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Bloomberg consensus data expectations YoY were: 400% earnings growth and 242% revenue growth. The reality was 461% earnings growth (629% GAAP) 262% revenue growth. 78.9% gross margin. Nvidia did it again.
How do they keep doing this
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True. But another piece of knowledge about Nvidia is its competitors are waaaaaaaaay behind. They stand peerless. Another piece of information is that CUDA software was provide free or cheaply to Universities doing LLM research I think. And the software is easy to use.
> its competitors are waaaaaaaaay behind. They stand peerless. Its competitors are only way behind when it comes to software support. The hardware coming out of Intel and amd is, especially for its price, very capable. Given how much money is being invested in AI right now, I don’t see Nvidia’s moat lasting more than a few more years.
First off, it’s a HW/SW solution and things like CUDA/NCCL/etc make a HUGE difference.
Second, the token/watt ratio of every other option is nearly an order of magnitude difference in real world tests. When you add in custom silicon like moronic Grok/Dojo and you see that there aren’t really any close competitors when using custom spins. That is money down the drain IMO. Best bet for most enterprises is to buy 25% AMD and 75% H100 if they can get it.
I think Blackwell is potentially a long term generational problem due to power limitations in most data centers for now.
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> its competitors are waaaaaaaaay behind. They stand peerless. Its competitors are only way behind when it comes to software support. The hardware coming out of Intel and amd is, especially for its price, very capable. Given how much money is being invested in AI right now, I don’t see Nvidia’s moat lasting more than a few more years.
Hardware has never been AMD's problem. Their chips are great, on paper. But their software has always been a few generations behind.
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Hardware has never been AMD's problem. Their chips are great, on paper. But their software has always been a few generations behind.
They are moving a lot more quickly now on resolving those issues. It won't happen over night, but the ship is definitely changing course on that.
What’s baffling about all this is both AMD and Intel have competing offerings and those offerings see next to no traction in spite of being much more attractive from the cost standpoint. I understand why they aren’t taking off on the training side: fragmentation is very counterproductive there. But why not deploy them in large quantities for inference at least? The effort of porting transformer based models is trivia…
AMD's only offering that matters, MI300x, is literally a couple months old. Give it time.
We all understand that this cannot and will not continue, right? One of two things happens: 1. The AI boom goes bust. Nvidia sales and/or margins crater. The stock craters with it. 2. The AI boom is the real deal. Companies aren’t stupid and won’t keep paying Nvidia these prices forever. Pretty soon hardware and software architectures are standardized enough that anyone who can get onboard with TSMC, Samsung, or Inte…
This stock is a great example of invest in stocks where you have strong knowledge. I saw pallets of h100s shipping that were worth 100s of millions each pallet (each card is $40k and you can fit a lot on a pallet) as someone working for a company buying these and knowing that many other companies were doing the same (we have 12+ months of back orders with nvidia alone). I invested last year at ~$250 when redditors we…
On the other hand, my uncle lost a fortune investing in a wireless networking company in the 00s. He has worked an entire career in networking and has contributed to bleeding edge systems in the area. This company had excellent tech, but ultimately didn't succeed. A lifetime of savings kaput. nvidia's p/e is also insanely high. "Wow they sure sell a shitload of product" isn't necessarily enough to justify the price.…
This happened with a local sports drink maker. It was branded for kids, more healthy, less sugar then Gatorade and energy drinks. Company took off, went public, stock went through the roof for about two years.
Blue skies, everything coming up roses, lots of articles in the local business mags and websites.
Then their supply chain dried up - a precursor to the pandemic and the founder even said in a startup presentation they were the canary in the coal mine and one of the first businesses in the state to suddenly have their product, packaging, and materials all just evaporate in a matter of weeks. Suddenly they couldn't get product into stores, stores eventually pulled their placement and within three months they were bleeding money horrendously while scrambling to find replacements. Something they were already working on, but soon enough every supplier they'd call had the same answer, they too had no means to ship stuff out and they too were dead in the water.
Then two months later the pandemic hit in full force and it was the death knell for the company. Delisted, and bankrupted, they closed up shop about 3 years after being a "can't lose" stock and company.
My family have all invested heavily in Nvidia and they're making good gains now, but I'm seeing the same thing you are - this can go bust very fast if Nvidia doesn't manage this really well.
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On the other hand, my uncle lost a fortune investing in a wireless networking company in the 00s. He has worked an entire career in networking and has contributed to bleeding edge systems in the area. This company had excellent tech, but ultimately didn't succeed. A lifetime of savings kaput. nvidia's p/e is also insanely high. "Wow they sure sell a shitload of product" isn't necessarily enough to justify the price.…
I don’t get the whole P/E thing. Do people basically say we shouldn’t bother buying anything with a crazy P/E more than 20? Despite the fact that these high P/E companies are now making people lots of money? Wtf?
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On the other hand, my uncle lost a fortune investing in a wireless networking company in the 00s. He has worked an entire career in networking and has contributed to bleeding edge systems in the area. This company had excellent tech, but ultimately didn't succeed. A lifetime of savings kaput. nvidia's p/e is also insanely high. "Wow they sure sell a shitload of product" isn't necessarily enough to justify the price.…
I don’t get the whole P/E thing. Do people basically say we shouldn’t bother buying anything with a crazy P/E more than 20? Despite the fact that these high P/E companies are now making people lots of money? Wtf?
We’re all in here arguing about PE ratios of tech companies reaching 100x. Is that too much? Who knows. For the best tech company in the world? What is the limit?
But for other companies like Tesla, their PE was once 1000x. That’s crazy town.
PE is the first number you should use for comparing two stocks to determine value vs risk.
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Intel could get lucky like Nvidia if Intel doesn't buy back stock and instead spends money on R&D. edit: "Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger raised a few eyebrows by attributing Nvidia's current dominance of the AI market to luck" - https://www.extremetech.com/computing/nvidia-engineer-respon... .
Not convinced Intel can turn this around. Both on server and consumer side they've been losing share to AMD for like 7 years straight...cross generations, cross platform...just everywhere with amazing consistency. And if half of the AMD roadmaps/rumours are true then the next couple years will be worse. ...so yeah some casual R&D isn't gonna cut it...they need to pull a rabbit out of a hat urgently.