Live data from Hacker News

Seismologists suspect earthquake on San Andreas Fault is imminent

phys.org

51–60 of 68 posts

Re: Seismologists suspect earthquake on San Andreas Fault is imminent

#51
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have a screenshot or copy of such a video?

Even if he has one. What is the credibility of "public health influencer". I could announce that i'm that kind of influencer and record you whatever video that generates engagement no mater the facts.

Well it's different if he means Fauci, or some guy in his mom's basement. But yes, I do believe he was speaking from the wrong end, as Seneca might say.

Re: Seismologists suspect earthquake on San Andreas Fault is imminent

#52
post #38

I wonder what happens if someone hits the fault with an explosive while it's in this state of "near-earthquake". Would it make it better by relieving pressure or make it worse by triggering the main event?

Basically neither really. the energy unleashed by even moderate earthquakes through natural tectonic tension release is proportional to the degree of accumulated tension getting released, and in all such cases, these tensions contain a potential energy that is far, far greater than what any normal nuke generates. In other words, a nuke placed in the San Andreas fault even with extreme care to have maximum impact, would probably do almost nothing against the much bigger energy, and resistance to its release, already going on.

A key thing is that with nukes or any large artificial blast, the energy is pretty much released in a compact area right out into the open. With earthquakes, energy is spread across large areas and often starts far underground, yet still causes damage over a very extensive area. This is part of why earthquakes are much more energetic then man-made blasts.

Large explosions (especially nukes) do produce earthquakes and minor seismic movement, but it just doesn't compare to the comparative megaton-equivalent forces that natural tectonic movements create underground during really notable earthquakes, just like the one being "predicted" in the article above.

Re: Seismologists suspect earthquake on San Andreas Fault is imminent

#54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One thing which isn't discussed enough is how bad the Tsunami is environmentally. The coastline of Japan is absolutely littered with crap from the 2011 Tsunami. All manner of chemicals were sucked into the nearby sea, tires, carpets, hard and soft plastics, absolutely everywhere. It almost looks unrecoverable. I know that seems like a non-issue in the grand scale of things, but Tsunami's of the past didn't do this. M…

More of a concern in the bay area, the geological composition is sand, mud, basic river delta sediments--not the most stable stuff. eg: During a hypothetical Earthquake in the Bay area, the liquefaction of sand occurs, which causes underground structures to move upward due to buoyancy (think of a lower level parking garage), and the soil mass from the structure collapses. the liquefied sand diffuses to the surroundin…

Yeah, also quite bad, I've seen the aftermath of this liquefaction in Japan. Whole apartment blocks topped over with seemingly good foundations.

Re: Seismologists suspect earthquake on San Andreas Fault is imminent

#55
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think op is referring to a TS Elliot poem

This is the way the world ends This is the way the world ends This is the way the world ends Not with a bang but a whimper. --- Excerpt from The Hollow Men by T.S. Eliot[0]. I'll have to add it to the page, but it was also used as the introduction for The Compound by S.A. Bodeen[1]. It's an interesting young adult novel about a family living underground in a state of the art bomb shelter after a nuclear attack occurs…

We would also have accepted, "The best lack all conviction / While the worst are filled with passionate intensity." Even though that's Yeats.

Re: Seismologists suspect earthquake on San Andreas Fault is imminent

#56
post #2

Funny. In with the roar of multiple paragraphs spent explaining all the reasons this spot will be the next big one. And then out with a quick whimper that the scientists are not convicted.

Um, no. Right from the start of the article it was clear this was a relatively small, periodic family of earthquakes, nothing like "the big one".

Re: Seismologists suspect earthquake on San Andreas Fault is imminent

#57
post #38

I wonder what happens if someone hits the fault with an explosive while it's in this state of "near-earthquake". Would it make it better by relieving pressure or make it worse by triggering the main event?

Basically neither really. the energy unleashed by even moderate earthquakes through natural tectonic tension release is proportional to the degree of accumulated tension getting released, and in all such cases, these tensions contain a potential energy that is far, far greater than what any normal nuke generates. In other words, a nuke placed in the San Andreas fault even with extreme care to have maximum impact, wou…

The energy released by an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 on SA is approximately 6.31×10^16 joules. When converted to an equivalent in terms of TNT, this energy amounts to about 15,080 kilotons of TNT. (About the same as the Castle Bravo nuclear test)

Now, to use such a weapon to cause a stress-relief earthquake, some factors need to come into play: Depth at which the device should be detonated to optimize stress relief without causing surface damage. detailed seismic imaging and rock mechanics studies. Geometry of the fault zone.

Even w/ a Castle Bravo type test, massive radioactive fallout would occur in groundwater as well as air. There's also the chance that such an event would cause local volcanic activity.

Re: Seismologists suspect earthquake on San Andreas Fault is imminent

#58
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

What the hell is a "public health influencer"?

An epidemiologist with a Twitter account.

Secondarily anyone else with a doctorate and a Twitter account; a lot of doctors started popular alarmist accounts and then you'd find out they were doctors of something completely unrelated.

Re: Seismologists suspect earthquake on San Andreas Fault is imminent

#59
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Do you have a screenshot or copy of such a video?

Keeping screenshots of that would be a weird hobby. I was thinking of tweets mostly.

Here's the timeline of misguided Vox articles.

https://www.vox.com/2020/2/7/21126758/coronavirus-xenophobia... - early "the real pandemic is racism" stuff (note this is hard to find because the phrase was later totally overwritten by George Floyd/BLM protests)

https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/2/13/21128209/coronavirus-fe... - people in Silicon Valley care too much

There's some references to Berkeley health officers posting the kind of thing I mean, but they deleted it.

Soon after, of course, everyone would switch to "it's real and it's here" and instead start giving out irrelevant health advice about handwashing because the CDC was biased towards treating everything like a food poisoning case.

https://www.vox.com/2020/2/28/21157769/how-to-prevent-the-co...

Re: Seismologists suspect earthquake on San Andreas Fault is imminent

#60
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have a screenshot or copy of such a video?

Keeping screenshots of that would be a weird hobby. I was thinking of tweets mostly. Here's the timeline of misguided Vox articles. https://www.vox.com/2020/2/7/21126758/coronavirus-xenophobia... - early "the real pandemic is racism" stuff (note this is hard to find because the phrase was later totally overwritten by George Floyd/BLM protests) https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/2/13/21128209/coronavirus-fe... - people i…

From your first article above: "At a middle school a few blocks from my house, a rumor circulated among the children that all Asian kids have the coronavirus and should be quarantined.”

How is that not racism and xenophobia?

The parts about washing your hands was because they didn't know that the virus was airborne yet. They were giving out reasonable recommendations while waiting for more information. What were you expecting? That they would magically know exactly what to do for this particular pandemic from day one?

Do you realise if they did, then it would have been one of those "oh the experts panicked and nothing bad happened" (like previous sars outbreaks). There's inherent asymmetry in the possible outcomes.

Post reply on HN