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Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

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Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#11

Post by SSJPython »

inflationq wrote: post #6

I wonder when people will make the connection between monetary inflation and birth rates. You can also see the crash in birth rates even in rural provinces of Turkey.

Japanese inflation is only a recent phenomenon. Prior to the pandemic, they were experiencing deflation and the BoJ was doing everything in its power to get some inflation. The falling birth rate, on the other hand, has been going on for far longer than monetary inflation.

Falling birth rates are often correlated with discretionary income levels and women's education.

Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#12

Post by rrr_oh_man »

rainsford wrote: post #10

What's most interesting to me about this trend around the developed world is that nobody has put together a truly compelling theory as to the root cause. There's lots of obviously politically motivated theories, like liberals saying it's because of soul crushing capitalism run amok or conservatives saying it's because women aren't kept barefoot and pregnant in the kitchen, but for as consequential as the whole thing…

For everyone else who heard this for the first time:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barefoot_and_pregnant

Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#13

Post by jiggawatts »

rainsford wrote: post #10

What's most interesting to me about this trend around the developed world is that nobody has put together a truly compelling theory as to the root cause. There's lots of obviously politically motivated theories, like liberals saying it's because of soul crushing capitalism run amok or conservatives saying it's because women aren't kept barefoot and pregnant in the kitchen, but for as consequential as the whole thing…

There have been scientific studies done by anthropologists, but they're a different clique to economists and they basically "don't talk to each other".

Essentially, there's a sort-of phase diagram for the optimal human reproduction strategy where the axes are things like "income inequality" and "environmental stress". You can then color in patches of the diagram with what strategy members of a society will settle on.

For example, high-stress, high-inequality societies practice polygamy. The game-theoretic logic is that women need a partner that can provide consistent excess calories. If you can't feed your kids in just one year out of twenty, they die. It doesn't matter what the average income is, just how steady the income is. In societies like that, only the richest 10% of men can provide this, so they all have 10 wives. The other 90% of men remain bachelors and often participate in tribal warfare, exacerbating the problem. Saudi Arabia used to be like this, and parts of Africa still is.

Similarly, in "one corner" of this graph is super rich men in stable societies, where their optimal reproduction strategy is serial monogamy to young wives. Look at Hollywood A-listers or billionaries to see this play out in real life.

Japan got stuck in a part of the phase diagram where the optimal reproduction strategy is "don't."

Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#15

Post by dalyons »

jiggawatts wrote: post #13
rainsford wrote: post #10

What's most interesting to me about this trend around the developed world is that nobody has put together a truly compelling theory as to the root cause. There's lots of obviously politically motivated theories, like liberals saying it's because of soul crushing capitalism run amok or conservatives saying it's because women aren't kept barefoot and pregnant in the kitchen, but for as consequential as the whole thing…

There have been scientific studies done by anthropologists, but they're a different clique to economists and they basically "don't talk to each other". Essentially, there's a sort-of phase diagram for the optimal human reproduction strategy where the axes are things like "income inequality" and "environmental stress". You can then color in patches of the diagram with what strategy members of a society will settle on.…

im always kinda skeptical of these evolutionary game theory type theories when applying them to modern developed societies. Maybe they were true in the past, but we have largely removed ourselves from natural selection in any of the traditional ways. It doesn't mean there arent other game selection mechanisms, but they're likely very different to 1000s of years ago. Like, for example broadly no-one is having their kids all starve to death in modern japan.

Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#16

Post by lazide »

jiggawatts wrote: post #13
rainsford wrote: post #10

What's most interesting to me about this trend around the developed world is that nobody has put together a truly compelling theory as to the root cause. There's lots of obviously politically motivated theories, like liberals saying it's because of soul crushing capitalism run amok or conservatives saying it's because women aren't kept barefoot and pregnant in the kitchen, but for as consequential as the whole thing…

There have been scientific studies done by anthropologists, but they're a different clique to economists and they basically "don't talk to each other". Essentially, there's a sort-of phase diagram for the optimal human reproduction strategy where the axes are things like "income inequality" and "environmental stress". You can then color in patches of the diagram with what strategy members of a society will settle on.…

This is all post-facto rationalization to avoid a more glaring truth.

Women aren’t having kids - because they can avoid having kids. While still having sex and having societal benefits, including retirement. That is a very, very new and unusual situation when looking at the span of human history.

Birth control is a pretty new invention (mid 60’s approximately), and societies globally have been steadily rolling it out/making it available more easily.

Childbirth is dangerous (especially the first time), usually ruins one’s figure (and hence ‘market value’), and is economically very expensive.

At a minimum 4-6 months of ‘non productive’ work time per pregnancy, not counting the several years of near constant caretaking for a newborn. Which kills normal careers, where taking ‘time off’ pretty much guarantees you’ll be surpassed by all your competition - and 2-2.5 years pretty much guarantees it. And that is for an office job, not labor.

Before birth control, the only way to do that would have required celibacy or constant abortions - and good luck suppressing that drive for most people!

It’s like wondering why almost everyone is fat and out of shape when there is no public transit, everyone has to drive everywhere (and gets stuck in traffic), food is terrible and junky, jobs are mostly sedentary, etc.

Of course that’s how folks will be on average when that’s the environment! And birth rates are by definition based on the average behavior.

Coupled with the fact it’s relatively easy to survive/live in society without kids now, and it’s a double whammy. At least until the consequences of having no kids for a long time come home to roost - then everyone is going to be fucked. Figuratively.

Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#18

Post by reducesuffering »

lazide wrote: post #16
jiggawatts wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There have been scientific studies done by anthropologists, but they're a different clique to economists and they basically "don't talk to each other". Essentially, there's a sort-of phase diagram for the optimal human reproduction strategy where the axes are things like "income inequality" and "environmental stress". You can then color in patches of the diagram with what strategy members of a society will settle on.…

This is all post-facto rationalization to avoid a more glaring truth. Women aren’t having kids - because they can avoid having kids. While still having sex and having societal benefits, including retirement. That is a very, very new and unusual situation when looking at the span of human history. Birth control is a pretty new invention (mid 60’s approximately), and societies globally have been steadily rolling it out…

> including retirement

I think social safety nets are an under-reported cause of this. 80 years ago, children were your retirement plan. Long term stable value pensions and 401ks, along with government ensured healthcare and social security, weren't a thing. If you got to 70 without kids, you would eventually not be able to work and probably die poor.

Now, almost everyone thinks not having kids could be an option, because of course they'll have some savings (the rest of society's labor), and government healthcare, and the government won't let them become destitute.

Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#19

Post by reducesuffering »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #9
reducesuffering wrote: post #5

In 80 years, societies are going from 2 children supporting each adult, to each child supporting 2 adults. That's a 4x elderly burden that I don't think is significantly ameliorated by lack of kids. Socialized medical care for the elderly around the developed world is already barely able to manage. Elderly countries like Japan, Greece, Italy, and Portgual are already at debt-to-GDP burdens of 261%, 177%, 145%, and 11…

> Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe every 100% debt-to-GDP at current 5% rates is like an extra indefinite 5%/year tax taken from everyone You're wrong. You need to consider the real returns on that debt, its real burden, and interagency holdings ( e.g. the Treasury paying the Fed interest). Also, that debt is serviced with taxes. Adding it to the tax burden is double counting. The debt is analogous to taxation.…

> real returns on that debt, its real burden

It's real GDP, and it's not being inflated away. It theoretically attempts to, (2% inflation), but because more real debt is taken out, GDP still goes from 100% -> 105% the next year.

The real returns on this debt is hardly investments and infrastructure that will make more things in the future, it's mostly social spending like healthcare.

> that debt is serviced with taxes. Adding it to the tax burden is double counting.

If I would normally pay 35% taxes for the country's defense and social spending, but there's also servicing interest, I now have to pay 40% taxes. So it's an extra indefinite 5%/yr tax like I said, but I only got 35% of defense and social benefits.

Re: Japan's birth rate falls to a record low as the number of marriages also drops

#20

Post by Barrin92 »

Genuine question, why instead of going down this evidently ineffective route of trying to dial back family structures and social relations we don't just go in the opposite direction? Fire up a Manhattan project for longevity and age related disease.

Not even talking about reversing aging, but if we could give the average person 100 healthy and productive years and minimize the cost of aging we've at the very least gotten rid of the single biggest pressing issue of the demographic changes.

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