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Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

forbes.com

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Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#121

Post by 082349872349872 »

082349872349872 wrote: post #7

I invoice in USD and have expenses in a different currency, and while I've seen a few (~5) percent decline in the exchange rate since then, it's been nowhere near 18%.

Good point about local inflation. Both the World Bank and my gov't claim 4% from 3.22 to 3.24 (or ~2% a year, which would explain why I hadn't noticed)

So 5+4 = 9% imputed inflation for USD since 2022?

(or no more than 5% in 2022 if it's been steady ... but still time to bump my rates; thanks you all for convincing me to go through this exercise!)

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#122

Post by tonymet »

adriand wrote: post #33
tonymet wrote: post #16

I recommend people use many different indicators to get a mental model of inflation, and you will notice that CPI does not represent inflation well. The memes of Arby’s 5 for $5 becoming 4 for $10 are more informative than the CPI numbers. Don’t let the shock at the grocery store wear off – it’s real and painful despite what the news tells you. True inflation would measure the amount of prosperity achieved per hour w…

But it’s not like our standard of living has remained static while we need to work more. A lot has changed. In 1960 the average single family home was 1300 square feet, now it’s more than double that, and it’s packed with amazing amenities and entertainment options. What would an iPad cost in 1960? Obviously the question is kind of nonsensical and yet on the other hand, if you were to try and quantify the price of ou…

Some aspects have improved, and others have declined.

Home entertainment has more options, we spend more time at the TV and computer.

Other aspects of life have declined.

It's challenging because there are qualitative and aesthetic aspects to the process, so it takes some discussion to come up with a good understanding.

Regardless CPI is misleading. The amount of time spent working over a lifetime to support the family and cover taxes has grown significantly, at a higher rate than CPI suggests.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#123

Post by tonymet »

woodruffw wrote: post #119
tonymet wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are not census statistics they are an amateur assembling statistics using public census data. The methods are not published

The method is listed in the description below the statistics. Again: if you think these numbers are suspect, you are encouraged to find a different citation that contradicts them. Without that, your complaints are unsubstantiated.

[flagged]

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#124

Post by adriand »

lispisok wrote: post #105
whateveracct wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also it's not hard to find cheap food at the grocery store. Whole free-range, locally grown chicken for 99c/lb is commonplace in my neck of the woods. It's the convenience/brand power stuff that is really spiked. Fast food falls into that.

Honestly, calling BS on this. The cheapest large package mass produced factory farmed chicken at my local big retailer grocery store is $2/lb. The nicer stuff is more like $5/lb.

If people want cheaper food, they should eat less meat or no meat at all. It blows my mind how cheap it is to eat a vegetarian diet. Dried black beans are $1/pound. That is a lot of food for very little money! Rice is super cheap. Potatoes are super cheap.

If you rely on staple vegetarian food for the bulk of your calories and then “decorate” with fresh fruits and vegetables, you can eat very well for not a lot of money.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#125

Post by ein0p »

throw0101c wrote: post #91
ein0p wrote: post #32

That seems subjectively accurate, looking at my grocery store receipts and $13/lb meat. Certainly more accurate than “3.5%” bullshit the “free press” is asking us to believe.

> That seems subjectively accurate, looking at my grocery store receipts and $13/lb meat. Certainly more accurate than “3.5%” bullshit the “free press” is asking us to believe. You do know that the CPI (and CPE) are made up of components, right? Like Shelter, Energy, Transportation… Food. Food can go up more that 3.5% while other items (like Transportation/Energy/Oil) go down, so on average the prices you see have go…

CPI is designed to make the government look good, hence the article.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#126

Post by maxerickson »

tonymet wrote: post #106
randomdata wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In other words you had 1 man working 50 hours a week afford a house... With inflation, we want to know about the change in value of the dollar only . We don't want to factor in the change in value of houses, food, etc. There is a place for understanding that too, but inflation is not it. Something like a cost of living index is more suitable to that kind of information. On that note, houses are unquestionably more…

Pick whatever word you like if "inflation" is reserved for economists because regular people are "just too dumb to understand". We need a concept for debasement / hidden tax that allows people to hold their policymakers accountable. My point is that CPI isn't it, it underestimates true inflation by 3-5x or more , and it interferes with good governance. If the govt wants money from the people, they need to tax them an…

5x?

And you think the US in general has gotten more dangerous?

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#127

Post by throw0101c »

ein0p wrote: post #125
throw0101c wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That seems subjectively accurate, looking at my grocery store receipts and $13/lb meat. Certainly more accurate than “3.5%” bullshit the “free press” is asking us to believe. You do know that the CPI (and CPE) are made up of components, right? Like Shelter, Energy, Transportation… Food. Food can go up more that 3.5% while other items (like Transportation/Energy/Oil) go down, so on average the prices you see have go…

CPI is designed to make the government look good, hence the article.

> CPI is designed to make the government look good, hence the article.

The CPI is run by the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

> The "food price index" evolved into what we now call the Consumer Price Index (CPI). During World War I, rapid in­creases in prices, particularly in shipbuilding centers, made a more comprehensive index essential for calculating cost-of-living adjust­ments in wages. Studies of family expenditures were conducted in 92 industrial centers in 1917–19 in order to provide appropriate weighting patterns for the index. Periodic collection of prices was started and, in 1919, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) began publication of separate consumer price indexes for 32 cities. Regular publication of a national index, the U.S. city average, began in 1921, and indexes were estimated back to 1913.

* https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/cpi/history.htm

It is one of most examined numbers in statistics, and while the "best" way† to do things is debated, are there any non-tin-foil hat people that think that the numbers are actually wrong given the published methodologies? Entire research projects (which have released source code) have examined the official numbers and found that they track things fairly well:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIT_Billion_Prices_project

† Often no such thing exists, but rather trade-offs in various metrics.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#128

Post by bryanlarsen »

huytersd wrote: post #76
tossandthrow wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The main thing is, that I could actually support a household of 6 people on a single income if I was allowed to fix the comfort at the 60s level. 1. No flying on vacation and only simple camping as vacation 2. No technology: Computers, phone, television. Nothing, and no associated costs with subscriptions, etc. 3. Eat like it was the 60s, mainly potatoes (I am from Northern Europe). That said: I truly believe in the…

Mainly potatoes is bullshit.

Not for Northern Europe in the 50's.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#129

Post by bryanlarsen »

tonymet wrote: post #97
ProfessorLayton wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are 153 million more people in the U.S. today than in 1963. The reason these neighborhoods are exclusive to the wealthy is that housing there is scarce despite growing demand due to job growth. Housing in places like the Bay Area is such a big portion of monthly expenses that stuff like Arby's 4 for $10 or whatever isn't whats hurting people the most. Lots of these issues just come down to housing and restricti…

95% of zips in 1963 were safe and livable. Now everyone is competing to live in 15% of zipcodes You address the supply side of the "housing crisis", what about demand?

> 95% of zips in 1963 were safe and livable.

95% of white suburban zips might have been safe and livable, but nowhere close to 95% of all zips.

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