Earlier quoted context omitted.
You quite literally can; a $1000 strike call contract on NVDA 2-DTE is $1140 strike is (before markets closed today obviously)
Man.. this forum is something else
It quite literally is not something else
Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025
101–110 of 367 posts
Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025
#102Earlier quoted context omitted.
The million dollar question (or trillion dollar question I suppose) is for the upcoming quarters - will there be pallets of h100s waiting shipment, 2x pallets of h100s or 10x pallets of h100s... or have all the pallets are shipped for the time being. Has demand saturated while downstream AI engineers tinker on actually profitable use cases or is it going to keep growing exponentially. Probably most stock price models…
The answer is we are in the Pentium II 33 MHz stage of AI chips. So, plan accordingly into what the future demand may look like.
The pentium II was 233 MHz, not 33, but sure. The problem is, if that metaphor holds, we're so vastly far away from "the future" that it's impossible to predict what it looks like. Just for example, NVIDIA's chips kinda suck for inference. Vastly overprovisioned.
It's like the folks who were saying "the internet is growing rapidly, Cisco powers the internet, therefore Cisco will grow as rapidly as the internet" in the late 90s. Oops.
Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025
#103Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you work for NVIDIA, it is insider trading. If you saw the pallets in a truck at a gas station, it’s not. In the wild, it’s no different from Wall Street making trades based on strip club attendance or by flying drones near Tesla factories.
> If you work for NVIDIA, it is insider trading. Just to be absolutely clear, it can be insider trading if you don't work at NVIDIA.
Yeah, it's not about being an employee, it's about trading on Material Non-Public Information.
Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025
#104We all understand that this cannot and will not continue, right? One of two things happens: 1. The AI boom goes bust. Nvidia sales and/or margins crater. The stock craters with it. 2. The AI boom is the real deal. Companies aren’t stupid and won’t keep paying Nvidia these prices forever. Pretty soon hardware and software architectures are standardized enough that anyone who can get onboard with TSMC, Samsung, or Inte…
The hard question is "when". I agree with you, yet I'd rather be long NVDA than short NVDA. (I am neither).
Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025
#105Earlier quoted context omitted.
The easy answer here would be to look at analyst estimates. If you notice nvidia selling 20 billion in H100s and the consensus revenue is 10 billion, then it's probably not priced in.
How can you just "notice" them selling 20B? How are you getting better data than the analysts?
try to talk to them and see how hard it is to get a gpu
Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025
#106Earlier quoted context omitted.
OP works for a customer of NVDA and made inferences based on shipments they saw coming in. That does not seem like public knowledge
It CAN be considered insider trading then. If you work for company A and are aware of a large monetary deal between company A & company B that is otherwise not known to the public, if you trade company B’s stock, not only can it be considered insider trading, it may even violate company A’s internal policies which can get you fired.
It's still illegal even if you don't work for company A or B.
Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025
#107We all understand that this cannot and will not continue, right? One of two things happens: 1. The AI boom goes bust. Nvidia sales and/or margins crater. The stock craters with it. 2. The AI boom is the real deal. Companies aren’t stupid and won’t keep paying Nvidia these prices forever. Pretty soon hardware and software architectures are standardized enough that anyone who can get onboard with TSMC, Samsung, or Inte…
A significant question is what "pretty soon" means. Nvidia also owns other parts of the stack (cuda) that makes them more difficult to replace.
Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025
#108This stock is a great example of invest in stocks where you have strong knowledge. I saw pallets of h100s shipping that were worth 100s of millions each pallet (each card is $40k and you can fit a lot on a pallet) as someone working for a company buying these and knowing that many other companies were doing the same (we have 12+ months of back orders with nvidia alone). I invested last year at ~$250 when redditors we…
Last year, I said my cousin who owns a Tesla car aandnd stocks believes Tesla has great potential that Elon Musk is a fraud and it's over valued.
Turns out who never owned a car and never invested in any stocks got it right.
TBH no one can predict the market.
Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025
#109This stock is a great example of invest in stocks where you have strong knowledge. I saw pallets of h100s shipping that were worth 100s of millions each pallet (each card is $40k and you can fit a lot on a pallet) as someone working for a company buying these and knowing that many other companies were doing the same (we have 12+ months of back orders with nvidia alone). I invested last year at ~$250 when redditors we…
Seeing pallets shipped out the door seems like a far cry from knowing something intimately. To know the business intimately would likely take knowledge of not only the AI industry but also understanding what customers are using these machines for, are the sales sustainable, etc...
Your anecdote is just survivorship bias and you are one of the survivors.
Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025
#110Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why it's not happening ? For the first quarters after AI exploded, I thought it was just that contracts were already signed, but what's stopping them now ?
Because Nvidia can say no and nobody else (except Apple) is willing to pay more for the latest node.
Can really Nvidia say no ?
They are making 78% of margin on those chips - I would think that that leaves a lot of bargaining power to TSMC. They would loose much less than Nvidia.