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Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

forbes.com

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Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#101

Post by decremental »

tonymet wrote: post #97
ProfessorLayton wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are 153 million more people in the U.S. today than in 1963. The reason these neighborhoods are exclusive to the wealthy is that housing there is scarce despite growing demand due to job growth. Housing in places like the Bay Area is such a big portion of monthly expenses that stuff like Arby's 4 for $10 or whatever isn't whats hurting people the most. Lots of these issues just come down to housing and restricti…

95% of zips in 1963 were safe and livable. Now everyone is competing to live in 15% of zipcodes You address the supply side of the "housing crisis", what about demand?

[dead]

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#102

Post by abduhl »

tonymet wrote: post #95
woodruffw wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Remember in 1963 only the man was working, and typically supported 4 kids, a wife and often parents in the home. This is a ridiculous exaggeration: the average US household was 3.7 people in the 1960s, not over 6[1]. There are good reasons to hold politicians to task for recent abnormally high inflation. But this comment is more of an atavistic fever dream of the past than an expression of those reasons. Edit: anot…

the average lifespan in the middle ages was 35 too. does that mean there were no old people?

No, but the “typical” person isn’t old. Just like the “typical” man didn’t support 6 people in the 1960s.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#103

Post by ProfessorLayton »

tonymet wrote: post #97
ProfessorLayton wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are 153 million more people in the U.S. today than in 1963. The reason these neighborhoods are exclusive to the wealthy is that housing there is scarce despite growing demand due to job growth. Housing in places like the Bay Area is such a big portion of monthly expenses that stuff like Arby's 4 for $10 or whatever isn't whats hurting people the most. Lots of these issues just come down to housing and restricti…

95% of zips in 1963 were safe and livable. Now everyone is competing to live in 15% of zipcodes You address the supply side of the "housing crisis", what about demand?

>You address the supply side of the "housing crisis"

Why the scare quotes especially when no such term was used?

>what about demand?

"...growing demand due to job growth" It's literally illegal to build enough housing in many, many places where jobs are via low height limits, absurd parking requirements, and large setbacks etc.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#104

Post by tonymet »

nytesky wrote: post #70
tonymet wrote: post #16

I recommend people use many different indicators to get a mental model of inflation, and you will notice that CPI does not represent inflation well. The memes of Arby’s 5 for $5 becoming 4 for $10 are more informative than the CPI numbers. Don’t let the shock at the grocery store wear off – it’s real and painful despite what the news tells you. True inflation would measure the amount of prosperity achieved per hour w…

The “one income household” model of the 50s worked for two reasons. 1) the rest of the world was in ruins, so for 50s-60s US was sole industrial power more or less. 2) artificial labor “scarcity” where POC and women were banned from many occupations. The remaining available labor (ie white men) had more leverage.

Is the argument that true inflation should be worse than CPI because it helps with diversity?

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#105

Post by lispisok »

whateveracct wrote: post #71
hklijlyh wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Also it's not hard to find cheap food at the grocery store. Whole free-range, locally grown chicken for 99c/lb is commonplace in my neck of the woods. It's the convenience/brand power stuff that is really spiked. Fast food falls into that.

Honestly, calling BS on this. The cheapest large package mass produced factory farmed chicken at my local big retailer grocery store is $2/lb. The nicer stuff is more like $5/lb.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#106

Post by tonymet »

randomdata wrote: post #41
tonymet wrote: post #16

I recommend people use many different indicators to get a mental model of inflation, and you will notice that CPI does not represent inflation well. The memes of Arby’s 5 for $5 becoming 4 for $10 are more informative than the CPI numbers. Don’t let the shock at the grocery store wear off – it’s real and painful despite what the news tells you. True inflation would measure the amount of prosperity achieved per hour w…

> In other words you had 1 man working 50 hours a week afford a house... With inflation, we want to know about the change in value of the dollar only . We don't want to factor in the change in value of houses, food, etc. There is a place for understanding that too, but inflation is not it. Something like a cost of living index is more suitable to that kind of information. On that note, houses are unquestionably more…

Pick whatever word you like if "inflation" is reserved for economists because regular people are "just too dumb to understand".

We need a concept for debasement / hidden tax that allows people to hold their policymakers accountable.

My point is that CPI isn't it, it underestimates true inflation by 3-5x or more , and it interferes with good governance.

If the govt wants money from the people, they need to tax them and be held accountable for the policy

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#107

Post by woodruffw »

tonymet wrote: post #95
woodruffw wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Remember in 1963 only the man was working, and typically supported 4 kids, a wife and often parents in the home. This is a ridiculous exaggeration: the average US household was 3.7 people in the 1960s, not over 6[1]. There are good reasons to hold politicians to task for recent abnormally high inflation. But this comment is more of an atavistic fever dream of the past than an expression of those reasons. Edit: anot…

the average lifespan in the middle ages was 35 too. does that mean there were no old people?

Your comment explicitly mentions averages. It's a matter of basic fact that the average working-age male in 1963 was not supporting 5 other people with his salary.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#108

Post by tonymet »

abduhl wrote: post #102
tonymet wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the average lifespan in the middle ages was 35 too. does that mean there were no old people?

No, but the “typical” person isn’t old. Just like the “typical” man didn’t support 6 people in the 1960s.

[flagged]

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#109

Post by [deleted] »

fragmede wrote: post #80
adriand wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it’s not like our standard of living has remained static while we need to work more. A lot has changed. In 1960 the average single family home was 1300 square feet, now it’s more than double that, and it’s packed with amazing amenities and entertainment options. What would an iPad cost in 1960? Obviously the question is kind of nonsensical and yet on the other hand, if you were to try and quantify the price of ou…

What did a college education cost in 1960? I would gladly trade WFH to be the one person supporting a family of 6. (Me, partner, two kids, two grandparents.) The Internet's great and all (although sometimes it seems like it was a mistake), but we're so far from 1 very average person being able to support a middle class life style for 6 people. Median income in 1960 was $5,600, which is equivalent to $60,000 today, bu…

[deleted]

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#110

Post by woodruffw »

fragmede wrote: post #80
adriand wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it’s not like our standard of living has remained static while we need to work more. A lot has changed. In 1960 the average single family home was 1300 square feet, now it’s more than double that, and it’s packed with amazing amenities and entertainment options. What would an iPad cost in 1960? Obviously the question is kind of nonsensical and yet on the other hand, if you were to try and quantify the price of ou…

What did a college education cost in 1960? I would gladly trade WFH to be the one person supporting a family of 6. (Me, partner, two kids, two grandparents.) The Internet's great and all (although sometimes it seems like it was a mistake), but we're so far from 1 very average person being able to support a middle class life style for 6 people. Median income in 1960 was $5,600, which is equivalent to $60,000 today, bu…

> Which isn't a lot in the FAANG world, but the point is that a very average not-very-smart person was able to provide for that many people back then

They weren't. The average household income in the 1960s (i.e., from a single breadwinner) was supporting a household of 3-4 people not 6[1][2]. The claim that you could support a family of 6 on a single breadwinner's income in 1960 and achieve anything close to 2024's quality of life is an egregious misrepresentation by the GGP.

[1]: https://www.statista.com/statistics/183657/average-size-of-a...

[2]: https://www.statista.com/statistics/183648/average-size-of-h...

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