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Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

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Re: Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

#21
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I assume it was financially healthy for a very small group of people within Facebook. Most of the employees would be on lockdown before they can sell their stocks on the public market, no?

Facebook, the company, got a lot of money out of the IPO, not Facebook's individual employee holdings.

Insiders got even more out of the IPO than the company did.

Re: Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

#22
post #9

Can anyone explain why they are down 7%?

Supply and demand is the answer, although probably not the one you are looking for!

The WSJ reported the options market has just opened for FB stocks. A lot of people seem to be very bearish about FB so a lot of short action could significantly impact the demand of FB stock.

I'm an amateur at this though, and would love someone to correct me if I'm completely off here :)

Re: Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

#23
post #16
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The early investors made out like kings, but I doubt Facebook's employees are in a cheery mood as they watch their options sink underwater and their vested paper wealth dissipate while waiting for the lockup period to end.

Isn't that the fault of the private investors for overvaluing Facebook? Presumably all granted options had a strike based based on the current private valuation, which clearly the public market doesn't agree with (without judgement as to whether the public market is right or wrong).

From what I understand (not an FB employee, but know several) the stock grants in the last ~3 years have been RSUs not options, which at least means they can't be underwater

Re: Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

#24
post #8
post #2

While the IPO was bad for investors, it was certainly good (financially) for Facebook. They definitely maximized their earnings from the IPO and Zuckerberg really made out well getting just under $38/share for his $1.1bn in shares. In contrast to the Google IPO in which the stock skyrocketed on the first day and really took off after that. Google may have been able to extract quite a bit from their IPO than they did.

The early investors made out like kings, but I doubt Facebook's employees are in a cheery mood as they watch their options sink underwater and their vested paper wealth dissipate while waiting for the lockup period to end.

I'd like for someone to explain precisely what Facebook should have done to ensure a big pop. Value the shares at $5? What if their internal projections indicated the company was worth more than that? Picking an artificially low strike price for the options probably would have resulted in people going to jail, not to mention all the employees owing taxes on the difference.

Re: Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

#25
post #16
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The early investors made out like kings, but I doubt Facebook's employees are in a cheery mood as they watch their options sink underwater and their vested paper wealth dissipate while waiting for the lockup period to end.

Isn't that the fault of the private investors for overvaluing Facebook? Presumably all granted options had a strike based based on the current private valuation, which clearly the public market doesn't agree with (without judgement as to whether the public market is right or wrong).

Yep, but it's still a problem for the company. Facebook has been on a hiring spree, backed by an implicit promise that anyone in before the IPO would be practically guaranteed to make a buck. If the IPO is still a bust by the time the lockup expires in 3-6 months, it's going to be an HR problem. Of course, it depends on how Facebook actually structures its compensation packages. RSU are more popular with most companies these days than stock options, so they may just be looking forward to a smaller payday than worthless options.

Re: Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

#26
post #7

The employees, they dumped a lot of their shares probably. They are allowed since Monday to sell them.

How many shares did the employees own?

Even if they all sold all of them, is it really enough to have a meaningful impact on the price of the stock with that much trading volume and that large of a market cap? Probably not!

Re: Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

#27
post #4

FB IPO is bad for the startup world

No it's not. Facebook is an anomalous company so there's not much worth in comparing it to the rest of the industry. The fact is, some $10 billion dollars just entered investor hands who will no doubt be ploughing it back into (mostly Bay Area) startups for years to come. And Facebook becoming more acquisitive certainly helps as well.

Re: Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

#29
post #4

FB IPO is bad for the startup world

Agreed. I wonder how much of the current froth is based on people trying to be the next Facebook or Instagram? If Facebook takes off and justifies their early valuation, the startup/angel/incubator/VC world would go into the stratopshere. If it continues to languish, people are going to be much more skeptical in making investments and even starting web based businesses. A lot hinges on this stock price for the rest o…

I don't think the possibility of a $50B exit vs a $100B exit will make any difference for most angel investors.
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