Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yeah, chatbots have completely changed the way I program, and I'm not a "self-mythologizing executive and founder in Silicon Valley", also it's not only very useful but also entertaining, quite a lot of fun creating stuff with my friends using Suno or text-to-image models.
I’ve yet to find its programming help useful. ChatGPT and Copilot routinely offer bad or outright incorrect advice.
AI Is Smoke and Mirrors
41–50 of 83 posts
Re: AI Is Smoke and Mirrors
#42That's a lot of words from someone who doesn't seem to have tried using these tools yet? The Hype is smoke and mirrors, but there are tons of real use cases where things were MUCH easier than before. Things like text to speech or image recognition previously required a team of 10 ML engineers a couple of years to build now take a weekend. It's smoke and mirrors to the "business world" because none of these translate…
Re: AI Is Smoke and Mirrors
#43That's a lot of words from someone who doesn't seem to have tried using these tools yet? The Hype is smoke and mirrors, but there are tons of real use cases where things were MUCH easier than before. Things like text to speech or image recognition previously required a team of 10 ML engineers a couple of years to build now take a weekend. It's smoke and mirrors to the "business world" because none of these translate…
There are plenty of companies capitalizing on the AI hype cycle which won't manage to build durable businesses, but there are also plenty of use cases where AI is meaningfully accelerating people's workflows.
Situations where it's effort-intensive to create something from scratch but cheap to validate the output of a model and iterate on it until you're happy seem to be the sweet spot right now. Code co-pilots, generative artwork, copywriting, etc. Granted, these are all incremental improvements rather than fundamental evolutions to how we do work thus far, so that aspect seems overblown, but writing it all off as smoke and mirrors is disingenuous.
Re: AI Is Smoke and Mirrors
#44Re: AI Is Smoke and Mirrors
#45Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm just kinda sad at how cynical so many of us have become. I mean, I see tons of comments "But it hallucinates!!!!!" Yeah, no shit. At the same time, you're having a perfectly grammatically correct, natural, sensical conversation with a computer . Just a couple years ago that was purely the realm of Star Trek.
I'm 58. It is hard not to be cynical when you've seen as many hype cycles as I have. Especially when you suspect the person hyping LLMs is the same person that was hyping blockchain and NFTs.
If a very unreliable person told me it was raining I'd check myself, instead of just assuming it was sunny because they are prone to lying.
Given what we have working today, it's a matter of how transformative it all is, not whether it will be useful at all: More like the dot com boom than blockchains
Re: AI Is Smoke and Mirrors
#46That's a lot of words from someone who doesn't seem to have tried using these tools yet? The Hype is smoke and mirrors, but there are tons of real use cases where things were MUCH easier than before. Things like text to speech or image recognition previously required a team of 10 ML engineers a couple of years to build now take a weekend. It's smoke and mirrors to the "business world" because none of these translate…
I'm just kinda sad at how cynical so many of us have become. I mean, I see tons of comments "But it hallucinates!!!!!" Yeah, no shit. At the same time, you're having a perfectly grammatically correct, natural, sensical conversation with a computer . Just a couple years ago that was purely the realm of Star Trek.
Re: AI Is Smoke and Mirrors
#47Re: AI Is Smoke and Mirrors
#48Specifically, we don't have a training data corpus for any of our AI robots, enough to help them perform generalized task behaviors. So we have to go out and create them / use non training techniques, which crucially cannot leverage the existing learning / movements of humans accomplishing things.
ChatAI's training data of "generalized text on the internet" mirrors exactly what it can do right now — know a bit about everything. But there lacks computer-readable corpuses for the things that are truly useful — 1) efforts that lead to a task accomplishment and 2) better-than human efforts that lead to better-than-human output.
The key question is this: can AI reach beyond the human dataset that is currently powering it, crucially, at low(ish) cost? Or will AI always be fed training data? If we think the former, then we have to admit our algos aren't quite there yet and this iteration of AI is selling that dream.
But even with our current data-fed AI algos, we have not yet put a lot of effort into the root of the challenge - how to quickly build large sets of high quality training data. I think there can be optimization here (over a period of 10-20 years) on a similar scale of going from million dollar computer mainframes to hundred dollar laptops. If high quality training data for specialized efforts were indeed available at a low cost, then the AI revolution will effectively deliver the dream it promises - just wait for Moore's law.
The first step to solving that is an extremely polished LLM. You can see the proof of concept with SORA and other image-to-text efforts on how quality training data is created with the help of LLMs.
But of course, "LLM generated great training data" doesn't draw headlines, so it may just look like nothing is happening for a long, long time, until you see AI task bots pop up everywhere.
Re: AI Is Smoke and Mirrors
#49That's a lot of words from someone who doesn't seem to have tried using these tools yet? The Hype is smoke and mirrors, but there are tons of real use cases where things were MUCH easier than before. Things like text to speech or image recognition previously required a team of 10 ML engineers a couple of years to build now take a weekend. It's smoke and mirrors to the "business world" because none of these translate…
When a person or company comes up with something that is substantive then they won't call it 'AI' because either they will want (I assume) to differentiate it from all the junk that is out there, or they won't need to hype it up by calling it AI.
Re: AI Is Smoke and Mirrors
#50That's a lot of words from someone who doesn't seem to have tried using these tools yet? The Hype is smoke and mirrors, but there are tons of real use cases where things were MUCH easier than before. Things like text to speech or image recognition previously required a team of 10 ML engineers a couple of years to build now take a weekend. It's smoke and mirrors to the "business world" because none of these translate…
I think everyone who saw ChatGPT and thought something like “there’s a good website for instruct transformers? they’re going to have a zillion users” was acknowledging a milestone: if a tech demo is enough of a capability increase? It’s a product in spite of limitations.
But it’s been a long time, and we still don’t have save/restore, let alone “go curl this”.
We’re maximizing something other than consumer utility.