I invoice in USD and have expenses in a different currency, and while I've seen a few (~5) percent decline in the exchange rate since then, it's been nowhere near 18%.
That will happen if the other currency is also inflating at the same time.
Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula
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Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula
#22Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula
#23[flagged]
It is at least a bipartisan hobby, to go searching for any alternative numbers whenever there's good news for your opponent. Though this is an impressive amping up: "previous" is 1983. This isn't some dastardly bit of math by the present administration. This dates back to Reagan. Of more interest is that consumer sentiment is indeed grumpy, and that is a big deal with an election coming up. They don't really need thi…
Searching for alternative numbers to explain an anomaly, e.g. that consumer sentiment hasn't improved even though inflation is down, is what scientists do, although it is certainly not immune to partisan bias.
Have you got a critique of the paper's explanation and an example of how you think it's mendacious? The original is here: https://www.nber.org/papers/w32163. I don't have access, but the Forbes story says they check their result in Europe and it continues to hold.
Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula
#24[flagged]
You can read it directly from Secretary of the Treasury to Bill Clinton, and the Director of the National Economic Council to Barak Obama.
https://twitter.com/LHSummers/status/1762607548828360798
So the number still looks like 18%, even when you take out the attacks on the author of the article who was accurately reporting what Summers said.
Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula
#25Inflation expectations are one of the key elements that determine next years inflation.
The main reason they have always "fiddled" the public inflation numbers is if they reported actual inflation people would set their expectations on that - and it would make next years inflation worse/more volatile.
insiders generally dont care about the public figures - they have their own in house statisticians to give them the real picture.
Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula
#26I invoice in USD and have expenses in a different currency, and while I've seen a few (~5) percent decline in the exchange rate since then, it's been nowhere near 18%.
Most currencies are experiencing inflation (for mostly the same reasons); so it tends to cancel out in the exchange rates.
Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula
#27Inflation expectations are one of the key elements that determine next years inflation. The main reason they have always "fiddled" the public inflation numbers is if they reported actual inflation people would set their expectations on that - and it would make next years inflation worse/more volatile. insiders generally dont care about the public figures - they have their own in house statisticians to give them the r…
> they have their own in house statisticians to give them the real picture.
I wonder if that is behind some price increases blamed on inflation that are larger than inflation. They mean inflation not CPI.
Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula
#28Short version: if you include interest rates in the inflation metric, 2022 looked bad.
Also food and housing costs
Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula
#29I invoice in USD and have expenses in a different currency, and while I've seen a few (~5) percent decline in the exchange rate since then, it's been nowhere near 18%.
And? That's not what inflation is
Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula
#30[flagged]
It is at least a bipartisan hobby, to go searching for any alternative numbers whenever there's good news for your opponent. Though this is an impressive amping up: "previous" is 1983. This isn't some dastardly bit of math by the present administration. This dates back to Reagan. Of more interest is that consumer sentiment is indeed grumpy, and that is a big deal with an election coming up. They don't really need thi…
mendacious explanations
What specific lie are you calling out here?