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Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

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Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#141

Post by PheonixPharts »

AnotherGoodName wrote: post #46

This stock is a great example of invest in stocks where you have strong knowledge. I saw pallets of h100s shipping that were worth 100s of millions each pallet (each card is $40k and you can fit a lot on a pallet) as someone working for a company buying these and knowing that many other companies were doing the same (we have 12+ months of back orders with nvidia alone). I invested last year at ~$250 when redditors we…

Curious if you've closed out your position yet? The tricky thing about the market is both entering and exiting at the correct time.

I have strong knowledge of this is space and don't invest in it exactly for that reason. LLMs are great, but the hype is greater, and I personally don't want to have my income and my investments correlated.

NVIDIA may be selling a lot, but their P/E ratio is nearly 80, so that price isn't fundamentals alone. All we need is this ages equivalent to "perceptrons can't XOR" and there will be a fast correction.

This could go on a long time and I wouldn't be surprised if NVIDIA doubled over the next few years. After all crypto is still doing well despite everyone more or less agreeing it's a scam. I can also imagine world were something is revealed in a few months and everyone flees from "AI".

The only thing I know about the stock market is arbitrage theory still holds, and the future value of any stock tends to be it's current price + risk free rate over time.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#142

Post by digging »

zooq_ai wrote: post #97
georgeburdell wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OP works for a customer of NVDA and made inferences based on shipments they saw coming in. That does not seem like public knowledge

No different from a Walmart cashier observing everyone is checking out Playstation 5 at an alarming rate. No different from using satellite images of Costco parking lot.

> No different from a Walmart cashier observing everyone is checking out Playstation 5 at an alarming rate.

Arguably insider trader then

> No different from using satellite images of Costco parking lot.

Not even similar...

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#143

Post by NoboruWataya »

elevatedastalt wrote: post #126
AnotherGoodName wrote: post #46

This stock is a great example of invest in stocks where you have strong knowledge. I saw pallets of h100s shipping that were worth 100s of millions each pallet (each card is $40k and you can fit a lot on a pallet) as someone working for a company buying these and knowing that many other companies were doing the same (we have 12+ months of back orders with nvidia alone). I invested last year at ~$250 when redditors we…

Sounds like insider trading to me. The backorders your company has are material non-public information.

"My company bought their product" does not sound like material non-public information. It certainly doesn't sound material (and for this reason I also think it was sheer dumb luck that the investment paid off so handsomely, rather than intimate knowledge of the business).

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#144

Post by im3w1l »

georgeburdell wrote: post #86
darth_avocado wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you work for NVIDIA, it is insider trading. If you saw the pallets in a truck at a gas station, it’s not. In the wild, it’s no different from Wall Street making trades based on strip club attendance or by flying drones near Tesla factories.

OP works for a customer of NVDA and made inferences based on shipments they saw coming in. That does not seem like public knowledge

I'm not sure it would be considered material though. It might actually make sense to consult a lawyer.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#145

Post by nabla9 »

TheAlchemist wrote: post #110
nabla9 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because Nvidia can say no and nobody else (except Apple) is willing to pay more for the latest node.

Can really Nvidia say no ? They are making 78% of margin on those chips - I would think that that leaves a lot of bargaining power to TSMC. They would loose much less than Nvidia.

You can't do shakedowns for your second best customer. Nvidia works also with Samsung for new 3nm nodes.

Prices are defined by the profit margins of Nvidia's closest competitor (AMD 4.89%.)

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#146

Post by nabla9 »

acchow wrote: post #114
nabla9 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because Nvidia can say no and nobody else (except Apple) is willing to pay more for the latest node.

Nvidia can only say no if they have another shop to turn to. Do they?

They have. Samsung is competing for Nvidia orders with their 3nm node.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#147

Post by AlexandrB »

parineum wrote: post #136
PaulKeeble wrote: post #89

This likely has more staying power than the crypto boom that fueled AMD's GPUs to enormous heights but when that crashed AMD ended up holding a lot of stock it couldn't shift and had an enormous right down of inventory. This AI bubble could be burst by a better cheaper product more dedicated to the task or a realisation that the issues with AI just can't be solved and a cooling off of the market hype. What I fear is…

AI is still fueled by hope. The actually applications of it (they do exist and they are valuable) pale in comparison and value to what it's valuation is based on, it's future promise. When the people who say things like "AI is going to replace all accountants!" stop speaking the the future tense, it's value will be justified. For now, it's OpenAI spending billions developing a product they hope will make trillions an…

In many cases there's no obvious way to collect additional revenue for AI features either. For example, Google now has an AI box in their search but will this translate to more ad revenue?

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#148

Post by eastbound »

mysore wrote: post #115
AnotherGoodName wrote: post #46

This stock is a great example of invest in stocks where you have strong knowledge. I saw pallets of h100s shipping that were worth 100s of millions each pallet (each card is $40k and you can fit a lot on a pallet) as someone working for a company buying these and knowing that many other companies were doing the same (we have 12+ months of back orders with nvidia alone). I invested last year at ~$250 when redditors we…

redditors are fucking funny man. i lost 50% on palantir cause i listened to wall street bets lmao

By definition, by the time someone has time to phrase it and broadcast it on a public forum, it’s already priced in.

And corollary, if just a thousand dollars can be made from influencing people on Reddit, then thinking how many people you can pay to create fake interest on Reddit. Now do the calculation for $10k and $100k.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#149

Post by simpsond »

deadbabe wrote: post #124
UncleMeat wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, my uncle lost a fortune investing in a wireless networking company in the 00s. He has worked an entire career in networking and has contributed to bleeding edge systems in the area. This company had excellent tech, but ultimately didn't succeed. A lifetime of savings kaput. nvidia's p/e is also insanely high. "Wow they sure sell a shitload of product" isn't necessarily enough to justify the price.…

I don’t get the whole P/E thing. Do people basically say we shouldn’t bother buying anything with a crazy P/E more than 20? Despite the fact that these high P/E companies are now making people lots of money? Wtf?

Some people care about PE. Some people don’t. It’s just one metric that represents past performance. If it’s high, the market believes the stock price will go up.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#150

Post by bordercases »

it_citizen wrote: post #80
ipsento606 wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know nothing about stocks. But if a similar situation were to happen again, how can you tell whether or not the surge in demand is already "priced in"? Simply knowing that demand for a product has increased - even increased massively - surely can't tell you that the stock of the company that makes that product is going to increase in value, without also knowing whether or not that increase in demand is already refl…

Exactly. And for one thing you know, there are 100s you don't know about the company. Luck and survivor bias.

But is the luck biased to have more survivors in one direction over the other?
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