Show HN: I built a website to create financial models for any stock online

Post by davedx » Sat, May 18, 2024, 2:55 PM UTC

fakedang wrote: post #120

laborcontract wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any way do regional and or segment breakouts? The way I see your tool, it's a great tool for the back of the napkin-ers but as it is right now, it doesn't obviate modeling because you're still going to have to do the breakouts in excel. Also, I think it'd be great to set your defaults assumptions for a stock to breakeven pricing, and allow users to adjust from there. I see a tool like this being useful, but I think p…

You'd be surprised to learn then that most PE deals run on the back of literal pen and napkin models. In our process at my former firm, one of the largest megafunds out there, we would scout and model new opportunities using elaborate models, report them to the MDs who would then literally whip out a notepad or a napkin mid-presentation to decide whether the investment had potential. If it was in the grey zone, it wa…

Post by davedx » Sat, May 18, 2024, 3:02 PM UTC

jstanley wrote: post #42

Very nice, coincidentally I have been thinking about making a similar tool lately, but I'd make it quite a bit more conservative. I'd want to be able to define a model like "I think the fair value of a company is its net current assets plus its last 5 years of earnings", and have the tool email me whenever I can buy shares in any company substantially below that price, or sell them substantially above. It wouldn't be…

Post by pvg » Sat, May 18, 2024, 3:18 PM UTC

plaidfuji wrote: post #100

I’m consistently surprised at the lack of basic financial literacy in the HN crowd. The title says this is a tool to create financial models , not that it is a well-tuned financial model. Yeah, you have to make better assumptions than straight-line extrapolation from last year’s trend to arrive at reasonable valuations. The point is that this shows you what assumptions you have to make to arrive at a rationally-calcu…

Post by nescioquid » Sat, May 18, 2024, 3:34 PM UTC

jb1991 wrote: post #117

nescioquid wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This caught out the current Show HN poster, so I imagine the comment could be useful to future Show HN posters. Besides, the comment wasn't unkind to the present poster and is actually kind to future posters, so the admonishment and down-votes seem unwarranted.

My tip is to re-evaluate why you think you are getting downvoted to better understand your tone and wording rather than assume the downvotes are not warranted.

Post by fakedang » Sat, May 18, 2024, 4:21 PM UTC

davedx wrote: post #131

fakedang wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'd be surprised to learn then that most PE deals run on the back of literal pen and napkin models. In our process at my former firm, one of the largest megafunds out there, we would scout and model new opportunities using elaborate models, report them to the MDs who would then literally whip out a notepad or a napkin mid-presentation to decide whether the investment had potential. If it was in the grey zone, it wa…

That doesn't surprise me at all, I've heard it's the same in private credit. I think a lot of the initial ground work that's done in due diligence and modelling is more to flush out any red flags than to inform the investment decision itself, and a model is only as good as its assumptions anyway...