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Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

nvidianews.nvidia.com

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Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#181

Post by AnotherGoodName »

jessriedel wrote: post #95
foota wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The easy answer here would be to look at analyst estimates. If you notice nvidia selling 20 billion in H100s and the consensus revenue is 10 billion, then it's probably not priced in.

How can you just "notice" them selling 20B? How are you getting better data than the analysts?

Well you could just look around like I did back then at orders and even linked documented Twitter posts (from analysts funnily enough) on the massive backlogs. https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/14zhy7f/com...

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#182

Post by shostack »

AnotherGoodName wrote: post #46

This stock is a great example of invest in stocks where you have strong knowledge. I saw pallets of h100s shipping that were worth 100s of millions each pallet (each card is $40k and you can fit a lot on a pallet) as someone working for a company buying these and knowing that many other companies were doing the same (we have 12+ months of back orders with nvidia alone). I invested last year at ~$250 when redditors we…

I'll do it one better. As a gamer when I was younger, I knew they were the future. I asked for shares for my bday at the time and got them at least at $22.88 a share as that's as far back as my records go.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#183

Post by darth_avocado »

kortilla wrote: post #173
digging wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No different from a Walmart cashier observing everyone is checking out Playstation 5 at an alarming rate. Arguably insider trader then > No different from using satellite images of Costco parking lot. Not even similar...

You don’t know what insider trading is. Please stop posting. “A thing I observed at work about another company’s product” is not insider trading.

As usual, the answer is “it depends”. Observing too many people are buying the same product at a supermarket, is not insider trading. Observing product sitting on shelves for far too long, again not insider trading. Hearing your supervisor say that they’re hearing a product will no longer be stocked after the current contract is up, definitely insider trading.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#184

Post by ls612 »

PheonixPharts wrote: post #141
AnotherGoodName wrote: post #46

This stock is a great example of invest in stocks where you have strong knowledge. I saw pallets of h100s shipping that were worth 100s of millions each pallet (each card is $40k and you can fit a lot on a pallet) as someone working for a company buying these and knowing that many other companies were doing the same (we have 12+ months of back orders with nvidia alone). I invested last year at ~$250 when redditors we…

Curious if you've closed out your position yet? The tricky thing about the market is both entering and exiting at the correct time. I have strong knowledge of this is space and don't invest in it exactly for that reason. LLMs are great, but the hype is greater, and I personally don't want to have my income and my investments correlated. NVIDIA may be selling a lot, but their P/E ratio is nearly 80, so that price isn'…

Apple had a net income of ~$100B last year (and will in all likelihood have a similar amount this year) and a market cap of ~$3T. Nvidia is likely to have a net income of around $50-60B this year and has a market cap of around $2.4T.

It doesn't take that much growth being priced in for the stock to suddenly seem reasonably priced.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#185

Post by austhrow743 »

AnotherGoodName wrote: post #46

This stock is a great example of invest in stocks where you have strong knowledge. I saw pallets of h100s shipping that were worth 100s of millions each pallet (each card is $40k and you can fit a lot on a pallet) as someone working for a company buying these and knowing that many other companies were doing the same (we have 12+ months of back orders with nvidia alone). I invested last year at ~$250 when redditors we…

How did you know the $250 price didn't already account for the fact that Nvidia has at least a years worth of back orders to fill?

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#187

Post by isotropy »

kortilla wrote: post #167
elevatedastalt wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds like insider trading to me. The backorders your company has are material non-public information.

Not insider trading from SEC. You can absolutely use material non-public information your own company collects. The entire short selling industry is based on this. It might be a violation of your company’s policy, but unless your company has been given explicit access to material non-public info of nvidia (e.g. you work for their accounting firm), there is no SEC risk here.

NEVER assume that information learned because of your job is shielded from insider trading, even for a completely different company. From ten years ago, here are two data analysts from Capital One who thought they could use the data from credit card transactions to jump the gun on quarterly earnings reports for retail stores. Never traded Capital One stock. Didn't matter - SEC hammered them.

https://www.sec.gov/litigation/litreleases/lr-23216

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#188

Post by rib3ye »

simpsond wrote: post #149
deadbabe wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t get the whole P/E thing. Do people basically say we shouldn’t bother buying anything with a crazy P/E more than 20? Despite the fact that these high P/E companies are now making people lots of money? Wtf?

Some people care about PE. Some people don’t. It’s just one metric that represents past performance. If it’s high, the market believes the stock price will go up.

And to piggyback on this, these people may have between 0 and 100% understand of the core business.

For me personally, it’s a turn off.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#189

Post by almog »

acchow wrote: post #162
almog wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Premature to say what? It's an observation based on past earning reports that preceded earning calls. Even the peak 7% post earnings call (now 5.7% and probably a different number by the time I hit "reply") is a relatively small move compared to past 4 quarters and that's without even taking the stock split + dividend increase into account. Sure, tomorrow it can get to 15% but all I can compare it with right now is t…

Last earnings, it popped up 8% during AH trading. But that was after falling 7% during the week leading up to earnings. This time around, the stock has been up slightly over the past week, and now popping 5.5% during AH trading.

Exactly, which makes it the smallest post earnings price action in the past 4 quarters (last one was also smaller than the 4 that preceded it iirc). And today was the only one that had stock split. It'd have probably been even less than 5.5% if it wasn't for that.

Not saying it's not going to beat the market in years to come but it is slowing.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#190

Post by bobo_legos »

abduhl wrote: post #156
Detrytus wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not GP, but that's exactly what I'm doing. Sold NVIDIA recently at 869 USD (having bought it at 453 USD), and invested profits in Intel :) We'll see how that plays out in a year or two.

$869 sale means you sold between March 2024 and last week. Let’s game this out: 100 shares of NVDA at 453 pared down to just profits from 869 sale would mean holding about 48 shares and selling 52 shares. After today’s after hours movement your invested profit would be worth about $48k, or about $6300 more than when you cashed out your initial investment ($41712). You take that same $41712 and buy INTC between March…

I have a 6 figure profit in NVDA shares right now. Cost basis is something like $100. I have considered selling( or at what price I would sell). The problem I have is what could I possibly buy with that profit? Intel hasn't shown that they have a real plan. The move in META seems to have already happened. I don't trust that Alphabet has any idea what they're doing. I could buy more Microsoft or Amazon shares I guess. I wouldn't throw money at these software stocks like Snowflake or the SNOWs of the world. AAPL might be a play if I have the conviction that Tim Cook has an AI plan in place.

In the end I'd probably just take the easy way out and go buy VTSAX and chill.

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