281–290 of 367 posts
We all understand that this cannot and will not continue, right? One of two things happens: 1. The AI boom goes bust. Nvidia sales and/or margins crater. The stock craters with it. 2. The AI boom is the real deal. Companies aren’t stupid and won’t keep paying Nvidia these prices forever. Pretty soon hardware and software architectures are standardized enough that anyone who can get onboard with TSMC, Samsung, or Inte…
This stock is a great example of invest in stocks where you have strong knowledge. I saw pallets of h100s shipping that were worth 100s of millions each pallet (each card is $40k and you can fit a lot on a pallet) as someone working for a company buying these and knowing that many other companies were doing the same (we have 12+ months of back orders with nvidia alone). I invested last year at ~$250 when redditors we…
The market is too fickle to rely on your own experience and knowledge. Remember, there's plenty of experts in the tech industry whose sole job is to trade tech stocks, this information is baked into the market. It's far more likely that you were lucky, rather than had some super special inside knowledge compared to others. The only (semi)reliable stock is an index.
Everyone only has a fraction of all the information. And you have to be satisfied with big returns in which you wonder, "how much of that was luck?" And, the occasional big losers. I can say I don't have 'the formula', but I'm returning 15% for over 20 years... knowing there is a ton I don't know. Which is something you find out when you are a patent attorney, and innovations come out of nowhere while MOST 'innovations' also lead nowhere.
Just. Have to be. OK. With. Not knowing.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is false, you are breaking your duty of confidentiality towards your employer. Read the numerous Matt Levine columns about this. I don't know that the specific information collected in this qualifies as material information but it seems like it might.
No, it has to be explicitly outlined in the employee agreement if you’re not allowed to share some of the information. “Duty of confidentiality” is not a magic thing that just exists. All of the cases where people have been busted (e.g. the capital one credit card transactions) are because the SEC has an exact quote from the employee agreement that says something like “don’t use this mega database to do trading”. If…
This stock is a great example of invest in stocks where you have strong knowledge. I saw pallets of h100s shipping that were worth 100s of millions each pallet (each card is $40k and you can fit a lot on a pallet) as someone working for a company buying these and knowing that many other companies were doing the same (we have 12+ months of back orders with nvidia alone). I invested last year at ~$250 when redditors we…
Total crap. Doesn't pass the smell test when 99% of people say this. Would you buy a lemon for 2.336T? No? Probably not. What do you specifically value Nvidia at? Not the share price. Your own calculation. You, AnotherGoodName, are going to buy Nvidia outright. You're basically Elon Musk, and you think you can create better AI chips. You don't know what that number is? Then you don't intimately know the value of the…
Unless he's an insider. (Which he admitted)
> Knowing tech intimately means nothing.
Exactly. Everyone's an expert in a bull market or when the stock runs without a down turn.
HN is an indicator to be bearish when euphoric posts like this are around. We'll start to see the short term dumping of $NVDA when we hit higher prices and the increased geo-political risk with China and Taiwan or a surprise declaration of war.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The number of companies that wish they were a SW company rather than a HW company is very long, and despite all their efforts once they get to a certain size the die is cast.
This. Going to GTC and seeing Jensen present demos at the keynote they were coding the night before was... interesting. Either you're the type of company that does that, or you aren't.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
A company with a high P/E is by definition not making much money for its shareholders, relative to the size of their investment. Unless you mean that the share price may appreciate. That's absolutely a thing, but it's a dangerous game. Of course plenty of people have made fortunes this way; people have also lost fortunes; I think the advice to steer away from such companies is basically a statement about risk.
> Unless you mean that the share price may appreciate. this has already happened because the P/E is high! Betting that it will continue to grow in price (aka, reach an even higher P/E) is risky.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
You need to “get it” because it’s really important. We’re all in here arguing about PE ratios of tech companies reaching 100x. Is that too much? Who knows. For the best tech company in the world? What is the limit? But for other companies like Tesla, their PE was once 1000x. That’s crazy town. PE is the first number you should use for comparing two stocks to determine value vs risk.
Ok, but didn’t all FANG companies have insane P/Es at some point? Are you saying they were bad investments?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Nvidia has been around for along time.
> Nvidia has been around for along time. So has Cisco: how has their stock price been doing since the late 1990s? It's not like the Internet has stopped being a thing, and people are still buying Cisco gear, and yet people aren't excited about it anymore. It's possible for AI/ML to be a thing, for Nvidia to sell gear, and for the stock to go down. There are numerous examples throughout history: * https://en.wikipedia…