Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs • Hacker News Board

Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs

#341

Post by beeeeerp » Sat, May 11, 2024, 11:56 AM UTC

keepamovin wrote: post #304

beeeeerp wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s highly unlikely to have a CME as a root cause unless it was connected to long distance transmission lines. CMEs tend not to affect small electronics on their own.

I think there's a bit of misconceptions that it's only long distance transmission lines that are affected. There's a lot of things that are affected. I guess the misunderstanding is understandable due to the famous "long distance lines catching on fire" occurrence during the Carrington event.

It was my understanding that radiation levels at Earths surface are still very low unless you had some kind of amplifying collector (ie - large antenna).

Devices at high altitudes and space are subjected to CME events quite often, and usually don't have many side effects other than degraded RF signal propagation.

What effects might you see at ground level in a normal microprocessor device? More bit flips than normal?

I was also expecting my satellite internet to degrade during the last CME that made the news (apologies - can’t remember the date), but it kept chugging along as if nothing had happened.

Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs

#342

Post by borbulon » Sat, May 11, 2024, 12:42 PM UTC

secondcoming wrote: post #299

bongodongobob wrote: post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kind of tired of hearing this. Citing one initiative from 50 years ago is the definition of cherry picking, I'm sorry. The trend is that humans are incapable of long term global initiatives. I'm sure some game theory guy could prove it.

We also solved Peak Oil, Acid Rain and saved the whales.

Though we have yet to shoot the seals

Edit: context

https://youtu.be/s95mEchLZEA

Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs

#343

Post by heavenlyblue » Sat, May 11, 2024, 12:50 PM UTC

MaxBarraclough wrote: post #333

freshpretzels wrote: post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then why is there a global supply chain and global agriculture systems and internet

Gall's Law speaks to this: > A complex system that works is invariably found to have evolved from a simple system that worked. A complex system designed from scratch never works and cannot be patched up to make it work. You have to start over with a working simple system. Gall uses the web as an example. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Gall_(author)#Gall's_law

Sounds like Gall's own invented horseshit with not much proof to it. Albeit believable.

Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs

#344

Post by heavenlyblue » Sat, May 11, 2024, 1:11 PM UTC

Johnny555 wrote: post #155

ThrowawayR2 wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't think backpacking water filters would help much in for getting water from rivers / ponds in an urban/suburban environment? They'd take care of particulate matter and microbes but I doubt they'd do much for chemical contaminants.

Also, most filters can filter bacteria and cysts, but can't filter out viruses. Many say viruses are not an issue in the backcountry (but I still use purifying tablets), but if you're taking water from a suburban stream during a disaster, I'd definitely want to make sure I'm not ingesting whatever viruses the guy upstream deposited when he used the stream as a toilet.

Viruses do not survive in the open air well because they don't have a hybernation mechanism as opposed to bacteria

Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs

#345

Post by tommerjones » Sat, May 11, 2024, 1:11 PM UTC

lgats wrote: post #105

phyalow wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If anyone else was looking for the source of this, it's here: https://emergencyprocedures.pjm.com/ep/pages/dashboard.jsf

Fascinating, if anyone has info on other grids that share these types of alerts, pease link!

ISO New England: https://www.iso-ne.com/event-details?eventId=155085

Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs

#346

Post by SomeoneFromCA » Sat, May 11, 2024, 1:13 PM UTC

vakz wrote: post #297

jug wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, there's usually no ill effects reported even from pretty strong ones, but lights in Stockholm, Sweden (which is itself pretty far south for an aurora in the first place) were reported to flicker earlier this evening. That's pretty remarkable.

Not just Stockholm. They also flickered where I live, some two hours away from Stockholm,

We had an intermittent power outage in central Asia, around 21:30-22:00 in Stockholm time. It is like thousands miles away.

But we have a weak grid anyway, so it might be unrelated.

Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs

#347

Post by aaron695 » Sat, May 11, 2024, 1:33 PM UTC

[dead]

Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs

#348

Post by tchock23 » Sat, May 11, 2024, 1:39 PM UTC

macintux wrote: post #206

N0b8ez wrote: post #177

I wonder how much it would cost to harden the US power grid against another Carrington Event, such that "only" thousands of people would die, instead of millions.

Under the guise of protecting the grid from an EMP attack, it would seem well worth it. I’ve seen estimates shared here, but drawing a blank at the moment. Seemed dirt cheap, relatively speaking.

I also recall seeing estimates posted on HN one time, but can’t find the source. I seem to remember $500m ish. ‘Cheap’ insurance relatively speaking.

Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs

#349

Post by blueflow » Sat, May 11, 2024, 1:40 PM UTC

unethical_ban wrote: post #203

gnatman wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This paper estimates Kp = (8.4±0.8). Because the scale is logarithmic, the difference between 8 and 9.2 is obviously quite extreme. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/asna.2022007...

I'm sure there are articles discussing the point, but I wonder why citizen-facing scales don't use more linear representations for things.

Logarithmic scales are not that exotic. "Damages going in the 6-digits" is a common thing to say and people do understand.

Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs

#350

Post by Toutouxc » Sat, May 11, 2024, 1:41 PM UTC

closewith wrote: post #293

ben_w wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a reason to not use Latin; but when it comes to numbers and scales… I was surprised to discover that other people are themselves often surprised when they learn that a billion is a thousand times larger than a million.

Which is itself a relatively recent standardisation. Up to the '70's, a billion could beat thousand million or million million depending on where you were.

Which standardization? The world is still very much split between the long and short scale (and other systems)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_and_short_scales