Excess mortality across the Western World since the Covid pandemic • Hacker News Board

Re: Excess mortality across the Western World since the Covid pandemic

#31

Post by marcinzm » Tue, Jun 04, 2024, 11:01 AM UTC

auggierose wrote: post #22

marcinzm wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looking at that study for Pfizer and Moderna it's a slightly increased risk of myocarditis and shoulder injury at the site of injection. That's it. All other side effects they either didn't have enough evidence for or found that the evidence explicitly rejects a causal relationship.

Myocarditis is a pretty serious thing [1], so even a slight increase in risk in young people makes it pretty much a no-no to vaccinate them. [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9888677/#:~:tex... .

Given that study you'd expect over an extra 10 years somewhere around 10k excess deaths from the vaccine in the US. That's probably very generous. That's tiny versus mortality rates from COVID.

Re: Excess mortality across the Western World since the Covid pandemic

#32

Post by auggierose » Tue, Jun 04, 2024, 11:01 AM UTC

smallerize wrote: post #25

auggierose wrote: post #3

[dead]

MRNA - myocarditis, non-MRNA - thrombosis. Plus risk of shoulder injury from a botched injection. Small fucking potatoes against millions dead plus millions more injured. I'm on 5 shots and I guess I'm due for a booster.

Go bold or go home. That's a good scientific attitude.

Yeah, that myocarditis, it's basically like a flu.

Re: Excess mortality across the Western World since the Covid pandemic

#33

Post by deng » Tue, Jun 04, 2024, 11:01 AM UTC

auggierose wrote: post #22

marcinzm wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looking at that study for Pfizer and Moderna it's a slightly increased risk of myocarditis and shoulder injury at the site of injection. That's it. All other side effects they either didn't have enough evidence for or found that the evidence explicitly rejects a causal relationship.

Myocarditis is a pretty serious thing [1], so even a slight increase in risk in young people makes it pretty much a no-no to vaccinate them. [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9888677/#:~:tex... .

Fully agree, so one more reason to get vaccinated, as getting myocarditis from Covid is far more common.

https://newsroom.heart.org/news/myocarditis-risk-significant...

Re: Excess mortality across the Western World since the Covid pandemic

#34

Post by realreality » Tue, Jun 04, 2024, 11:02 AM UTC

brabel wrote: post #21

"In 2020, the year of the COVID-19 pandemic onset and implementation of containment measures, records present 1 033 122 excess deaths (P-score 11.4%). In 2021, the year in which both containment measures and COVID-19 vaccines were used to address virus spread and infection, the highest number of excess deaths was reported: 1 256 942 excess deaths (P-score 13.8%). In 2022, when most containment measures were lifted an…

Regarding 2022:

> The presented data, especially for 2022, are thus preliminary and subject to backward revisions. The more recent data are usually more incomplete and therefore can undergo upward revisions over time. This implies that several of the reported excess mortality estimates can be underestimations.

Re: Excess mortality across the Western World since the Covid pandemic

#35

Post by DyslexicAtheist » Tue, Jun 04, 2024, 11:03 AM UTC

auggierose wrote: post #3

[dead]

thanks for sharing this. I initially wrote your comment off as an anti-vaxx lunatic but after reading the actual paper I decided to vouch for this comment instead after it's been dead.

Re: Excess mortality across the Western World since the Covid pandemic

#36

Post by auggierose » Tue, Jun 04, 2024, 11:03 AM UTC

marcinzm wrote: post #31

auggierose wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Myocarditis is a pretty serious thing [1], so even a slight increase in risk in young people makes it pretty much a no-no to vaccinate them. [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9888677/#:~:tex... .

Given that study you'd expect over an extra 10 years somewhere around 10k excess deaths from the vaccine in the US. That's probably very generous. That's tiny versus mortality rates from COVID.

Except of course it hits those who would not have had any problem with COVID in the first place: young people.

Personally, I'd like that explained to me before the shot.

Re: Excess mortality across the Western World since the Covid pandemic

#37

Post by darrenf » Tue, Jun 04, 2024, 11:07 AM UTC

marcinzm wrote: post #9

auggierose wrote: post #3

[dead]

Looking at that study for Pfizer and Moderna it's a slightly increased risk of myocarditis and shoulder injury at the site of injection. That's it. All other side effects they either didn't have enough evidence for or found that the evidence explicitly rejects a causal relationship.

And better still, the severity of postvaccination myocarditis is much less than post-infection myocarditis.

However, the prognosis for myocarditis after COVID-19 vaccination appears to be much less severe. In a study of nearly 4 million residents of Hong Kong, only one death occurred (1%) among 104 cases of postvaccination myocarditis, compared with 84 deaths (11 percent) among 762 cases of viral infection-related myocarditis (HR 0.08, 95% CI 0.01-0.57). In a surveillance study of cases of myocarditis related to COVID-19 vaccination in the United States reported to VAERS, among 484 hospitalizations there were no deaths, and evidence of ongoing myocarditis at follow-up cardiac MR was uncommon (13 percent)

Re: Excess mortality across the Western World since the Covid pandemic

#38

Post by auggierose » Tue, Jun 04, 2024, 11:07 AM UTC

DyslexicAtheist wrote: post #35

auggierose wrote: post #3

[dead]

thanks for sharing this. I initially wrote your comment off as an anti-vaxx lunatic but after reading the actual paper I decided to vouch for this comment instead after it's been dead.

Oh, I am vaccinated (non-MRNA though). I am just running a social experiment. I am interested in what people think about the document.

Re: Excess mortality across the Western World since the Covid pandemic

#39

Post by Bellamy » Tue, Jun 04, 2024, 11:07 AM UTC

Received: 9 June 2023 Accepted: 20 March 2024 First Published: 3 June 2024

Is it normal that it takes so long to go from Received to Accepted?

Re: Excess mortality across the Western World since the Covid pandemic

#40

Post by myrmidon » Tue, Jun 04, 2024, 11:08 AM UTC

eru wrote: post #17

myrmidon wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a non-US-citizen my understanding of this is limited, but I see very little fact-based criticism and instead personal attacks and calls to "jail him" without even a clear case. That in itself is strongly anti-democratic behavior that I would be extremely hesitant to support even if there was a strong factual foundation to the accusations (which I can't see so far). Which aspect of this report makes you confident t…

> That in itself is strongly anti-democratic behavior [...] Not sure what this has to do with democracy? Seems more like a rule of law issue?

I don't think it should be punishable to call for political opponents to be imprisoned.

But derailing a discussion from factual criticism into emotional populism appears extremely harmful to the concept of democracy itself to me:

In an ideal democracy, candidates would be elected based on how their political alignment and intended actions match up with voters. But if politicians denigrate their competition instead, and paint everyone outside their camp as enemy/traitor/unvotable, then this essentially frees them from having to compete on policy (which leads to incompetent politicians in power that are super hard to get rid of).