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AI Is Smoke and Mirrors

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41–50 of 83 posts

Re: AI Is Smoke and Mirrors

#41
post #20
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, chatbots have completely changed the way I program, and I'm not a "self-mythologizing executive and founder in Silicon Valley", also it's not only very useful but also entertaining, quite a lot of fun creating stuff with my friends using Suno or text-to-image models.

I’ve yet to find its programming help useful. ChatGPT and Copilot routinely offer bad or outright incorrect advice.

Claude 3 Sonnet is free like ChatGPT-3.5 but much more powerful, for what I need to do these chatbots + GPT-4-turbo can do most of what I need, from scripts for managing files to templates, rewriting code, actually solving difficult tasks (when it's too late for my brain to process), the more efficient way to use a library etc...

Re: AI Is Smoke and Mirrors

#42
post #10

That's a lot of words from someone who doesn't seem to have tried using these tools yet? The Hype is smoke and mirrors, but there are tons of real use cases where things were MUCH easier than before. Things like text to speech or image recognition previously required a team of 10 ML engineers a couple of years to build now take a weekend. It's smoke and mirrors to the "business world" because none of these translate…

When a person or company comes up with something that is substantive then they won't call it 'AI' because either they will want (I assume) to differentiate it from all the junk that is out there, or they won't need to hype it up by calling it AI.

Re: AI Is Smoke and Mirrors

#43
post #10

That's a lot of words from someone who doesn't seem to have tried using these tools yet? The Hype is smoke and mirrors, but there are tons of real use cases where things were MUCH easier than before. Things like text to speech or image recognition previously required a team of 10 ML engineers a couple of years to build now take a weekend. It's smoke and mirrors to the "business world" because none of these translate…

At the end of the day, there will always be people making sweeping generalizations counter-positioning themselves against the hype in order to drive engagement.

There are plenty of companies capitalizing on the AI hype cycle which won't manage to build durable businesses, but there are also plenty of use cases where AI is meaningfully accelerating people's workflows.

Situations where it's effort-intensive to create something from scratch but cheap to validate the output of a model and iterate on it until you're happy seem to be the sweet spot right now. Code co-pilots, generative artwork, copywriting, etc. Granted, these are all incremental improvements rather than fundamental evolutions to how we do work thus far, so that aspect seems overblown, but writing it all off as smoke and mirrors is disingenuous.

Re: AI Is Smoke and Mirrors

#45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm just kinda sad at how cynical so many of us have become. I mean, I see tons of comments "But it hallucinates!!!!!" Yeah, no shit. At the same time, you're having a perfectly grammatically correct, natural, sensical conversation with a computer . Just a couple years ago that was purely the realm of Star Trek.

I'm 58. It is hard not to be cynical when you've seen as many hype cycles as I have. Especially when you suspect the person hyping LLMs is the same person that was hyping blockchain and NFTs.

I am in my 40s myself, but it's difficult for me to not separate the very little utility we actually were seeing from NFTs with the utility I get from AI today. It's things people have in production, with millions of users, which are getting actual value out of it.

If a very unreliable person told me it was raining I'd check myself, instead of just assuming it was sunny because they are prone to lying.

Given what we have working today, it's a matter of how transformative it all is, not whether it will be useful at all: More like the dot com boom than blockchains

Re: AI Is Smoke and Mirrors

#46
post #10

That's a lot of words from someone who doesn't seem to have tried using these tools yet? The Hype is smoke and mirrors, but there are tons of real use cases where things were MUCH easier than before. Things like text to speech or image recognition previously required a team of 10 ML engineers a couple of years to build now take a weekend. It's smoke and mirrors to the "business world" because none of these translate…

I'm just kinda sad at how cynical so many of us have become. I mean, I see tons of comments "But it hallucinates!!!!!" Yeah, no shit. At the same time, you're having a perfectly grammatically correct, natural, sensical conversation with a computer . Just a couple years ago that was purely the realm of Star Trek.

But you're not having a conversation with a computer, you are simply typing something in and the computer is producing a response.

Re: AI Is Smoke and Mirrors

#48
IMO, the struggles with AI in robotics exposes where the current AI bottlenecks are more clearly.

Specifically, we don't have a training data corpus for any of our AI robots, enough to help them perform generalized task behaviors. So we have to go out and create them / use non training techniques, which crucially cannot leverage the existing learning / movements of humans accomplishing things.

ChatAI's training data of "generalized text on the internet" mirrors exactly what it can do right now — know a bit about everything. But there lacks computer-readable corpuses for the things that are truly useful — 1) efforts that lead to a task accomplishment and 2) better-than human efforts that lead to better-than-human output.

The key question is this: can AI reach beyond the human dataset that is currently powering it, crucially, at low(ish) cost? Or will AI always be fed training data? If we think the former, then we have to admit our algos aren't quite there yet and this iteration of AI is selling that dream.

But even with our current data-fed AI algos, we have not yet put a lot of effort into the root of the challenge - how to quickly build large sets of high quality training data. I think there can be optimization here (over a period of 10-20 years) on a similar scale of going from million dollar computer mainframes to hundred dollar laptops. If high quality training data for specialized efforts were indeed available at a low cost, then the AI revolution will effectively deliver the dream it promises - just wait for Moore's law.

The first step to solving that is an extremely polished LLM. You can see the proof of concept with SORA and other image-to-text efforts on how quality training data is created with the help of LLMs.

But of course, "LLM generated great training data" doesn't draw headlines, so it may just look like nothing is happening for a long, long time, until you see AI task bots pop up everywhere.

Re: AI Is Smoke and Mirrors

#49
post #10

That's a lot of words from someone who doesn't seem to have tried using these tools yet? The Hype is smoke and mirrors, but there are tons of real use cases where things were MUCH easier than before. Things like text to speech or image recognition previously required a team of 10 ML engineers a couple of years to build now take a weekend. It's smoke and mirrors to the "business world" because none of these translate…

When a person or company comes up with something that is substantive then they won't call it 'AI' because either they will want (I assume) to differentiate it from all the junk that is out there, or they won't need to hype it up by calling it AI.

OpenAI has that name because, from its inception, it was working towards AI. But when they actually released a product, they did not call it “AI”. They called it “GPT”.

Re: AI Is Smoke and Mirrors

#50
post #10

That's a lot of words from someone who doesn't seem to have tried using these tools yet? The Hype is smoke and mirrors, but there are tons of real use cases where things were MUCH easier than before. Things like text to speech or image recognition previously required a team of 10 ML engineers a couple of years to build now take a weekend. It's smoke and mirrors to the "business world" because none of these translate…

It’s not on average being developed as a product with the affordances one expects from a product: save and restore state, seamlessly maintain and modify a working set of artifacts, reset possibly corrupt cached state.

I think everyone who saw ChatGPT and thought something like “there’s a good website for instruct transformers? they’re going to have a zillion users” was acknowledging a milestone: if a tech demo is enough of a capability increase? It’s a product in spite of limitations.

But it’s been a long time, and we still don’t have save/restore, let alone “go curl this”.

We’re maximizing something other than consumer utility.

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