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Sam and Greg's response to OpenAI Safety researcher claims

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Re: Sam and Greg's response to OpenAI Safety researcher claims

#41

Post by [deleted] »

bookaway wrote: post #37
skepticATX wrote: post #2

Interesting that OpenAI has completely destroyed their reputation over the last year. For me, they've gone from an admirable company to cringe-worthy. I really think that the best outcome here is for OpenAI to collapse and get absorbed by Microsoft, where adults can continue some of the good work that is being overshadowed by ego and cult-like vibes.

I find this kind of hilarious because I had just been commenting that, "at the moment all the engineers at OpenAI, including gdb, who currently have their credibility in tact are nerd-washing Altman's tarnished reputation by staying there." And lo and behold, Altman chooses gdb's twitter account to make the first joint statement instead of his own, creepily signing off "Sam and Greg" instead of "Greg and Sam" on gdb'…

[deleted]

Re: Sam and Greg's response to OpenAI Safety researcher claims

#42

Post by mindcrash »

skepticATX wrote: post #2

Interesting that OpenAI has completely destroyed their reputation over the last year. For me, they've gone from an admirable company to cringe-worthy. I really think that the best outcome here is for OpenAI to collapse and get absorbed by Microsoft, where adults can continue some of the good work that is being overshadowed by ego and cult-like vibes.

If I remember correctly those "adults" offered Altman the opportunity to lead the AI efforts at Microsoft after he got fired.

Make of that what you want.

Re: Sam and Greg's response to OpenAI Safety researcher claims

#44

Post by cqqxo4zV46cp »

qp11 wrote: post #28
AndrewKemendo wrote: post #3

Seems like we need people to start posting mirrors of X content, the same way we post archive links for Washington Post and other firewalled articles

You are not missing a single useful thing when a corporate robot speaks. Its like hoping mindless parasites start making music. Besides all messaging is directed not at the plebs, but at the elite (those who own everything) signalling a simple thing - don't worry - what ever flares up we are on top of things - we will firefight to death for you, so you just have to sit back on your fat ass and watch your net worth mu…

You’re literally in the comments for one of these statements though. Did you just come here aim an outsized lecture at whoever was unlucky enough to appear on your screen first? Either OP has a point, or you’re just saying that you parachuted here to say your piece without looking beyond the submission title. In either case, behaviour that makes HN worse.

Re: Sam and Greg's response to OpenAI Safety researcher claims

#45

Post by MVissers »

camillomiller wrote: post #13

Why do we give this people credit by giving for granted that AGI is somehow magically around the corner? It is not, and everyone’s delusional.

If you look at compute scaling and model improvement on that compute, we’re going to get there pretty fast.

Both compute, architecture and cost matter, and those have been improving like crazy.

I don’t know about you, but I didn’t expect GPT-4o to come out at half the price one year later, with real-time voice, image and text.

There is zero sign of slowing, Nvidia keeps building beefier GPUs specialized in LLMs, the world keeps adding more data centers and humanity keeps creating exponentially more data world wide.

You can plot this exponential growth out over time and calculate when these models will have the complexity of the brain. Then you can assume some penalty for shitty architecture (that gets better over time), and you’ll have a ballpark estimate.

Somewhere 2027-2030 we’ll have models that most of us consider AGI today. Now, societal impact is hard to predict since that’ll depend on regulators as well.

Re: Sam and Greg's response to OpenAI Safety researcher claims

#47

Post by Dylan16807 »

aik wrote: post #33
danjl wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In that vein, I'd say that most of the LLM research was done at Google. OpenAI productized faster.

Confused here, is your argument here that OpenAI is not responsible for any innovation when it comes to LLM tech today? I’m curious about why you so strongly want to believe that? Nobody knew that scaling transformer architecture would lead to the emergent intelligence we see today. Among other things, OpenAI did R&D for years on that. Also the only situation where this could true is if Google knew that LLMs could le…

> not responsible for any

That's a very strange way to read (the inverse of) the word "most".

Re: Sam and Greg's response to OpenAI Safety researcher claims

#48

Post by Aloisius »

MVissers wrote: post #45
camillomiller wrote: post #13

Why do we give this people credit by giving for granted that AGI is somehow magically around the corner? It is not, and everyone’s delusional.

If you look at compute scaling and model improvement on that compute, we’re going to get there pretty fast. Both compute, architecture and cost matter, and those have been improving like crazy. I don’t know about you, but I didn’t expect GPT-4o to come out at half the price one year later, with real-time voice, image and text. There is zero sign of slowing, Nvidia keeps building beefier GPUs specialized in LLMs, the…

LLMs don't reason. Without reasoning, you don't have AGI.

I can't wait until we're past the peak on the hype cycle because people's understanding of what these models can and can't do or how close we are to AGI isn't grounded in reality.

Re: Sam and Greg's response to OpenAI Safety researcher claims

#49

Post by bambax »

camillomiller wrote: post #13

Why do we give this people credit by giving for granted that AGI is somehow magically around the corner? It is not, and everyone’s delusional.

Yes! It's debatable current models demonstrate any kind of "intelligence", but AGI is so far off it's ridiculous to even mention it. But not everyone's delusional. Here's what Yann Le Cun is currently saying:

> It seems to me that before "urgently figuring out how to control AI systems much smarter than us" we need to have the beginning of a hint of a design for a system smarter than a house cat.

and

> don't confuse the superhuman knowledge accumulation and retrieval abilities of current LLMs with actual intelligence

https://x.com/ylecun/status/1791890883425570823

Re: Sam and Greg's response to OpenAI Safety researcher claims

#50

Post by sroussey »

behnamoh wrote: post #8

Any one noticed how Sam sometimes intentionally tries to attack his own work? For example, he has said GPT-2 was very bad, GPT-3 was bad, and GPT-4 is okay. He also fed the AI doomers by talking about AGI dangers and how the world needs to watch out for a future AI catastrophe. He just gives off the vibe of someone trying to act humble but I don't know how much of it is just an act and how much is real. I've never se…

Bill Gates the day of any OS release.

He was good at always saying the current version selling is the best, never a future version.

And for windows 3 and windows 95, he definitely called the old versions trash.

In comparison, they were.

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