Live data from Hacker News

Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs

spaceweatherlive.com

301–310 of 418 posts

Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs

#301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sure there are articles discussing the point, but I wonder why citizen-facing scales don't use more linear representations for things.

Linear scales usually don't have an intuitive upper limit that people can understand ("is 10000 bad?"). Citizen-facing scales should optimally go from 0 (no concern) to 10 (either world-shattering event or highest value ever observed). Due to the nature of how many natural disasters scale in impact on humans, this will often result in an logarithmic scale.

Excellent point about linear, but sometimes log_10 accelerates pointlessly fast. log_2 might be more reasonable.

Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs

#302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uuuuh I have a flight today 8pm CT . What will this mean for airplanes?

Nothing consequential for a single flight. Even crew really don't have to worry about it until it gets to very high levels, according to the NOAA scales

This did his the highest recordable levels. G5 "Extreme". See "Estimated Planetary K index", here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aviation-community-das...

Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs

#303

A science presenter mentioned that the sunspots were supposed visible without magnification using eclipse glasses.

I see one right now near the bottom limb (observing from North America). It's been slowly moving to right the last few days as the sun rotates. I'm using cheap eclipse glasses.

That's the one that's been popping.

Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs

#304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know if it's related but my phone's screen was flickering earlier.

That’s highly unlikely to have a CME as a root cause unless it was connected to long distance transmission lines. CMEs tend not to affect small electronics on their own.

I think there's a bit of misconceptions that it's only long distance transmission lines that are affected. There's a lot of things that are affected. I guess the misunderstanding is understandable due to the famous "long distance lines catching on fire" occurrence during the Carrington event.

Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs

#305
post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also good at response. Ozone situation was fixed and now we actually track the asteroids.

Kind of tired of hearing this. Citing one initiative from 50 years ago is the definition of cherry picking, I'm sorry. The trend is that humans are incapable of long term global initiatives. I'm sure some game theory guy could prove it.

Then why is there a global supply chain and global agriculture systems and internet

Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs

#306
post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's just the anthropic principle for you: If we'd have been any less lucky, we wouldn't be here to write about it :)

I think you miss the point s/he's making: back in the 90's we were much less reliant on computers than today, much more cash based. It would have been a wake-up call, today it would be a calamity.

The 90s were not that long ago, we should restore and document and know the old cash-based ways while we still have those experts and those workers with us. Great thread and reminder about these things.

Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs

#307

Should I disconnect my computer from the grid at this point? (I'm using a UPS with built-in power surge protection but I'd rather not test it in prod.)

CMEs do not directly affect electronics. Charged particles simply do not reach the surface. They instead distort the geomagnetic field, and the changing magnetic field induces voltage. But the Earth's magnetic field is pretty weak, so the voltage becomes significant only for very large circuits. Such as transmission lines or old-style telegraph lines.

This is a misconception. The geomagnetic disruption temporarily weakens the earth's magnetic field effectively allowing more charged particles to penetrate the upper atmosphere, and even right down to surface. This upper atmosphere penetration is what causes auroras in fact: the charged solar particles imparting energy to atmospheric gases and compounds through impact, that they re-emit that energy as beautiful light when they return to baseline / ground state. Also Earth is constantly bombarded by cosmic energy and particles too, and the weakened shield during CME also allows some of that to penetrate deeper.

Also, the global electric circuit is affected by CMEs which affects all electric systems on the planet, to some degree.

While it's true that Earth’s atmosphere and magnetic field shield the surface from most direct particle impacts, the main effect of CMEs come instead from their effect on the electromagnetics of Earth.

For example, these disturbances can induce currents in the Earth itself and even in biological systems, which are sensitive to electromagnetic changes.

This can affect everything from power grids to navigation systems and even animal migration patterns. So, while individual electronic devices might not be directly fried by a CME, they can still be affected by the impact, as well as the broader electrical and biological systems on Earth.

To put it another way: while these particles themselves may not reach the surface, their effects certainly do. The interaction of these particles with the Earth's magnetic field can lead to geomagnetic storms and disturbances that indirectly affect the surface through induced currents, as previously mentioned. These interactions can influence electrical grids and even have subtler effects on biological systems. Thus, the primary impact of CMEs at the surface comes from the electromagnetic fluctuations they cause, rather than from direct contact with the charged particles.

Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs

#308

Can you really call yourself a prepper if you don’t have a faraday cage with a spare laptop inside? (The intersection of doomerism and tech is amusingly cyberpunk sometimes.) Actually, what’s the most useful way you’d prepare for a worldwide grid outage? This isn’t that, but sometimes I wonder if a future CME might be as catastrophic as some say.

> what’s the most useful way you’d prepare for a worldwide grid outage?

It's the same as asking: how would you prepare if you were to travel back in time to 600 CE?

You need to be self-sufficient. You cannot rely on money for at least 18 months. You need to be somewhere with access to water, shelter and food. And not that many people. The only safe bet is to have an off grid 'bunker' or holiday home that you could ride out the global chaos for 2 years.

Worldwide grid outage is pretty low likelihood but if it happens everyone will be reminded of the worst aspects of human nature, and the cruel indifference of nature pretty fast.

Also, gasoline.

Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs

#309
post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also good at response. Ozone situation was fixed and now we actually track the asteroids.

Kind of tired of hearing this. Citing one initiative from 50 years ago is the definition of cherry picking, I'm sorry. The trend is that humans are incapable of long term global initiatives. I'm sure some game theory guy could prove it.

Strong disagree. When there is sufficient political will complex policies can and will be enacted. What is missing in climate action is not some psychological deficiency of our species, it’s lack of strong enough political consensus.

”We can’t do this” is both inaccurate and harmfull. I believe ”We are not currently fixing this” and ”there is a need for stronger political alignment” are the more accurate descriptions of the current malaise.

Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs

#310
Are these type of events problematic for putting nuclear weapons in space or is it just fine and you could never get accidental detonations or even just large amounts of uranium burning up in the atmosphere because military satellites are shielded so well!?
Post reply on HN