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Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

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Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#341

Post by Jlagreen »

throw0101b wrote: post #280
theGnuMe wrote: post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nvidia has been around for along time.

> Nvidia has been around for along time. So has Cisco: how has their stock price been doing since the late 1990s? It's not like the Internet has stopped being a thing, and people are still buying Cisco gear, and yet people aren't excited about it anymore. It's possible for AI/ML to be a thing, for Nvidia to sell gear, and for the stock to go down. There are numerous examples throughout history: * https://en.wikipedia…

And how has Cisco done since the early 1990s? Not so bad, right?

Nobody knows if Nvidia is in the late 1990s or the early 1990s. Based on valuation on P/E they are cheaper than Cisco in late 1990s.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#342

Post by Jlagreen »

latchkey wrote: post #226
floatinglotus wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The number of companies that wish they were a SW company rather than a HW company is very long, and despite all their efforts once they get to a certain size the die is cast.

If you look at all the open "AI" job rec's at AMD right now, they want to be a SW company too.

Yes, but will they pay as well?

Getting good AI talent now is very costly. HW engineers are cheaper.

Nvidia has more SW than HW engineers for a reason and the transformation for that started slowly almost 2 decades ago and accelerated 2012 with AlexNet, the first public showcase of a NN running on GPUs. Jensen saw what that meant and transformed the company from that moment focusing on DeepLearning.

Nvidia isn't waiting for a market to develop but prefers to create markets by tackling hard and complex problems. It seems that Nvidia got lucky with AI but it was a long lasting preparation for Jensen.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#343

Post by Jlagreen »

svnt wrote: post #316
prng2021 wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t that like saying Apple’s iPads will only maintain a moat for a few more years because MS Surface tablets match in hardware and “only” lag in software? My general point is that the core software (and the software ecosystem built around it) is half of the product. NVIDIA isn’t going to stand still either.

B2C and B2B are completely different when it comes to moats. If I can save 20% of my data center costs and cut a price-gouging vendor while bringing the solution in-house at a big tech org I am a hero. Consumers won’t buy a Surface because Microsoft isn’t cool.

You ignore a very important fact which goes above any cost and that is security and stability. A fast unstable or unsafe system belongs into the trash can in any enterprise.

B2C will first ask about security and stability.

Do you think AWS, Azure and GCP are the cheapest cloud offerings? Of course not, but why do they dominate cloud computing in B2C while price gouging everyone?

Because they offer something beyond price and that is security and stability as well as a reliable partner. They also offer support and capacity on a level which a startup CSP will never be able to offer.

This is also the reason why all AI accelerator competitors won't be a competition for Nvidia.

To beat Nvidia it's not only about beating CUDA, it's about beating Nvidia Enterprise AI suite with it's security offerings and support options. But enterprise business level SW is a level where AMD and others will never go to and will have to rely on Big Tech like MS, Amazon and so on to do that for them. But why should they if they have in-house solutions? Big CSPs developing their own AI accelerators shows you that they understand Nvidia's business model and are trying to compete head on because they understand that Nvidia is attacking them at enterprise level with AI enterprise solutions. And of course any enterprise using Nvidia enterprise SW will automatically use Nvidia HW.

Once SW is more spread than HW then it dictates where the direction goes. If MS releases Windows 12 only for ARM then Intel and AMD are immediately screwed and they can't do nothing about that. No enterprise in the world cares if their CAD system runs on x86 or ARM as long as it can be used for the intended use.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#344

Post by Jlagreen »

allenrb wrote: post #48

We all understand that this cannot and will not continue, right? One of two things happens: 1. The AI boom goes bust. Nvidia sales and/or margins crater. The stock craters with it. 2. The AI boom is the real deal. Companies aren’t stupid and won’t keep paying Nvidia these prices forever. Pretty soon hardware and software architectures are standardized enough that anyone who can get onboard with TSMC, Samsung, or Inte…

You mean the same companies who are paying AWS, Azure and GCP a lot of money for decades despite there being cheap alternatives? Or which customers do you talk about?

My company uses Azure for years. I don't expect them to change that anytime soon, I mean we're a SAP customer for 40+ years and SAP is Germany's No. 1 price gouging company. We use MS products for decades as well despite them being more expensive every year and I still do more or less the same in Excel today as I did years ago.

I think you have a misunderstanding of how B2C works and especially when we talk about enterprise level SW solutions. No CEO in their mind is switching business operation SW if a competitor is on sale lol.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#345

Post by Jlagreen »

hi-v-rocknroll wrote: post #194

And they only have ~18 months of absurd profits from just a couple of customers (Meta and Microsoft/OpenAI) who are likely to realize they don't have the revenue to support 10 figure CapEx and will chose to develop their own chips, cutting NVIDIA out of the loop. I foresee Nvidia stock playing out like a softer version of iomega that will still have consumer demand, but not as much temporary demand from the megacorps…

What about the 1000s of companies outside of Big Tech who are interested in AI. Where will they get their AI compute?

I tell you where, from Nvidia direclty or from a CSP renting it to them. Oh wait, aren't MS, Amazon and Google such CSP? Oh right! Could that mean that Nvidia sells GPUs to CSPs which then rent it to customers or rather companies which aren't CSPs? So how do these other companies use Nvidia's GPUs from renting? Let me guess, maybe Nvidia Enterprise AI SW suite? Bingo!

And how does Nvidia benefit from these other companies? Or right, Nvidia gets $4500 license fee per GPU if a company uses Nvidia Enterprise AI solution. Oh wait, does that mean that Nvidia might be into building a SaaS business? Correct, but psst... nobody listens to Nvidia management so only few have a clue. Clearly, Nvidia is earning money only from HW to use it for hobbies like Clara, Isaac, DriveSim, Omniverse and many more... GTC was way more about SW development than HW but that was just show to keep people entertained. Nvidia also is a nice HW company employing more SW engineers than HW engineers so that SW engineers also get a chance for work.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#346

Post by itchyouch »

bdangubic wrote: post #262
floatinglotus wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

THIS. As much as I wish I put all my money into NVDA when I bought it, I’m happy to have a lot of diversity in high tech IT. The daily swings are not nearly as bad and aim not biting my fingers all day long.

THIS is a way to get rich. To get wealthy, you cannot be diversified. No wealthy person is diversified.

Wealthy folks aren't diversified, because they have _control_ (and knowledge) over their particular investment (ie company founders).

Stock investors do not have the luxury of control, thus they must diversify.

And generally that's what the wealthy do. They go all-in on their own company, grow it to incredible returns, then use those returns to be invested in a diversified manner to grow further. Other stocks, realestate, angel investing, etc.

Most of the billionaires are like this. Or if you're Warren Buffet, you invested in a diversified manner, because he didn't control the companies he owned.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#347

Post by digging »

shostack wrote: post #182
AnotherGoodName wrote: post #46

This stock is a great example of invest in stocks where you have strong knowledge. I saw pallets of h100s shipping that were worth 100s of millions each pallet (each card is $40k and you can fit a lot on a pallet) as someone working for a company buying these and knowing that many other companies were doing the same (we have 12+ months of back orders with nvidia alone). I invested last year at ~$250 when redditors we…

I'll do it one better. As a gamer when I was younger, I knew they were the future. I asked for shares for my bday at the time and got them at least at $22.88 a share as that's as far back as my records go.

> I knew they were the future

I think you made a good bet, but it's important to recognize it was a bet. Believing something is true, and then turning out to be correct, isn't the same as knowing something. The future is not knowable - it's only varying degrees of predictable.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#348

Post by latchkey »

mike_hearn wrote: post #332
latchkey wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are moving a lot more quickly now on resolving those issues. It won't happen over night, but the ship is definitely changing course on that.

We've been hearing that line for years, but HN comments are a valuable source of info on where NVDA might go in future. You're the only poster here I could name who is strongly pro-AMD in the AI space. Everyone else seems to put their toes in the water in the hope of being able to get an edge by avoiding NVIDIA's monopoly prices, immediately gets burned by trash software quality and runs away screaming "never again".…

Mike, thanks for the long thoughtful response.

I would never try to defend AMD with regards to them needing to catch up. Even talking with executives at AMD, neither would they. Nobody is trying to pull a fast one on this.

What has changed for certain, is their attitude and attention. I just got back from Dell Tech World. Dell was caught off-guard with this AI thing too. It is obvious the only thing that anyone is talking about now is "ai ai ai ai ai ai".

Give them a bit of time and I think they will start to become competitive over the next few years. It won't happen over night. You won't see README's fixed right away. But one thing that is for certain, they are all at least trying now, instead of pretending it doesn't exist.

Whether they will be successful or not, is yet to be seen. I wouldn't even know how to define successful. I don't think anyone is kidding themselves about Nvidia being dominant. But, I'm personally willing to bet on them selling a lot of hardware and working on their software story.

You might not, and that is fine too.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#349

Post by latchkey »

Jlagreen wrote: post #342
latchkey wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you look at all the open "AI" job rec's at AMD right now, they want to be a SW company too.

Yes, but will they pay as well? Getting good AI talent now is very costly. HW engineers are cheaper. Nvidia has more SW than HW engineers for a reason and the transformation for that started slowly almost 2 decades ago and accelerated 2012 with AlexNet, the first public showcase of a NN running on GPUs. Jensen saw what that meant and transformed the company from that moment focusing on DeepLearning. Nvidia isn't wait…

I agree, it is an uphill battle for AMD.

Tell me though, what Fortune 500 do you know that is willing to put all their eggs in one basket? It is MBA 101 to not do that.

There needs to be alternatives in the space. Why not let them try?

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#350

Post by filoleg »

bdangubic wrote: post #262
floatinglotus wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

THIS. As much as I wish I put all my money into NVDA when I bought it, I’m happy to have a lot of diversity in high tech IT. The daily swings are not nearly as bad and aim not biting my fingers all day long.

THIS is a way to get rich. To get wealthy, you cannot be diversified. No wealthy person is diversified.

> To get wealthy, you cannot get diversified

Sure, but not diversifying is also one of the most efficient ways to go broke. Which is something that diversifying will make much more difficult.

Also, full baloney. I was not diversifying for many years and it indeed made me great money (thanks MSFT). But when I started getting spooked and diversified, guess what?

I still ended up doing pretty well, even if it wasn’t on the same level as before (look up MSFT share price change between the start of 2017 and 2021). But it was so much safer and reliable, going broke wasn’t as much of a concern, and I knew I was much more secure in case of a downturn. Winning on risky triple digit percentage gains feel great, but I would rather take much safer diversified 50-60% gains over a 3 year period instead.

Not saying that those 50-60% gains are even close to what I would expect from truly safe plays. But safety and risk is a spectrum, and you have more choices than just “fully diversified super safe index funds” and “all-in on one single ticker.” You can adjust and make things diversified and safer than all-inning on a single ticker, while still maintaining some amount of risk that would allow for outsized gains.

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