Should I be worried ? I just landed at SFO
No.
Seismologists suspect earthquake on San Andreas Fault is imminent
31–40 of 68 posts
Re: Seismologists suspect earthquake on San Andreas Fault is imminent
#32Funny. In with the roar of multiple paragraphs spent explaining all the reasons this spot will be the next big one. And then out with a quick whimper that the scientists are not convicted.
Didn't happen in the last five days either. Does that make it more likely or less?
I’m an independent statistic who don’t need no covariant!
Re: Seismologists suspect earthquake on San Andreas Fault is imminent
#33Earlier quoted context omitted.
And then out with a quick whimper that the scientists are not convicted. Well, no, this isn't Italy.
I think op is referring to a TS Elliot poem
Actually, I think the reference might be to this:
https://www.theverge.com/2014/11/11/7193391/italy-judges-cle...
Re: Seismologists suspect earthquake on San Andreas Fault is imminent
#34Earlier quoted context omitted.
And then out with a quick whimper that the scientists are not convicted. Well, no, this isn't Italy.
I think op is referring to a TS Elliot poem
Whereas GP is making reference to a case in which Italian seismologists were literally convicted after their predictions did not come true.
Re: Seismologists suspect earthquake on San Andreas Fault is imminent
#35Should I be worried ? I just landed at SFO
For what it's worth, the last major earthquake here killed 63 people, the significant majority of which were on various freeways and bridges that collapsed. All infrastructure has undergone significant retrofitting since then.
Re: Seismologists suspect earthquake on San Andreas Fault is imminent
#36I sat in on a lecture by a Stanford geophysicist, and he said that seismologists have every legal incentive to communicate that a large earthquake is imminent in the Bay, even if their work is inconclusive or suggests otherwise. They might get sued or prosecuted if they say it’s safe and a big one strikes.
Are there any other professional category that gets sued if they don't predict disaster within tight timing? Imagine suing epidemiologists because they didn't predict Covid-19 in a timely manner.
No epidemiologists were going around saying "eh it could never happen". In fact, many of them were warning after SARS. Trump actually took apart Obama's virus disaster-readiness warehouses and other programs in 2018-2019. Very bad timing, many such cases!
I would suspect the majority of disaster-related experts are not going to be so laid back.
Re: Seismologists suspect earthquake on San Andreas Fault is imminent
#37Should I be worried ? I just landed at SFO
Yes
Re: Seismologists suspect earthquake on San Andreas Fault is imminent
#38I wonder what happens if someone hits the fault with an explosive while it's in this state of "near-earthquake". Would it make it better by relieving pressure or make it worse by triggering the main event?
Re: Seismologists suspect earthquake on San Andreas Fault is imminent
#39Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's "on San Andreas Fault", in the usual "the"-dropping style of headlines. The fault is named after the town of San Andreas but extends well beyond it.
The town motto of San Andreas explicitly disclaims responsibility for the geographic feature.
the town motto of San Andreas, California is "It's not our fault."
Re: Seismologists suspect earthquake on San Andreas Fault is imminent
#40Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's "on San Andreas Fault", in the usual "the"-dropping style of headlines. The fault is named after the town of San Andreas but extends well beyond it.
The town motto of San Andreas explicitly disclaims responsibility for the geographic feature.
"it's not our fault"