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After Facebook fails

blogs.law.harvard.edu

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Re: After Facebook fails

#71

Post by thedaveoflife »

hammock wrote: post #31
polemic wrote: post #16

I have no idea if Facebook is valued correctly or not, however I think this misses a vital point. Facebook is not nearly the same as other web ventures. It's ability to target ads seems secondary to this: From http://www.kenburbary.com/2011/03/facebook-demographics-revi... , slightly out of date, but still useful: - Average user visits the site 40 times per month - Average user spends an 23 minutes (23:20 to be preci…

How many of those users use adblockers? What if the most popular browser started shipping with adblocking enabled out of the box?

how many people who watch television DVR and fast-forward through the ads?

Re: After Facebook fails

#72

Post by stdgy »

ajessup wrote: post #55
cletus wrote: post #44

Here's my take on Facebook (disclaimer: I work for Google, these opinions are purely my own and not representative of the company, yadda yadda yadda). Display advertising works best when you have sufficient, quality inventory (publishers whose sites serve ads) such that you attract advertisers in sufficient quantity and quality. Targeting in display ads works because from the publishers, the intermediary has informat…

I'd be interested to hear any insights as to why Facebook hasn't yet pushed to build a display advertising network for third party publishers (a la DoubleClick). That way it could leverage the assets that it does have (behavioral profiles) against an asset it doesn't (users with direct purchase intent). On a side note - I'd take issue with your suggestion that the information on Facebook is largely useless to an adve…

I expected Facebook to announce plans for an ad network to coincide with their IPO. I'm a little flummoxed that we haven't heard anything yet. It seems like an obvious outgrowth. I wonder if concerns over a privacy backlash would push them to keep this project on the back burner?

(Though I don't personally see any privacy issues with such a project)

Re: After Facebook fails

#73

Post by pyoung »

mcantelon wrote: post #26

I didn't get through the whole post as it's kind of disjointed and meandering, but its initial assertions seem shaky. Personalized ads do have business value. After looking at some videos about Native Instruments audio gear on YouTube, I started getting a lot of Native Instruments ads pretty quickly. Unlike television, I am being shown ads for something I might actually buy rather than ads for things I will never buy…

The practices of the marketing and advertising industry have a history of being received negatively, only to be reluctantly and slowly accepted as a normal part of everyday life. I am currently reading an old economics books (org. published 1958) that rails against the industry for creating unwarranted demand for non-essential products, and argues that it is a root cause of economic volatility. Of course, by today's standards, the industry practices of 1958 would seem tame.

Re: After Facebook fails

#74

Post by gerrit »

damian2000 wrote: post #69

For some reason the Facebook IPO reminds me of when Steve Case sold AOL to TimeWarner in 2000. From the AOL wikipedia page :- "AOL is best known for its online software suite, also called AOL, that allowed customers to access the world's largest "walled garden" online community and eventually reach out to the Internet as a whole." At the time it was held in high regard for getting such a massive online user base (aro…

AOL wasnt sold to Time Warner, it was the other way around (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Warner#2000)

Re: After Facebook fails

#75

Post by praptak »

A bit off on tangent - I believe the real potential for "the game changer" in advertising is in the following quote from the article: "If, for instance, frequent-flyer programs and travel destinations actually knew when you were thinking about planning a trip."

Hey, if you create a medium where I can proactively request offers of particular kind, then I'm all yours. Provided I have control over what I request - I can set a time limit on a query, revoke it, etc.

Re: After Facebook fails

#76

Post by Taesti »

hammock wrote: post #31
polemic wrote: post #16

I have no idea if Facebook is valued correctly or not, however I think this misses a vital point. Facebook is not nearly the same as other web ventures. It's ability to target ads seems secondary to this: From http://www.kenburbary.com/2011/03/facebook-demographics-revi... , slightly out of date, but still useful: - Average user visits the site 40 times per month - Average user spends an 23 minutes (23:20 to be preci…

How many of those users use adblockers? What if the most popular browser started shipping with adblocking enabled out of the box?

Here's a recent study on adblocking. http://clarityray.com/Content/ClarityRay_AdBlockReport.pdf

Re: After Facebook fails

#77

Post by sgift »

polemic wrote: post #46
cletus wrote: post #44

Here's my take on Facebook (disclaimer: I work for Google, these opinions are purely my own and not representative of the company, yadda yadda yadda). Display advertising works best when you have sufficient, quality inventory (publishers whose sites serve ads) such that you attract advertisers in sufficient quantity and quality. Targeting in display ads works because from the publishers, the intermediary has informat…

Agree with just about all of that. > "Their mobile presence is at the behest of Apple, Google and (arguably) Microsoft." A majority of non-techy types I know bought smart phones because they "do facebook". There is a deeply symbiotic relationship there, and woe is the mobile maker that couldn't provide a Facebook app.

Sure, but did you notice how they use Facebook? I've watched (and asked) several of my non-techy friends and there reaction was always the same: "Yeah, I just update my feed, look for updates of my friends and that's it."

I don't see how Facebook wants to make money of such an usage pattern, so at the moment it doesn't help them very much that people have smart phones to "do facebook".

Re: After Facebook fails

#78

Post by sparknlaunch12 »

People saw value in Facebook, otherwise they wouldn't have purchases shares last week. Yes, well overvalued but investors are willing to pay a premium for the associated and perceived value.

1) The main value is the sunk cost people have in Facebook. The vast majority of your family and friends are on the platform. You unwittingly have built up a scrap book of your past few years - photos, messages, relationships...

2) The other value is the time people spend on Facebook plus the large user base. You just need one or two mechanisms to extract revenue from this position and you are winning.

There are plenty of risks, some may be:

1) The Government cracks down on privacy or advertising standards.

2) An alternative arrives that makes it easy to transfer your profile. You can always download your Facebook profile.

3) Suffers the MySpace factor. Facebook is left behind due to better and more exciting offerings.

For now, Zuckerberg has shown his ability to compete. Until people stop spending hours on Facebook, they are very far from failure.

Re: After Facebook fails

#79

Post by angryasian »

Dn_Ab wrote: post #61
cletus wrote: post #44

Here's my take on Facebook (disclaimer: I work for Google, these opinions are purely my own and not representative of the company, yadda yadda yadda). Display advertising works best when you have sufficient, quality inventory (publishers whose sites serve ads) such that you attract advertisers in sufficient quantity and quality. Targeting in display ads works because from the publishers, the intermediary has informat…

I can imagine two future timelines where facebook turns out big. Facebook could do either: 1. Figure out when people want something and what they want. And insert suggestive ads in people's streams in a way that is not creepy. Or gamble that beyond a token uproar, they will not disturb their equilibrium enough to allow a competitor's toy to slowly siphon their users. Facebook could also figure out when people are loo…

facebook is already offering facebook offers. Its a great idea.. they know when people's birthdays are on your friends list and some of their relationships. They should offer a personalized deals at these times, dinner or online coupons.

Re: After Facebook fails

#80

Post by pyoung »

soup10 wrote: post #66

I have a crazy idea, why doesn't Facebook charge for premium accounts? They would really only need to get what? Maybe 10% of their users to sign up to some kind of premium subscription service to justify their valuation. It's funny how this option is rarely ever mentioned, as if selling a service to consumers is some kind of taboo for internet companies.

It's been mentioned plenty of times (at least in discussion forums). Also Facebook has been experimenting with sponsored posts in NZ, where people pay to have their status posts featured more prominently in peoples news feeds, which is essentially a 'pay for premium' service. From what I understand, it's not going too well.
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