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Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

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Re: Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

#31
post #14

Morgan Stanley has been putting in floors to keep this stock from totally crashing. They cannot keep it up forever.

Do you have proof? I know that on opening Friday we saw it sit at $38.00 and that was obviously MS, but since then I don't see any evidence in the stock price that this has happened since. On the 23rd the stock traded at 31.53 a few times but later in the day traded at 31.52.

I'd love to see MS take a beating for that 100m they got for underwriting this poorly orchestrated IPO, I just haven't been able to see it happening unless there is proof I am unaware of.

Re: Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

#32
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The early investors made out like kings, but I doubt Facebook's employees are in a cheery mood as they watch their options sink underwater and their vested paper wealth dissipate while waiting for the lockup period to end.

I'd like for someone to explain precisely what Facebook should have done to ensure a big pop. Value the shares at $5? What if their internal projections indicated the company was worth more than that? Picking an artificially low strike price for the options probably would have resulted in people going to jail, not to mention all the employees owing taxes on the difference.

From what I've seen, it was hugely overvalued. Maybe $25-$50 billion, with a share price of $28-$32.

Last minute change to $38+ was suicide.

Re: Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

#33
post #4

FB IPO is bad for the startup world

Not necessarily.

If FB valuations keep slipping, it will put downward pressure on all social startup valuations, which means those companies have less money to throw around.

This is great new for non-social startups. It could mean everything from cheaper rent for office space in SF to a larger pool of available talent to recruit from.

Re: Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

#34
post #11
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am assuming they have to wait 6 months, by then FB will not be worth much compared to their strike price.

3 months - http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2012/05/24/facebook-lock-up-expi...

At this rate these 3 months will feel very long and they will be pretty much "a worry" for those affected.

Re: Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

#37
post #4

FB IPO is bad for the startup world

FB's IPO is based on imaginary numbers. 900 million users? How many actual users. Seems to me that the suits REALLY wanted to make this a $100B company regardless of how much worth it actually had.

There's only so much you can glean out of a social network where the vast majority of the time people are talking about how their day went. I think that some people fundamentally misunderstand the difference between Facebook and Google when it comes to figuring out what ads people want to see.

Let's say I'm on Facebook and I ask my friends for advice on which is the best lead pencil to purchase. They might tell me a few recommendations, and Facebook may even start producing ads based upon that conversation should I choose to revisit it.

But then I want to actually PURCHASE the lead pencil. Where am I going to go to look for that? Google. It will give me price recommendations, and once I've done the search, Google will continue to follow me around with ads tailored to my search.

Re: Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

#38
post #7

The employees, they dumped a lot of their shares probably. They are allowed since Monday to sell them.

Lockup doesn't expire until six months after the IPO. Employees and ex-employees have a while to wait until they can begin selling.

Re: Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

#40
There are only two parties hurt by this:

1. The premiere clients of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley who bought into the lie that FB should trade at >100:1 P/E; and

2. Facebook.

(1) I don't care about. (2) is the interesting one. You'll note that I don't include the employees in the list of injured parties. They're largely in a lockout anyway (I assume?). Whether it opens at $38 and drops to $30 or starts at $20 and climbs to $30 is of little consequence.

Facebook strategically seems concerned with only two companies: Google (disclaimer: I work for Google) and Apple, both of which have established, proven businesses and strategic assets in Internet and mobile going forward.

Facebook is a platform company without a mobile platform in a world becoming increasingly mobile.

Facebook has a lot of cheerleaders, optimists and pundits all backing this idea that the potential of all this data is huge, so much so that I believe they started to believe their own positive press. It's an easy trap to fall into.

But make no mistake: this is bad for Facebook. Sure some investors, Zuck and (maybe?) some employees made a few more dollars but Facebook doesn't need the money and neither do most of the investors. But that's incredibly shortsighted.

Facebook's ability to retain and attract talent and make stock-based acquisitions is in large part determined by the health and outlook of their stock. If they'd IPOed for $20-25 and jumped to $30 then they would have a lot of momentum behind them.

Instead the press is "how low will it go?" What kind of position is that to be in if, say, you're trying to negotiate a $1B+ stock-based acquisition?

Anyway, I'm glad about this drop. Not out of any kind of schadenfreude but because the market is acting... rationally. These P/Es were never justified and instead of not mattering and the stock skyrocketing anyway (which would happen were we in a bubble, which we are not), the stock is seeking a more appropriate level.

This is good for us, the tech industry and the market and the fact that some choice clients of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley got bilked along the way is just gravy as far as I'm concerned.

EDIT: to clarify, I don't really have a position on what the appropriate level is other than $38 is and was too high. It could still well go lower than $30.

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