Live data from Hacker News

Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs

spaceweatherlive.com

351–360 of 418 posts

Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs

#351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there's a bit of misconceptions that it's only long distance transmission lines that are affected. There's a lot of things that are affected. I guess the misunderstanding is understandable due to the famous "long distance lines catching on fire" occurrence during the Carrington event.

It was my understanding that radiation levels at Earths surface are still very low unless you had some kind of amplifying collector (ie - large antenna). Devices at high altitudes and space are subjected to CME events quite often, and usually don't have many side effects other than degraded RF signal propagation. What effects might you see at ground level in a normal microprocessor device? More bit flips than normal?…

You make a great point about the resilience of certain tech during solar events. Most everyday electronics are shielded enough to handle minor solar disturbances, but the intense conditions of multiple X-class flares and a KP-9 geomagnetic storm like we're discussing can push beyond the usual scenarios.

Storms like this one flood the Earth's magnetosphere with energetic particles, increasing geomagnetic currents that can affect both large-scale and local infrastructure. This might lead to unusual behavior in ground-level electronics, such as increased bit flips, clock shifts, or even unexpected resets in sensitive systems.

As for satellites, their advanced shielding often keeps them running smoothly, which likely explains why your internet service didn't get borked. But during extreme events like now, disruptions to satellite functions and GPS signals will occur, as these systems face direct exposure to the storm's impact. Most likely spare capacity rerouted to supply your link during the impact.

I think it's interesting that secondary particles formed when these high-energy solar particles smash into atmospheric molecules also make their way down to us. These include muons and neutrons—particles that, while generally harmless, can penetrate deep into the atmosphere and occasionally impact ground-level electronics, adding another layer of interaction during severe solar events.

There's also the way that alterations to the flux of EM fields induced locally by the larger currents fluxing in the global electric circuit can cause glitches in microelectronics. And how the fluxing of current in the Earth's magnetosphere causes electron and other charged particle release from the ground. All of these things are amped up now and can contribute.

This whole interaction of solar activity / space weather with our technology is a dynamic area of study—there's always more to learn about how these cosmic and solar stuff affect our ground based or Earth based tech. Hahaha! :)

Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs

#352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Under the guise of protecting the grid from an EMP attack, it would seem well worth it. I’ve seen estimates shared here, but drawing a blank at the moment. Seemed dirt cheap, relatively speaking.

I also recall seeing estimates posted on HN one time, but can’t find the source. I seem to remember $500m ish. ‘Cheap’ insurance relatively speaking.

Thank you, that was the number I was remembering as well, but it seemed so crazy low I didn't want to repeat it. Even a dysfunctional U.S. Congress should be able to cough up that much money.

Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs

#353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was my understanding that radiation levels at Earths surface are still very low unless you had some kind of amplifying collector (ie - large antenna). Devices at high altitudes and space are subjected to CME events quite often, and usually don't have many side effects other than degraded RF signal propagation. What effects might you see at ground level in a normal microprocessor device? More bit flips than normal?…

You make a great point about the resilience of certain tech during solar events. Most everyday electronics are shielded enough to handle minor solar disturbances, but the intense conditions of multiple X-class flares and a KP-9 geomagnetic storm like we're discussing can push beyond the usual scenarios. Storms like this one flood the Earth's magnetosphere with energetic particles, increasing geomagnetic currents that…

This was really interesting!

What about COTS hardware on the ISS? I haven’t heard of major failures with things like their laptops.

Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs

#354
You can see the effects of the CME on the HF amateur radio bands.

This live map (https://g7vrd.co.uk/wspr/IO81) would usually be full of worldwide contacts being reported by WSPR (Weak Signal Propagation Reporter), but the solar flares have closed down the bands quite considerably.

The map is centred on Maidenhead grid square IO81, but you can change it to wherever you are: https://www.whatsmylocator.co.uk/

This will also cause problems with aircraft, as they use HF when they're out of sight of land.

Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs

#356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You make a great point about the resilience of certain tech during solar events. Most everyday electronics are shielded enough to handle minor solar disturbances, but the intense conditions of multiple X-class flares and a KP-9 geomagnetic storm like we're discussing can push beyond the usual scenarios. Storms like this one flood the Earth's magnetosphere with energetic particles, increasing geomagnetic currents that…

This was really interesting! What about COTS hardware on the ISS? I haven’t heard of major failures with things like their laptops.

Thanks! :) Haha! I think the ISS hull uses classified shielding to provide some kind of advanced protection. But it's expensive and based on materials science activated with electric fields. I think they also have some detection system to detect and correct single-event effects. Just info tho, I don't have an article source for this haha! :)

Even then astronnauts may be advised to not use some devices during specific solar weather, or to move to safer parts of the craft hahaha! :)

Regarding some more general info you might be interested in:

- https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20200001591/downloads/20...

- https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20180002659/downloads/20...

Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs

#357
post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The trend is that humans are incapable of long term global initiatives Doesn't this sort of assertion leave no room for the possibility of learning to do so?

No, trends can be broken.

Though the constant doomerism one encounters when they speculate about breaking such trends can discourage anyone from thinking it’s worth pursuing.

Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs

#358

I'm wondering what the effect would be if we had astronauts on the moon, or on the way to mars.

There was an episode about this in For All Mankind though I have no idea how reality based it was. They depicted it more or less like radiation poisoning.

Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs

#359
post #292
post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Humanity is good in sweeping problems under the rug and not preparing to various threats.

Also good at response. Ozone situation was fixed and now we actually track the asteroids.

The current ozone situation is very bad and worsening.

Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs

#360
post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it’s lack of strong enough political consensus But this _is_ the psychological deficiency of our species.

No, the fact people can have different opinions is a richness. The point of political activity is to align these opinions.

Yes, opinions about which foods people prefer. Not “opinions” on the factuality of scientific knowledge (which is a large part of what feeds into discord at the political level— avoidably so).
Post reply on HN