagine a Mexican child coming home from a visit to a w…

The need to preserve culture goes out the window when there's no young person to change your bed pan.

Considering that Japan and Korea do just fine is proof that youre arguing with a straw man. Same with European nations that didn't just invite everyone and their grandma to immigrate such as Switzerland.

The technological advances / robots will outpace the need for immigration, and has for the last decades too.

Its just profitable for the capital as immigrants are a source of cheap labor which can be used to surpress wages.

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