Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops
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Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops
#2[dead]
Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops
#3[dead]
Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops
#4A highly insightful book on Japanese culture on what makes people reluctant to be part of society (getting married, having children etc) is "Shutting Out the Sun: How Japan Created Its Own Lost Generation"
Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops
#5In 80 years, societies are going from 2 children supporting each adult, to each child supporting 2 adults. That's a 4x elderly burden that I don't think is significantly ameliorated by lack of kids. Socialized medical care for the elderly around the developed world is already barely able to manage. Elderly countries like Japan, Greece, Italy, and Portgual are already at debt-to-GDP burdens of 261%, 177%, 145%, and 116%, respectively. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe every 100% debt-to-GDP at current 5% rates is like an extra indefinite 5%/year tax taken from everyone, with no benefit (you already got the benefit in the past).
Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops
#6I wonder when people will make the connection between monetary inflation and birth rates. You can also see the crash in birth rates even in rural provinces of Turkey.
Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops
#7I wonder when people will make the connection between monetary inflation and birth rates. You can also see the crash in birth rates even in rural provinces of Turkey.
> wonder when people will make the connection between monetary inflation and birth rates
It's been studied. The connections are as non-obvious as they are fascinating.
In the Pacific Islands, a "1% increase in CPI (inflation) will decrease total fertility rate by 0.41%" [1]. (This effect was much stronger than female education and real GDP changes.) This supports your hypothesis.
When we look at rich countries, however, we find that "an increase in annual inflation of 1 percentage point would bring an increase of 0.06 percentage point in the annual growth of the total population" [2]. Inflation increases fertility!
A clue as to why might be found in the U.K., where among "home owners" they found "evidence of positive but temporary effects of house prices on fertility," with "a 10% increase in the average house price in a given month increases the fertility of home owners by 2.4% in the following year" [3]. Among renters, on the other hand, "fertility rates are lower by the order of 2 to 4%. Fertility rates for this group remain lower three years later, suggesting house price increases affect completed fertility as well as the timing of births."
[1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8457485/ Table 8
[2] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S10590...
[3] https://www.bristol.ac.uk/cmm/research/housing/publications/...
Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops
#8Only six years to turn that around? That is a mammoth task. I’m not sure that will be possible.
Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops
#9In 80 years, societies are going from 2 children supporting each adult, to each child supporting 2 adults. That's a 4x elderly burden that I don't think is significantly ameliorated by lack of kids. Socialized medical care for the elderly around the developed world is already barely able to manage. Elderly countries like Japan, Greece, Italy, and Portgual are already at debt-to-GDP burdens of 261%, 177%, 145%, and 11…
> Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe every 100% debt-to-GDP at current 5% rates is like an extra indefinite 5%/year tax taken from everyone
You're wrong.
You need to consider the real returns on that debt, its real burden, and interagency holdings (e.g. the Treasury paying the Fed interest). Also, that debt is serviced with taxes. Adding it to the tax burden is double counting.
The debt is analogous to taxation. But not so much that you can numerically equate them.
Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops
#10What's most interesting to me about this trend around the developed world is that nobody has put together a truly compelling theory as to the root cause. There's lots of obviously politically motivated theories, like liberals saying it's because of soul crushing capitalism run amok or conservatives saying it's because women aren't kept barefoot and pregnant in the kitchen, but for as consequential as the whole thing is it seems very light on legitimate analysis (at least that I've seen).