I was blown away recently by the sophistication of Tesla self-driving when I visited the bay area.. the one mistake it made was missing the correct path within SFO to drop me off at the correct terminal... that was a surprising mistake and I didn't have time to see if it would circle around and get it right this second time
Tesla FSD head to head against Mercedes Driver Assist on the same road [video]
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Re: Tesla FSD head to head against Mercedes Driver Assist on the same road [video]
#42Unless there is a change in how autonomous driving software is trained, it seems Tesla is destined to dominate that market, right? Tesla has the most training data consisting of video input + corresponding driver behavior. And they have the most compute power. Which twist of fate could happen, so that Tesla falls behind in the future? I could imagine that there is an invention which lets AI learn about the world by j…
No twist of fate, but self-sabotage in the form of being unwilling to use Lidar. Look how hard Waymo and Cruise are finding it to do robotaxis in a small geographical area and with Lidar. Tesla is trying to do robotaxis everywhere without using Lidar. They're solving a harder problem and are handicapping themselves while trying to do it.
Here's why Lidar makes sense. You want independent information streams that are cross checked. If both streams tells you there is no object in front of you, that's a way lower probability of being wrong than just one stream telling you that. You go from probability p to p^2 of being catastrophically wrong. It's the kind of probabilistic added safety of being in an aircraft that's capable of flying with only one engine. Even if one blows up with probability p, you're fine. You need a p^2 event for both engines to malfunction, assuming errors aren't correlated, which they probably are a bit, but not so much that the added benefit isn't massive.
Re: Tesla FSD head to head against Mercedes Driver Assist on the same road [video]
#43Unless there is a change in how autonomous driving software is trained, it seems Tesla is destined to dominate that market, right? Tesla has the most training data consisting of video input + corresponding driver behavior. And they have the most compute power. Which twist of fate could happen, so that Tesla falls behind in the future? I could imagine that there is an invention which lets AI learn about the world by j…
That visual sensors only seem like they make no sense when they can get obstructed by weather
The car sees as well as the driver does. Is that good enough for all circumstances? No, clearly not. But refusing to drive in situations that are unsafe for people too sounds like a feature, not a bug.
I mean, let's be blunt: the "LIDAR vs. cameras" debate has been settled at this point, and the fancy sensors lots. Of all the things one can complain about with FSD, sensor fidelity is not one. Teslas don't hit things. The problems remaining to be solved are in the planning regime: my car still misses turns at a rate somewhat higher than I do, usually because it's in the wrong lane (and that often because it thought that the backup in the turn lane was something it could go around).
Re: Tesla FSD head to head against Mercedes Driver Assist on the same road [video]
#44By many accounts, Tesla FSD has improved rapidly, now feels "very human," and will soon have greater adoption than any other self-driving software.[a] Speaking from personal experience, I've tested the most recent version of Supervised FSD, v12.3.6, and it's much better than most people realize. Once Tesla stops requiring human supervision, I expect FSD adoption rate to go "hockey-stick." --- [a] Based on a conversio…
Yes it's way beyond what most people realize now
Re: Tesla FSD head to head against Mercedes Driver Assist on the same road [video]
#45And yet speed limit detection and phantom breaking in my Tesla has only gotten worse the last year, or do FSD improvements not trickle down to non-FSD?
It's disingenuous to make this kind of claim without stating what version you are using.
Latest stable version I can get, v11.1 apparently
Re: Tesla FSD head to head against Mercedes Driver Assist on the same road [video]
#46Tesla has spent more billions on ML than any corporation in the world. I can’t wait to book my first FSD robotaxi ride at some point in the next decade.
You can book a robotaxi now with Waymo. Tesla has been promising that for years. Tesla may have been first to seriously try but currently there's no evidence they will be first in anything compared to their competitors.
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Re: Tesla FSD head to head against Mercedes Driver Assist on the same road [video]
#47Unless there is a change in how autonomous driving software is trained, it seems Tesla is destined to dominate that market, right? Tesla has the most training data consisting of video input + corresponding driver behavior. And they have the most compute power. Which twist of fate could happen, so that Tesla falls behind in the future? I could imagine that there is an invention which lets AI learn about the world by j…
No twist of fate, but self-sabotage in the form of being unwilling to use Lidar. Look how hard Waymo and Cruise are finding it to do robotaxis in a small geographical area and with Lidar. Tesla is trying to do robotaxis everywhere without using Lidar. They're solving a harder problem and are handicapping themselves while trying to do it. Here's why Lidar makes sense. You want independent information streams that are…
Counterpoint - Tesla is trying to avoid a local maximum where they are able to do robotaxi's in cars with $300,000 of equipment on roads that are precisely mapped down to the centimeter.
Waymo and Cruise may have beat them to "first robotaxi" but I'm not convinced that they have anywhere near a scalable, sustainable model.
Re: Tesla FSD head to head against Mercedes Driver Assist on the same road [video]
#48Unless there is a change in how autonomous driving software is trained, it seems Tesla is destined to dominate that market, right? Tesla has the most training data consisting of video input + corresponding driver behavior. And they have the most compute power. Which twist of fate could happen, so that Tesla falls behind in the future? I could imagine that there is an invention which lets AI learn about the world by j…
No twist of fate, but self-sabotage in the form of being unwilling to use Lidar. Look how hard Waymo and Cruise are finding it to do robotaxis in a small geographical area and with Lidar. Tesla is trying to do robotaxis everywhere without using Lidar. They're solving a harder problem and are handicapping themselves while trying to do it. Here's why Lidar makes sense. You want independent information streams that are…
That analysis only works when p is non-vanishing, though. In point of fact the "car drives into something it didn't see" failure mode doesn't really exist, or if it does it's at a level much smaller than that of the human driver its intended to replace.
Re: Tesla FSD head to head against Mercedes Driver Assist on the same road [video]
#49I was surprised to see so many driver interventions on the Mercedes side - 44 vs 0 by the end of the 20 minute video. Maybe that's why it's branded "Driver Assist" and not FSD, so not a true comparison. Also, a little funny to see a random Model Y appear just ahead of the Mercedes at the end of the video.
It’s hard to tell but looks like a lot of those interventions were just him accidentally taking it out because he was keeping his hands off. And because of his bias and comfort with FSD would let the Tesla get away with more.
I didn't watch through the whole thing, but the first 12 interventions were definitely valid interventions: “we're drifting again, oh, we're on the yellow line again”, etc
Re: Tesla FSD head to head against Mercedes Driver Assist on the same road [video]
#50Earlier quoted context omitted.
Had you watched the video before commenting, you would know the point of the video is that Consumer Reports gave Mercedes self driving a much higher rating than Tesla. Video shows how awful the Mercedes software really is
Consumer Reports must have done similar tests to what is seen in the video (eg. just driving with these systems), yet they came out with the result that they did. What happened there?
Simple: The video is comparing apples to oranges.
They are comparing self driving to driver assistance.