51–60 of 83 posts
No matter how much the chattering class wants to portray this as a "fad" and not an inevitability, those of us who can type and read can see the reality for ourselves.
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I'm 58. It is hard not to be cynical when you've seen as many hype cycles as I have. Especially when you suspect the person hyping LLMs is the same person that was hyping blockchain and NFTs.
In my personal experience, cynicism seems more like a fixed personality trait people have than one that is rationally borne out of experience. If you had been holding a representative basket of tech stocks right before the dot-com bust (a classic "hype cycle"), you would be beating the S&P 500 today if you just held on to them, even after most of those companies went bankrupt. Even on crypto, it is too early to call.…
The plan is when the kids are college aged to see how it nets out and pay as much as I can from that.
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I feel like for LLM's at least, we've not seen a lot of progress on the high end for a year or so. GPT4-Turbo is a little better than GPT4, but mainly only for things that can benefit from huge contexts.
We have seen progress, but mostly price progress.
No matter how much the chattering class wants to portray this as a "fad" and not an inevitability, those of us who can type and read can see the reality for ourselves.
The tech industry is guilty of fanning the flames of hype to get funding. A lot of people are rightly annoyed over some of the more outlandish claims that were made over the past 1-2 years.
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I'm just kinda sad at how cynical so many of us have become. I mean, I see tons of comments "But it hallucinates!!!!!" Yeah, no shit. At the same time, you're having a perfectly grammatically correct, natural, sensical conversation with a computer . Just a couple years ago that was purely the realm of Star Trek.
But you're not having a conversation with a computer, you are simply typing something in and the computer is producing a response.
People see legitimately novel and exiting new things computers can do. The Problems is that those things are extrapolated into the future based on insanely optimistic predictions.
Up until now every single innovation has had times of rapid advances and adoption followed by a slowing down and stagnation. Believing that artificial neural networks aren't subject to that trend is, again, extremely optimistic.
The greatest folly, I believe, is people who look at arbitrary problems and imagine AI solving them. This will not happen. Yet I see that thinking again and again. Artificial neural networks are good at certain things and bad at others.
OpenAI has succeeded massive on making people believe that it can continually improve on basically every problem at an accelerating rate. If that is true, it is obviously the most valuable company in the world. But if artificial neural networks behave like any other innovation there will be a point at which implementation is impractical and improvements will be limited.
That's a lot of words from someone who doesn't seem to have tried using these tools yet? The Hype is smoke and mirrors, but there are tons of real use cases where things were MUCH easier than before. Things like text to speech or image recognition previously required a team of 10 ML engineers a couple of years to build now take a weekend. It's smoke and mirrors to the "business world" because none of these translate…
I'm just kinda sad at how cynical so many of us have become. I mean, I see tons of comments "But it hallucinates!!!!!" Yeah, no shit. At the same time, you're having a perfectly grammatically correct, natural, sensical conversation with a computer . Just a couple years ago that was purely the realm of Star Trek.
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My opinion shifts every other day it seems, recently, Roon, the "famous" anon X account that works at OpenAI, and presumably has access to some unreleased info, said, in response to "are we plateauing soon", "not even close". I honestly don't know what to think.
I feel like for LLM's at least, we've not seen a lot of progress on the high end for a year or so. GPT4-Turbo is a little better than GPT4, but mainly only for things that can benefit from huge contexts.
That's a lot of words from someone who doesn't seem to have tried using these tools yet? The Hype is smoke and mirrors, but there are tons of real use cases where things were MUCH easier than before. Things like text to speech or image recognition previously required a team of 10 ML engineers a couple of years to build now take a weekend. It's smoke and mirrors to the "business world" because none of these translate…
I'm just kinda sad at how cynical so many of us have become. I mean, I see tons of comments "But it hallucinates!!!!!" Yeah, no shit. At the same time, you're having a perfectly grammatically correct, natural, sensical conversation with a computer . Just a couple years ago that was purely the realm of Star Trek.
> sensical conversation
Was this 'sensical' comment written by an llm?
That's a lot of words from someone who doesn't seem to have tried using these tools yet? The Hype is smoke and mirrors, but there are tons of real use cases where things were MUCH easier than before. Things like text to speech or image recognition previously required a team of 10 ML engineers a couple of years to build now take a weekend. It's smoke and mirrors to the "business world" because none of these translate…
At the end of the day, there will always be people making sweeping generalizations counter-positioning themselves against the hype in order to drive engagement. There are plenty of companies capitalizing on the AI hype cycle which won't manage to build durable businesses, but there are also plenty of use cases where AI is meaningfully accelerating people's workflows. Situations where it's effort-intensive to create s…
This is where your comment went off the rails. Is it possible the author simply disagrees with you? Or is the future of AI so clear that the only reason a person could disagree is because they're driving engagement?