mind adding a blog post on how this was built? what technologies were used, what does the stack look like etc?
Show HN: I built a website to create financial models for any stock online
111–120 of 166 posts
Re: Show HN: I built a website to create financial models for any stock online
#112I’m consistently surprised at the lack of basic financial literacy in the HN crowd. The title says this is a tool to create financial models , not that it is a well-tuned financial model. Yeah, you have to make better assumptions than straight-line extrapolation from last year’s trend to arrive at reasonable valuations. The point is that this shows you what assumptions you have to make to arrive at a rationally-calcu…
Thank you! You captured it perfectly. Shoot me and email at support@useequityval.com and I will set you up with a pro for free!
Any way do regional and or segment breakouts? The way I see your tool, it's a great tool for the back of the napkin-ers but as it is right now, it doesn't obviate modeling because you're still going to have to do the breakouts in excel.
Also, I think it'd be great to set your defaults assumptions for a stock to breakeven pricing, and allow users to adjust from there.
I see a tool like this being useful, but I think positioning it as a deep valuation tool is much less useful in the mindsphere of investors as an elite pen and napkin, which I think people would use.
Re: Show HN: I built a website to create financial models for any stock online
#113Very nice, coincidentally I have been thinking about making a similar tool lately, but I'd make it quite a bit more conservative. I'd want to be able to define a model like "I think the fair value of a company is its net current assets plus its last 5 years of earnings", and have the tool email me whenever I can buy shares in any company substantially below that price, or sell them substantially above. It wouldn't be…
Hi the data is from https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/developer/docs
> Attribution is required for all users. It is as simple as putting “Data provided by Financial Modeling Prep” somewhere on your site or app and linking that text to https://financialmodelingprep.com/developer/docs/.
I don't see attribution on useequityval.com?
Re: Show HN: I built a website to create financial models for any stock online
#114seems like apple is a sell
Re: Show HN: I built a website to create financial models for any stock online
#115Im skeptical whether these types of models can help you make better investment decisions. The fate of a company usually hinges on some fundamental question. For Apple it is whether they can stay a prominent platform that can capture a significant portion of the value created on it. For Tesla it is how fast their self driving tech will evolve. For Google it is whether AI will make search obsolete or more valuable.
Your examples are actually edge cases that DCF was never designed to handle.
There are lots of investments that are way more boring than Apple, Tesla, and Google, and that should be analyzed with DCF.
DCF is more for slow and steadily growing companies that might be undervalued for just a moment because of factors outside of the company's control.
Tech companies can be harder to value via DCF, because as you say, there are monumental factors that outweigh historical cash flow trends.
This is part of why Warren Buffet historically avoided tech. It is wildly unpredictable from a pure historical cash flow numbers standpoint.
DCF is not a crystal ball.
The types of questions you're talking about aren't well analyzed by DCF.
But something like the fair value of Walmart can absolutely be determined via DCF.
Re: Show HN: I built a website to create financial models for any stock online
#116If this worked you wouldn't be selling access, especially not for a one-time fee of $10. You'd be making millions. You could probably get away with charging a subscription fee.
These statements are hilarious.
You're assuming that every human on earth is extremely selfish.
If what you say is true, there would be no teachers in the world. Because most teachers make less than the students they teach.
There are unselfish people out there.
Re: Show HN: I built a website to create financial models for any stock online
#117Earlier quoted context omitted.
No need to rain on their parade. As if they are not already now aware of this.
This caught out the current Show HN poster, so I imagine the comment could be useful to future Show HN posters. Besides, the comment wasn't unkind to the present poster and is actually kind to future posters, so the admonishment and down-votes seem unwarranted.
My tip is to re-evaluate why you think you are getting downvoted to better understand your tone and wording rather than assume the downvotes are not warranted.
Re: Show HN: I built a website to create financial models for any stock online
#118Im skeptical whether these types of models can help you make better investment decisions. The fate of a company usually hinges on some fundamental question. For Apple it is whether they can stay a prominent platform that can capture a significant portion of the value created on it. For Tesla it is how fast their self driving tech will evolve. For Google it is whether AI will make search obsolete or more valuable.
Your examples are actually edge cases that DCF was never designed to handle. There are lots of investments that are way more boring than Apple, Tesla, and Google, and that should be analyzed with DCF. DCF is more for slow and steadily growing companies that might be undervalued for just a moment because of factors outside of the company's control. Tech companies can be harder to value via DCF, because as you say, the…
Let's say you sit down and make a DCF for every company in the S&P 500. Now sort them by how much their current price differs from what you call "fair value".
You expect that investing in all of the companies in the upper half of the list will result in a better long-term return than investing in the lower half of the list?
Re: Show HN: I built a website to create financial models for any stock online
#119I’m consistently surprised at the lack of basic financial literacy in the HN crowd. The title says this is a tool to create financial models , not that it is a well-tuned financial model. Yeah, you have to make better assumptions than straight-line extrapolation from last year’s trend to arrive at reasonable valuations. The point is that this shows you what assumptions you have to make to arrive at a rationally-calcu…
>The models that make the big bucks are the ones that ingest a ton of other external data to predict the numbers that go in the data entry cells here. And yeah, those don’t get posted online for free.
Do such models even exist? As far as I know NN are only good at function approximation. Why do we think that the market evolves according to a mathematical function? To me, financial markets seem chaotic in nature.
Re: Show HN: I built a website to create financial models for any stock online
#120Earlier quoted context omitted.
Thank you! You captured it perfectly. Shoot me and email at support@useequityval.com and I will set you up with a pro for free!
Any way do regional and or segment breakouts? The way I see your tool, it's a great tool for the back of the napkin-ers but as it is right now, it doesn't obviate modeling because you're still going to have to do the breakouts in excel. Also, I think it'd be great to set your defaults assumptions for a stock to breakeven pricing, and allow users to adjust from there. I see a tool like this being useful, but I think p…
You'd be surprised to learn then that most PE deals run on the back of literal pen and napkin models. In our process at my former firm, one of the largest megafunds out there, we would scout and model new opportunities using elaborate models, report them to the MDs who would then literally whip out a notepad or a napkin mid-presentation to decide whether the investment had potential. If it was in the grey zone, it was on us to demonstrate that it had merit, using more complicated modelling and analysis.