Live data from Hacker News

How much is enough to FIRE in San Francisco?

andrenader.substack.com

11–20 of 120 posts

Re: How much is enough to FIRE in San Francisco?

#11
post #4

Doesn't this depend heavily on inflation? With the ballooning US debt, how do people imagine the government will continue to pay interest without massive inflation in a few decades?

Presumably their investments would inflate as well. Unfortunately, the asset owning class is protected by inflation in that way.

It's the lower / middle class who have cash savings that get wrecked by inflation.

Re: How much is enough to FIRE in San Francisco?

#12
post #4

Doesn't this depend heavily on inflation? With the ballooning US debt, how do people imagine the government will continue to pay interest without massive inflation in a few decades?

The 4% rule accounts for inflation. The stock market on an average gives you 7% a year in returns adjusted for inflation. The 4% gives you enough cushion in case of economic turmoil.

Re: How much is enough to FIRE in San Francisco?

#13
post #4

Doesn't this depend heavily on inflation? With the ballooning US debt, how do people imagine the government will continue to pay interest without massive inflation in a few decades?

The same as always? Pay old debt with new debt. Other countries might run into issues with exchange rates this way, but the status of the USD is dampening such effects.

Re: How much is enough to FIRE in San Francisco?

#14
post #4

Doesn't this depend heavily on inflation? With the ballooning US debt, how do people imagine the government will continue to pay interest without massive inflation in a few decades?

I dont think people understand it or arent aware or are in blissful denial.

Im guilty of this, just a few years ago I started researching it even though its been a problem for decades or more.

The news media puts wars on the front page and the debt on the back page if its reported at all.

In my opinion this one of the biggest existential threats to America and the main stream media isnt even raising any red flags.

Re: How much is enough to FIRE in San Francisco?

#15

This analysis doesn't seem to account for inflation? In 40 years, withdrawing $140,000 will not be nearly as much. For reference, inflation over the last 40 years has been 300%. So you're talking about $47k in inflation adjusted purchasing power in 40 years.

It does factor in inflation. I am using a 3% safe withdraw rate in my calculations which is where I withdraw 3% of my portfolio balance in year one, then in year two I take that original amount and adjust it up by inflation, and continue doing this each year. So it will maintain the same buying power.

Re: How much is enough to FIRE in San Francisco?

#16

Companies are essentially subsidizing $1M (or more now?) mortgages if you are willing to go into their SV offices. You don't have to retire there! Just sell the house and move on.

I hadn’t heard of this, what are some example companies I can look at?

Re: How much is enough to FIRE in San Francisco?

#17

This analysis doesn't seem to account for inflation? In 40 years, withdrawing $140,000 will not be nearly as much. For reference, inflation over the last 40 years has been 300%. So you're talking about $47k in inflation adjusted purchasing power in 40 years.

the 3% rule accounts for inflation. Average nominal return 7-10%, inflation of 3.5% average, leaves you 3% withdrawal with no decrease (or even an increase) in principle in real dollars

Re: How much is enough to FIRE in San Francisco?

#18
post #10
post #9

I wonder what the number would be assuming you own your own home. I thought it would make a real difference, but instead of $60K/year you spend on renting a house (in his calculation), you'd spend $30K/year on property taxes :-(( So, not much of difference if you own a $2M house.

Not if you bought a couple decades ago or inherited from your parents.

Not sure how it works in every state, but my property taxes are liable to increase year to year, for a home I own. Are you saying this is not the case in California? They just true up property taxes for a property upon next sale?

Re: How much is enough to FIRE in San Francisco?

#19
post #11
post #4

Doesn't this depend heavily on inflation? With the ballooning US debt, how do people imagine the government will continue to pay interest without massive inflation in a few decades?

Presumably their investments would inflate as well. Unfortunately, the asset owning class is protected by inflation in that way. It's the lower / middle class who have cash savings that get wrecked by inflation.

Depends on the asset, but usually salaries follow inflation more closely than investments.

Re: How much is enough to FIRE in San Francisco?

#20

Companies are essentially subsidizing $1M (or more now?) mortgages if you are willing to go into their SV offices. You don't have to retire there! Just sell the house and move on.

I hadn’t heard of this, what are some example companies I can look at?

Maybe they mean they pay more in the bay area because of the high housing costs.
Post reply on HN