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How much is enough to FIRE in San Francisco?

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21–30 of 120 posts

Re: How much is enough to FIRE in San Francisco?

#21

Companies are essentially subsidizing $1M (or more now?) mortgages if you are willing to go into their SV offices. You don't have to retire there! Just sell the house and move on.

I hadn’t heard of this, what are some example companies I can look at?

they just mean that this is what the geo-adjusted salary is doing

Re: How much is enough to FIRE in San Francisco?

#22
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not if you bought a couple decades ago or inherited from your parents.

Not sure how it works in every state, but my property taxes are liable to increase year to year, for a home I own. Are you saying this is not the case in California? They just true up property taxes for a property upon next sale?

yes, it is a serious problem in california - people consider this one of the primary causes of the housing crisis

Re: How much is enough to FIRE in San Francisco?

#23

Companies are essentially subsidizing $1M (or more now?) mortgages if you are willing to go into their SV offices. You don't have to retire there! Just sell the house and move on.

You don’t have to retire there, but it turns out that the Bay Area has one of the most pleasant climates in the entire world for humans and it is coupled with some of the most stunningly beautiful and varied terrain in the world.

It’s hard to leave and call anything else retirement if you’re just considering climate, weather, and nature. My family did end up leaving the area but it was hard. I am still working. Wouldn’t surprise me if I return some day.

Re: How much is enough to FIRE in San Francisco?

#24
post #12
post #4

Doesn't this depend heavily on inflation? With the ballooning US debt, how do people imagine the government will continue to pay interest without massive inflation in a few decades?

The 4% rule accounts for inflation. The stock market on an average gives you 7% a year in returns adjusted for inflation. The 4% gives you enough cushion in case of economic turmoil.

Yeah but have you seen the interest rate on the national deb and the amount the fed government is borrowing every year?

The interest we pay on the debt has just passed defense spending this year as a percentage of the federal budget.

I cant imagine how 4% inflation will continue to be the norm as the government has to print more and more money to pay for this stuff.

Re: How much is enough to FIRE in San Francisco?

#25
post #2

The funny thing is that I just plucked 5MM out of a hat for my number 5 or so years ago when asked and I guess this analysis supports my intuition. The one big problem with renting is instability. If the owner decides to sell the property, it may be difficult to find something equivalent on your terms or you may be forced to hop around a few times before settling.

I guessed $6M when I read the headline. I'm in a LCOL area so I see ~$4.5M as my number. Inflation / future returns are the biggest challenge.

Re: How much is enough to FIRE in San Francisco?

#27
The 4% rule as a plan is not very smart in the current environment. A few years ago it was difficult to get safe higher yielding equities/bonds, but no longer.

You can build a quite safe stock/bond portfolio yielding 8% on distributions alone. Why would you aim to sell 4% of principal a year when you can avoid touching the principal at all at close to twice the yield?

Large caps are also at quite high valuations historically... earnings grow over time, but valuation multiples are cyclical. There are so many safe small caps at depressed, recessionary valuations right now.

Look at any number of the ~1B market cap or under REITs that often yield 7%+ right now and have strong balance sheets and good growth prospects

Owning 10,000 apartment buildings isn't really any more differentiated or safer than owning 1000. Especially not when you're paying 1.5x the multiple for it.

The growth in popularity of passive investing has really inflated the spread in valuation between large/small cap.

EDIT: The negative engagement on this comment is strongly explanatory as to why there's so much opportunity in the market right now.

Re: How much is enough to FIRE in San Francisco?

#28
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not if you bought a couple decades ago or inherited from your parents.

Not sure how it works in every state, but my property taxes are liable to increase year to year, for a home I own. Are you saying this is not the case in California? They just true up property taxes for a property upon next sale?

Prop 13 means that property tax increases are capped at 2% or inflation, whichever is lower.

Re: How much is enough to FIRE in San Francisco?

#29
post #12
post #4

Doesn't this depend heavily on inflation? With the ballooning US debt, how do people imagine the government will continue to pay interest without massive inflation in a few decades?

The 4% rule accounts for inflation. The stock market on an average gives you 7% a year in returns adjusted for inflation. The 4% gives you enough cushion in case of economic turmoil.

The stock market on average has given you 7%. That may not be a safe assumption going forward - going far forward. I might live another 30 years. If you FIRE, you might live another 50. Will the stock market continue to yield 7% over the next 50 years? That's a larger assumption than I'm comfortable making.

Re: How much is enough to FIRE in San Francisco?

#30
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not if you bought a couple decades ago or inherited from your parents.

Not sure how it works in every state, but my property taxes are liable to increase year to year, for a home I own. Are you saying this is not the case in California? They just true up property taxes for a property upon next sale?

Yep! It's good to be born rich already!
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